Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

Influence diagnostics for linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors

We introduce in this paper the class of linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors. The score functions and the Fisher information matrices are derived for the parameters of interest and an iterative process is proposed for the parameter estimation. Some robustness aspects of the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The normal curvatures of local influence are also derived for some usual perturbation schemes whereas diagnostic graphics to assess the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates are proposed. The methodology is applied to analyse the daily log excess return on the Microsoft whose empirical distributions appear to have AR(1) and heavy-tailed errors. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Wavelet regression with correlated errors on a piecewise Holder class

This paper generalizes the methodology of Cat and Brown [Cai, T., Brown, L.D., 1998. Wavelet shrinkage for nonequispaced samples. The Annals of Statistics 26, 1783-1799] for wavelet shrinkage for nonequispaced samples, but in the presence of correlated stationary Gaussian errors. If the true function is a member of a piecewise Holder class, it is shown that, even for long memory errors, the rate of convergence of the procedure is almost-minimax relative to the independent and identically distributed errors case. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Efeitos do aparelho Jasper Jumper no tratamento da má oclusão de Classe II

OBJETIVO: o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar os efeitos esqueléticos e dentoalveolares do tratamento de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe II com o aparelho Jasper Jumper associado ao aparelho ortodôntico fixo, comparados a um grupo controle não-tratado. MÉTODOS: a amostra foi constituída por 47 indivíduos, divididos em dois grupos: Grupo 1, contendo 25 pacientes com idade média de 12,72 anos, tratados com o aparelho Jasper Jumper por um tempo médio de 2,15 anos; Grupo 2 (controle), composto por 22 indivíduos com idade média de 12,67 anos, não-submetidos a tratamento ortodôntico e com má oclusão de Classe II, observados por um período médio de 2,12 anos. Foram avaliadas as telerradiografias ao início e ao final do tratamento ortodôntico para o Grupo 1 e do período de observação para o Grupo 2. As variáveis cefalométricas iniciais, finais e as alterações com o tratamento foram comparadas entre os grupos por meio do teste t independente. RESULTADOS: em comparação ao grupo controle, o grupo Jasper Jumper apresentou maior restrição do deslocamento anterior da maxila e maior retrusão maxilar, melhora da relação maxilomandibular, diminuição da convexidade facial, maior protrusão e intrusão dos incisivos inferiores e maior extrusão dos molares inferiores, além de maior diminuição dos trespasses horizontal e vertical e maior melhora da relação molar. CONCLUSÃO: a correção da Classe II no grupo tratado com o Jasper Jumper e aparelhagem fixa se deu principalmente devido à restrição do crescimento maxilar, protrusão e intrusão dos incisivos inferiores e extrusão dos molares inferiores.

Avaliação cefalométrica das alterações dentoesqueléticas de jovens com má oclusão de Classe II dentária tratados com distalizadores Jones jig

OBJETIVO: esta pesquisa objetivou avaliar cefalometricamente as alterações dentoesqueléticas de jovens com Classe II dentária tratados com o distalizador Jones jig. METODOLOGIA: foram avaliados 30 pacientes, sendo 15 de cada gênero, com média de idades iniciais de 13,63 anos; brasileiros, naturais da cidade de Bauru/SP, caracterizados por má oclusão de Classe II, 1ª e 2ª divisões de Angle sem comprometimento esquelético. Os jovens foram tratados com aparelho Jones jig a fim de distalizar os molares superiores a uma relação molar de "super Classe I"; sendo que esse dispositivo permaneceu, em média, por 0,55 anos. Ao final da sobrecorreção, os molares distalizados receberam um botão de Nance e, como ancoragem extrabucal, o aparelho extrabucal (AEB) com tração média-alta, com o intuito de verticalizar e corrigir a angulação radicular dos molares distalizados. Foram realizadas telerradiografias em normal lateral inicial (T1) e pós-distalização (T2). As medidas cefalométricas foram submetidas ao teste t dependente de Student para avaliar as alterações de T1 para T2. RESULTADOS: com base nos resultados obtidos e a partir da metodologia empregada, observou-se alterações dentárias significativas, como a movimentação distal linear e angular, assim como a intrusão dos segundos e primeiros molares superiores no sentido vertical. Também se confirmou efeitos indesejáveis, como a perda de ancoragem refletida em mesialização, extrusão e angulação mesial dos segundos pré-molares, a protrusão dos incisivos superiores e o aumento do trespasse vertical e horizontal. Pode-se confirmar que certas movimentações dentárias promovem significativas alterações esqueléticas de estruturas localizadas à distância, ou seja, observou-se extrusão significativa dos segundos pré-molares superiores, o que resultou em rotação mandibular, aumento significativo da altura facial anteroinferior e protrusão do lábio inferior. CONCLUSÃO: pode-se concluir que o distalizador Jones jig promove, basicamente, alterações dentárias.

Communicative and psycholinguistic abilities in children with phenylketonuria and congenital hypothyroidism

The Neonatal Screening for Inborn Errors of Metabolism of the Association of Parents and Friends of Special Needs Individuals (APAE) - Bauru, Brazil, was implanted and accredited by the Brazilian Ministry of Health in 1998. It covers about 286 cities of the Bauru region and 420 collection spots. Their activities include screening, diagnosis, treatment and assistance to congenital hypothyroidism (CH) and phenylketonuria (PKU), among others. In 2005, a partnership was established with the Department of Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology, Bauru School of Dentistry, University of São Paulo, Bauru, seeking to characterize and to follow, by means of research studies, the development of the communicative abilities of children with CH and PKU. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe communicative and psycholinguistic abilities in children with CH and PKU. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-eight children (25 children aged 1 to 120 months with PKU and 43 children aged 1 to 60 months with CH) participated in the study. The handbooks were analyzed and different instruments were applied (Observation of Communication Behavior, Early Language Milestone Scale, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, Gesell & Amatruda's Behavioral Development Scale, Portage Operation Inventory, Language Development Evaluation Scale, Denver Developmental Screening Test, ABFW Child Language Test-phonology and Illinois Test of Psycholinguistic Abilities), according to the children's age group and developmental level. RESULTS: It was observed that the children with PKU and CH at risk for alterations in their developmental abilities (motor, cognitive, linguistic, adaptive and personal-social), mainly in the first years of life. Alterations in the psycholinguistic abilities were also found, mainly after the preschool age. Attention deficits, language and cognitive alterations were more often observed in children with CH, while attention deficits with hyperactivity and alterations in the personal-social, language and motor adaptive abilities were more frequent in children with PKU. CONCLUSION: CH and PKU can cause communicative and psycholinguistic alterations that compromise the communication and affect the social integration and learning of these individuals, proving the need of having these abilities assisted by a speech and language pathologist.

Association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern

The purpose of the present study was to assess the association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern. The sample comprised eighty-six cephalograms obtained during the orthodontic pretreatment phase and analyzed using the Radiocef program to identify the craniofacial landmarks and perform orthodontic measurements. The variables utilized were overbite, the Jarabak percentage and the Vert index, as well as classifications resulting from the interpretation of these measurements. In all the statistical tests, a significance level of 5% was considered. Measurement reliability was checked by calculating method error. Weighted Kappa analysis showed that agreement between the facial types defined by the Vert index and the direction of growth trend established by the Jarabak percentage was not satisfactory. Owing to this lack of equivalency, a potential association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern was evaluated using the chi-square test, considering the two methods separately. No relationship of dependence between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern was revealed by the results obtained. Therefore, it can be concluded that the classification of facial growth pattern will not be the same when considering the Jarabak and the Ricketts anayses, and that increased overbite cannot be associated with a braquifacial growth pattern, nor can openbite be associated with a dolichofacial growth pattern.

Sob o signo de Darwin? Sobre o mau uso de uma quimera

No ano de 2003 Francisco de Oliveria publicou um artigo intitulado "O Ornitorrinco" no qual fez considerações críticas sobre a conjectura politico-social daquele momento histórico. Tal artigo é permeado por um paralelo entre o evolucionismo darwinista e a visão do autor sobre a sociedade brasileira contemporânea. Entretanto, ao fazer tal analogia ele incorre numa série de equívocos teóricos sobre a teoria evolucionista. Tais equívocos consistem, em grande parte, numa substuição indevida entre aquilo que ficou conhecido como Darwinismo Social e a teoria neodarwinista como entendida pelos seus atuais proponentes. O presente trabalho identifica estes equívocos e os contextualiza dentro da teoria neodarwiniana. Além disso, fazemos um recorte histórico do processo de formação do pensamento evolucionista para enfatizar que a associação entre biologia e darwinismo social é mais complexa do que geralmente se assume.

Pre-processing for noise detection in gene expression classification data

Due to the imprecise nature of biological experiments, biological data is often characterized by the presence of redundant and noisy data. This may be due to errors that occurred during data collection, such as contaminations in laboratorial samples. It is the case of gene expression data, where the equipments and tools currently used frequently produce noisy biological data. Machine Learning algorithms have been successfully used in gene expression data analysis. Although many Machine Learning algorithms can deal with noise, detecting and removing noisy instances from the training data set can help the induction of the target hypothesis. This paper evaluates the use of distance-based pre-processing techniques for noise detection in gene expression data classification problems. This evaluation analyzes the effectiveness of the techniques investigated in removing noisy data, measured by the accuracy obtained by different Machine Learning classifiers over the pre-processed data.

Keratoconus prediction using a finite element model of the cornea with local biomechanical properties

PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

Resultados preliminares de um sistema de topografia de grande-ângulo usando videoceratógrafo com discos de Plácido

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver a instrumentação e o "software" para topografia de córnea de grande-ângulo usando o tradicional disco de Plácido. O objetivo é permitir o mapeamento de uma região maior da córnea para topógrafos de córnea que usem a técnica de Plácido, fazendo-se uma adaptação simples na mira. MÉTODOS: Utilizando o tradicional disco de Plácido de um topógrafo de córnea tradicional, 9 LEDs (Light Emitting Diodes) foram adaptados no anteparo cônico para que o paciente voluntário pudesse fixar o olhar em diferentes direções. Para cada direção imagens de Plácido foram digitalizadas e processadas para formar, por meio de algoritmo envolvendo elementos sofisticados de computação gráfica, um mapa tridimensional completo da córnea toda. RESULTADOS: Resultados apresentados neste trabalho mostram que uma região de até 100% maior pode ser mapeada usando esta técnica, permitindo que o clínico mapeie até próximo ao limbo da córnea. São apresentados aqui os resultados para uma superfície esférica de calibração e também para uma córnea in vivo com alto grau de astigmatismo, mostrando a curvatura e elevação. CONCLUSÃO: Acredita-se que esta nova técnica pode propiciar a melhoria de alguns processos, como por exemplo: adaptação de lentes de contato, algoritmos para ablações costumizadas para hipermetropia, entre outros.

Determinação de minoxidil em formulações farmacêuticas usando permanganometria

Um método clássico para a determinação de minoxidil em formulações farmacêuticas é proposto baseado na reação redox entre KMnO4 e o minoxidil. Os melhores resultados na permanganometria foram obtidos usando concentrações de 1,00 x 10-2 mol L-1 para o permanganato. O minoxidil foi usado como titulante na concentração de 2,00 x 10-2 mol L-1 diluído em solução de H2SO4 2,00 mol L-1. As recuperações para método proposto foram da ordem de 94,5 a 95,2 % dependendo da amostra comercial. O método proposto foi aplicado à amostras comerciais contendo minoxidil e comparado com resultados obtidos a partir de procedimentos cromatográficos com erros relativos da ordem de -1 a -5,26%. O procedimento se mostrou simples, rápido e pode ser uma alternativa para a determinação de minoxidil em amostras farmacêuticas, nas quais a concentração do fármaco é relativamente elevada.

Occurrence, distribution and abundance of Halobates micans Eschscholtz, 1822 (Heteroptera, Gerridae) along the southeastern Brazilian coast

Data collected during an oceanographic cruise along the southeastern Brazilian coast from Cape Frio (22° 58' S) and Paraná (27° 50' S) in March 1982 showed that the marine insect Halobates micans occurred along the Southeastern Brazilian Bight, but in lower abundance in low-temperature areas due to the intrusion and upwelling of South Atlantic Central Water, and in low-salinity areas in Coastal Water. Insect capture was higher at night and in the oligotrophic Tropical Water. The number of nymphs and adult females was higher, probably because of an active breeding season during the austral summer. Adult sex ratio was 1.3:1.0 (F:M). Floating gas vesicles of benthic Sargassum spp. and petroleum lumps were used by females for egg-laying.