A flexible consensus scheme for multicriteria group decision making under linguistic assessments

The present paper proposes a flexible consensus scheme for group decision making, which allows one to obtain a consistent collective opinion, from information provided by each expert in terms of multigranular fuzzy estimates. It is based on a linguistic hierarchical model with multigranular sets of linguistic terms, and the choice of the most suitable set is a prerogative of each expert. From the human viewpoint, using such model is advantageous, since it permits each expert to utilize linguistic terms that reflect more adequately the level of uncertainty intrinsic to his evaluation. From the operational viewpoint, the advantage of using such model lies in the fact that it allows one to express the linguistic information in a unique domain, without losses of information, during the discussion process. The proposed consensus scheme supposes that the moderator can interfere in the discussion process in different ways. The intervention can be a request to any expert to update his opinion or can be the adjustment of the weight of each expert`s opinion. An optimal adjustment can be achieved through the execution of an optimization procedure that searches for the weights that maximize a corresponding soft consensus index. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the presented consensus scheme, a technique for multicriteria analysis, based on fuzzy preference relation modeling, is utilized for solving a hypothetical enterprise strategy planning problem, generated with the use of the Balanced Scorecard methodology. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria analysis in decision making under information uncertainty

This paper presents results of research related to multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty. The Bell-man-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment is utilized for analyzing multicriteria optimization models (< X, M > models) under deterministic information. Its application conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of analyzing associated maxmin problems. This circumstance permits one to generalize the classic approach to considering the uncertainty of quantitative information (based on constructing and analyzing payoff matrices reflecting effects which can be obtained for different combinations of solution alternatives and the so-called states of nature) in monocriteria decision making to multicriteria problems. Considering that the uncertainty of information can produce considerable decision uncertainty regions, the resolving capacity of this generalization does not always permit one to obtain unique solutions. Taking this into account, a proposed general scheme of multicriteria decision making under information uncertainty also includes the construction and analysis of the so-called < X, R > models (which contain fuzzy preference relations as criteria of optimality) as a means for the subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty regions. The paper results are of a universal character and are illustrated by a simple example. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Functionality of the approach of hierarchical analysis in the full cost accounting in the IRP of a metropolitan airport

This work shows the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in the full cost accounting (FCA) within the integrated resource planning (IRP) process. For this purpose, a pioneer case was developed and different energy solutions of supply and demand for a metropolitan airport (Congonhas) were considered [Moreira, E.M., 2005. Modelamento energetico para o desenvolvimento limpo de aeroporto metropolitano baseado na filosofia do PIR-O caso da metropole de Sao Paulo. Dissertacao de mestrado, GEPEA/USP]. These solutions were compared and analyzed utilizing the software solution ""Decision Lens"" that implements the AHP. The final part of this work has a classification of resources that can be considered to be the initial target as energy resources, thus facilitating the restraints of the IRP of the airport and setting parameters aiming at sustainable development. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences

This paper presents new insights and novel algorithms for strategy selection in sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences; that is, where some strategies may be incomparable with respect to expected utility. We assume that incomparability amongst strategies is caused by indeterminacy/imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for consequentialist strategy selection: Gamma-Maximin, Gamma-Maximax, Gamma-Maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We focus on the popular decision tree and influence diagram representations. Algorithms resort to linear/multilinear programming; we describe implementation and experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design of pressure vessels using shape optimization: An integrated approach

Previous papers related to the optimization of pressure vessels have considered the optimization of the nozzle independently from the dished end. This approach generates problems such as thickness variation from nozzle to dished end (coupling cylindrical region) and, as a consequence, it reduces the optimality of the final result which may also be influenced by the boundary conditions. Thus, this work discusses shape optimization of axisymmetric pressure vessels considering an integrated approach in which the entire pressure vessel model is used in conjunction with a multi-objective function that aims to minimize the von-Mises mechanical stress from nozzle to head. Representative examples are examined and solutions obtained for the entire vessel considering temperature and pressure loading. It is noteworthy that different shapes from the usual ones are obtained. Even though such different shapes may not be profitable considering present manufacturing processes, they may be competitive for future manufacturing technologies, and contribute to a better understanding of the actual influence of shape in the behavior of pressure vessels. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stable Model Predictive Control for Integrating Systems with Optimizing Targets

This paper concern the development of a stable model predictive controller (MPC) to be integrated with real time optimization (RTO) in the control structure of a process system with stable and integrating outputs. The real time process optimizer produces Optimal targets for the system inputs and for Outputs that Should be dynamically implemented by the MPC controller. This paper is based oil a previous work (Comput. Chem. Eng. 2005, 29, 1089) where a nominally stable MPC was proposed for systems with the conventional control approach where only the outputs have set points. This work is also based oil the work of Gonzalez et at. (J. Process Control 2009, 19, 110) where the zone control of stable systems is studied. The new control for is obtained by defining ail extended control objective that includes input targets and zone controller the outputs. Additional decision variables are also defined to increase the set of feasible solutions to the control problem. The hard constraints resulting from the cancellation of the integrating modes Lit the end of the control horizon are softened,, and the resulting control problem is made feasible to a large class of unknown disturbances and changes of the optimizing targets. The methods are illustrated with the simulated application of the proposed,approaches to a distillation column of the oil refining industry.

Integrated analysis of cooling water systems: Modeling and experimental validation

Cooling towers are widely used in many industrial and utility plants as a cooling medium, whose thermal performance is of vital importance. Despite the wide interest in cooling tower design, rating and its importance in energy conservation, there are few investigations concerning the integrated analysis of cooling systems. This work presents an approach for the systemic performance analysis of a cooling water system. The approach combines experimental design with mathematical modeling. An experimental investigation was carried out to characterize the mass transfer in the packing of the cooling tower as a function of the liquid and gas flow rates, whose results were within the range of the measurement accuracy. Then, an integrated model was developed that relies on the mass and heat transfer of the cooling tower, as well as on the hydraulic and thermal interactions with a heat exchanger network. The integrated model for the cooling water system was simulated and the temperature results agree with the experimental data of the real operation of the pilot plant. A case study illustrates the interaction in the system and the need for a systemic analysis of cooling water system. The proposed mathematical and experimental analysis should be useful for performance analysis of real-world cooling water systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outsourcing decision-making aspects considered by IT departments in Brazilian companies

The study of Information Technology (IT) outsourcing is relevant because companies are outsourcing their activities more than ever. An important IT outsourcing research area is the decision-making process. In other words, the comprehension of how companies decide about outsourcing their IT operations is relevant from research point of view. Therefore, the objective of this study is to understand the decision-making process used by Brazilian companies when outsourcing their IT operations. An analysis of the literature that refers to this subject showed that six aspects are usually considered by companies on the evaluation of IT outsourcing service alternatives. This research verified how these six aspects are considered by Brazilian companies on IT outsourcing decisions. The survey showed that Brazilian companies consider all the six aspects, but each of them has a different level of importance. The research also grouped the aspects according to their level of importance and interdependency, using factorial analysis to understand the logic behind IT outsourcing decision process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MEMS-based incandescent microlamps for integrated optics applications

In this work we present the fabrication and operation of incandescent microlamps for integrated optics applications. This microlamp emits white and infrared light from a chromium resistor embedded in a free-standing silicon oxynitride (SiO(x)N(y)) cantilever that can be coupled to an optical waveguide. In fact, the chromium resistor is sandwiched between layers of SiO(x)N(y) that isolate it from the atmosphere, while electric current heats the resistor to incandescent temperatures. The same SiO(x)N(y) material used in the microlamp fabrication is also used to produce the optical waveguides to allow a monolithic integration of light source and optical circuit. Front-side bulk micromachining of the silicon substrate in potassium hydroxide (KOH) solution is used to fabricate the cantilevers that thermally isolate the resistors from the substrate, thus reducing the heat transfer and the current required to light the lamp.

A Class of Channels Resulting in Ill-Convergence for CMA in Decision Feedback Equalizers

This paper analyzes the convergence of the constant modulus algorithm (CMA) in a decision feedback equalizer using only a feedback filter. Several works had already observed that the CMA presented a better performance than decision directed algorithm in the adaptation of the decision feedback equalizer, but theoretical analysis always showed to be difficult specially due to the analytical difficulties presented by the constant modulus criterion. In this paper, we surmount such obstacle by using a recent result concerning the CM analysis, first obtained in a linear finite impulse response context with the objective of comparing its solutions to the ones obtained through the Wiener criterion. The theoretical analysis presented here confirms the robustness of the CMA when applied to the adaptation of the decision feedback equalizer and also defines a class of channels for which the algorithm will suffer from ill-convergence when initialized at the origin.

Supercritical steam cycles and biomass integrated gasification combined cycles for sugarcane mills

Back in 1970s and 1980s, cogeneration plants in sugarcane mills were primarily designed to consume all bagasse, and produce steam and electricity to the process. The plants used medium pressure steam boilers (21 bar and 300 degrees C) and backpressure steam turbines. Some plants needed also an additional fuel, as the boilers were very inefficient. In those times, sugarcane bagasse did not have an economic value, and it was considered a problem by most mills. During the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, sugarcane industry faced an open market perspective, thus, there was a great necessity to reduce costs in the production processes. In addition, the economic value of by-products (bagasse, molasses, etc.) increased, and there was a possibility of selling electricity to the grid. This new scenario led to a search for more advanced cogeneration systems, based mainly on higher steam parameters (40-80 bar and 400-500 degrees C). In the future, some authors suggest that biomass integrated gasification combined cycles are the best alternative to cogeneration plants in sugarcane mills. These systems might attain 35-40% efficiency for the power conversion. However, supercritical steam cycles might also attain these efficiency values, what makes them an alternative to gasification-based systems. This paper presents a comparative thermoeconomic study of these systems for sugarcane mills. The configurations studied are based on real systems that could be adapted to biomass use. Different steam consumptions in the process are considered, in order to better integrate these configurations in the mill. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Definition of priority areas for forest conservation through the ordered weighted averaging method

The general objective of this study was to evaluate the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, integrated to a geographic information systems (GIS), in the definition of priority areas for forest conservation in a Brazilian river basin, aiming at to increase the regional biodiversity. We demonstrated how one could obtain a range of alternatives by applying OWA, including the one obtained by the weighted linear combination method and, also the use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to structure the decision problem and to assign the importance to each criterion. The criteria considered important to this study were: proximity to forest patches; proximity among forest patches with larger core area; proximity to surface water; distance from roads: distance from urban areas; and vulnerability to erosion. OWA requires two sets of criteria weights: the weights of relative criterion importance and the order weights. Thus, Participatory Technique was used to define the criteria set and the criterion importance (based in AHP). In order to obtain the second set of weights we considered the influence of each criterion, as well as the importance of each one, on this decision-making process. The sensitivity analysis indicated coherence among the criterion importance weights, the order weights, and the solution. According to this analysis, only the proximity to surface water criterion is not important to identify priority areas for forest conservation. Finally, we can highlight that the OWA method is flexible, easy to be implemented and, mainly, it facilitates a better understanding of the alternative land-use suitability patterns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adoption of integrated production of peach system in Parana State

The success in the adoption of peach integrated production (IP) was evaluated in small orchards of the Parana State. The importance of specific technical accompaniment; points of strangulating in adoption of technology and the classification of the areas to IP conformity were evaluated. The seasons 2005/2006 (without IP orientation) and 2006/2007 (with IP orientation) were compared considering 20 producers who were oriented monthly to attend the minimum requisites. The incidence of peach rust (Tranzschelia discolor) and of brown rot (Monilinia fructicola) in full bloom was evaluated in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons, as biological parameters to accompany the efficiency of system adoption. After the technical accompaniment in 2007/2008 season, the software APOIA-Novo Rural-PI (APOIA-PI) was applied to measure the conformity to IP in peach orchards. The conformity index of each orchard was compared to the minimum requisite to classify as IP (0.7). The major difficulties in register of field book were: pests monitoring; collect of climate data and the harvest evaluation. The technical accompaniment increased in 60% the conformity in use of field book. In 2007/2008 season, the brown rot incidence increased in some areas, caused by not following IP recommendations. The inadequate management caused the increment in pathogen inoculum, promoting the disease development in peach orchards. The APOIA-PI classified two orchards as good agricultural practices (GAP) (0.7 <= conformity index >= 0.4), two as integrated production (IP) (>= 0.7) and the other orchards had conformity index lower than 0.4.

An integrated molecular map of yellow passion fruit based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases

The development of genetic maps for auto-incompatible species, such as the yellow passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims f.flavicarpa Deg.) is restricted due to the unfeasibility of obtaining traditional mapping populations based on inbred lines. For this reason, yellow passion fruit linkage maps were generally constructed using a strategy known as two-way pseudo-testeross, based on monoparental dominant markers segregating in a 1:1 fashion. Due to the lack of information from these markers in one of the parents, two individual (parental) maps were obtained. However, integration of these maps is essential, and biparental markers can be used for such an operation. The objective of our study was to construct an integrated molecular map for a full-sib population of yellow passion fruit combining different loci configuration generated from amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) and microsatellite markers and using a novel approach based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases, specially designed for outcrossing species. Of the total number of loci, approximate to 76%, 21%, 0.7%, and 2.3% did segregate in 1:1, 3:1, 1:2:1, and 1:1:1:1 ratios, respectively. Ten linkage groups (LGs) were established with a logarithm of the odds (LOD) score >= 5.0 assuming a recombination fraction : <= 0.35. On average, 24 markers were assigned per LG, representing a total map length of 1687 cM, with a marker density of 6.9 cM. No markers were placed as accessories on the map as was done with previously constructed individual maps.