Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are biofuels a feasible option?

Recently a number of objections have been raised against the use of ethanol produced from agricultural products such as maize, sugarcane, wheat or sugar beets as a replacement for gasoline, despite some of their advantages such as being cleaner and to some extent renewable. We address these objections in this paper. Topics discussed include the ""corn connection"" (which was theorized to be a cause of deforestation in the Amazonia), the rise of food prices due to ethanol production and the real possibilities of ethanol in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It has been shown that such concerns are grossly exaggerated and that ethanol from sugarcane, as produced in Brazil, is the preferred option for the production of fuel not only in terms of cost but also as a favourable energy balance. Finally, the possibility of expanding ethanol production to other sugar-producing countries is also discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus citriodora) fresh or residue leaves on methane emission in vitro

Rumen fermentation and methane emission for eucalyptus (Eucalyptus citriodora) fresh leaves (FL) or residue leaves (RL), after essential oil extraction from eucalyptus leaves in comparison with alfalfa (Medicago sativa) hay, were investigated in vitro. Eucalyptus FL and RL were obtained from the Distillery Trees Barras Company, Torrinha City, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The semi-automatic system of gas production was used to measure gas production, methane emission and rumen fermentation after 24 h incubation in vitro. The results showed that the crude protein (CP) contents were 76.4, 78.1 and 181.9 g kg(-1) DM for eucalyptus FL, RL and alfalfa hay, respectively. The neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) and acid-detergent fibre (ADF) were significantly lower in eucalyptus FL and RL than alfalfa hay. The Eucalyptus fresh and residue leaves were rich in total phenols (TP) and total tannins (TT) but had negligible content of condensed tannins (CT). There was significant reduction in cumulative gas production about 54 and 51% with eucalyptus FL and RL, respectively, compared with alfalfa hay. The methane emission (mL/g DM) was reduced (P<0.05) by 53 and 57% with eucalyptus FL and RL, respectively, but the reduction was 21 and 16% when expressed on truly digested organic matter basis. There were a decline (P<0.05) in true dry and organic matter degradation in vitro in eucalyptus FL and RL compared with alfalfa hay substrate. The partitioning factor values were higher (P<0.05) in eucalyptus FL and RL than alfalfa hay. There was no significant difference observed between eucalyptus FL, RL and alfalfa hay in protozoa count. It is concluded that the eucalyptus leaves have potential effect to mitigate CH4 production in vitro, which may be attributed to a decrease in fermentable substrate rather than to a direct effect on methanogenesis.

H(2) infrared line emission from the ionized region of planetary nebulae

Context. The analysis and interpretation of the H(2) line emission from planetary nebulae have been done in the literature by assuming that the molecule survives only in regions where the hydrogen is neutral, as in photodissociation, neutral clumps, or shocked regions. However, there is strong observational and theoretical evidence that at least part of the H(2) emission is produced inside the ionized region of these objects. Aims. The aim of the present work is to calculate and analyze the infrared line emission of H(2) produced inside the ionized region of planetary nebulae using a one-dimensional photoionization code. Methods. The photoionization code Aangaba was improved in order to calculate the statistical population of the H(2) energy levels, as well as the intensity of the H(2) infrared emission lines in the physical conditions typical of planetary nebulae. A grid of models was obtained and the results then analyzed and compared with the observational data. Results. We show that the contribution of the ionized region to the H(2) line emission can be important, particularly in the case of nebulae with high-temperature central stars. This result explains why H(2) emission is more frequently observed in bipolar planetary nebulae (Gatley's rule), since this kind of object typically has hotter stars. Collisional excitation plays an important role in populating the rovibrational levels of the electronic ground state of H(2) molecules. Radiative mechanisms are also important, particularly for the upper vibrational levels. Formation pumping can have minor effects on the line intensities produced by de-excitation from very high rotational levels, especially in dense and dusty environments. We included the effect of the H(2) molecule on the thermal equilibrium of the gas, concluding that, in the ionized region, H(2) only contributes to the thermal equilibrium in the case of a very high temperature of the central star or a high dust-to-gas ratio, mainly through collisional de-excitation.

Use of blanks to determine in vitro net gas and methane production when using rumen fermentation modifiers

Blanks (flasks without substrate containing only inoculum and medium) are used in vitro to correct for gas. CH(4) and residual organic matter (OM) fermented in inoculum. However inclusion of rumen fermentation modifiers may affect fermentation of OM in the substrate and inoculum. Thus, data correction using blanks that lack additives may result in inaccurate adjustment for background fermentation. Our objective was to evaluate impacts of using blanks containing additive (i.e., specific blanks) or blanks without additive on estimation of in vitro net gas and CH(4) production. We used the semi-automatic in vitro gas production technique including monensin sodium at 2.08 mg/l of buffered rumen fluid (Experiment 1) or carvacrol, eugenol and 1,8-cineol at 667 mg/l (Experiment 2) in flasks with substrate and in blank flasks. At 16h of incubation, monensin reduced (P <= 0.02) total gas production in flasks containing substrate (162.0 ml versus 146.3 ml) and in blanks (84.4 ml versus 79.2 ml). Total methane production was also decreased (P <= 0.05) by adding monensin to flasks containing substrate (15.7 ml versus 11.9 ml) as well as in blanks (6.4 ml versus 5.0 ml). Inclusion of carvacrol or eugenol reduced (P <= 0.05) total gas and CH(4) production in flasks with substrate and in blanks, but in a more pronounced manner than monensin. For these three additives, correction for blank without additive resulted in lower net gas and CH(4) production than correction for a treatment specific blank. For instance, correcting carvacrol data using a blank without the additive resulted in negative net gas and CH(4) production (-6.5 and -1.5 ml. respectively). These biologically impossible results occurred because total gas and CH(4) production in blanks without carvacrol (46.1 and 2.1 ml, respectively) were higher than in flasks containing substrate plus carvacrol (39.7 and 0.6 ml, respectively). Results demonstrated that inclusion of rumen additives affected fermentation of OM in the substrate and the inoculum. Thus, correction of gas and CH(4) production using blanks without additives resulted in overestimation of these variables. Blanks containing the additive of interest should be included when rumen fermentation modifiers are evaluated in vitro. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of some essential oils on in vitro methane emission

The objectives of this study were to characterise four essential oils (EO) chemically and to evaluate their effect on ruminal fermentation and methane emission in vitro. The investigated EO were isolated from Achillea santolina, Artemisia judaica, Schinus terebinthifolius and Mentha microphylla, and supplemented at four levels (0, 25, 50 and 75 l) to 75ml of buffered rumen fluid plus 0.5 g of substrate. The main components of the EO were piperitone (49.1%) and camphor (34.5%) in A. judaica, 16-dimethyl 15-cyclooactdaiene (60.5%) in A. santolina, piperitone oxide (46.7%) and cis-piperitone oxide (28%) in M. microphylla, and -muurolene (45.3%) and -thujene (16.0%) in S. terebinthifolius. The EO from A. santolina (at 25 and 50 l), and all levels of A. judaica increased the gas production significantly, but S. terebinthifolius (at 50 and 75 l), A. santolina (at 75 l) and all levels of M. microphylla decreased the gas production significantly in comparison with the control. The highest levels of A. santolina and A. judaica, and all doses from M. microphylla EO inhibited the methane production along with a significant reduction in true degradation of dry matter and organic matter, protozoa count and NH3-N concentration. It is concluded that the evaluated EO have the potential to affect ruminal fermentation efficiency and the EO from M. microphylla could be a promising methane mitigating agent.

Optimisation of environmental gas cleaning routes for solid wastes cogeneration systems. Part II - Analysis of waste incineration combined gas/steam cycle

In the first paper of this paper (Part I), conditions were presented for the gas cleaning technological route for environomic optimisation of a cogeneration system based in a thermal cycle with municipal solid waste incineration. In this second part, an environomic analysis is presented of a cogeneration system comprising a combined cycle composed of a gas cycle burning natural gas with a heat recovery steam generator with no supplementary burning and a steam cycle burning municipal solid wastes (MSW) to which will be added a pure back pressure steam turbine (another one) of pure condensation. This analysis aims to select, concerning some scenarios, the best atmospheric pollutant emission control routes (rc) according to the investment cost minimisation, operation and social damage criteria. In this study, a comparison is also performed with the results obtained in the Case Study presented in Part I. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of packing materials in the removal of hydrogen sulphide in gas-phase biofilters: Polyurethane foam, sugarcane bagasse, and coconut fibre

The main objective of this work was to investigate three packing materials (polyurethane foam, sugar-cane bagasse, and coconut fibre) for biofiltration of a gaseous mixture containing hydrogen sulphide (H(2)S). Mixed cultures were obtained from two sources, aerated submerged biofilters and activated sludge, and were utilised as inoculums. Biofilters reached 100% removal efficiency after two clays of operation. The empty bed residence time was 495 for each of the biofilters. The reactors were operated simultaneously, and the inlet concentrations of H(2)S varied between 184 and 644 ppmv during the long-term continuous operation of the biofilters (100 clays). Average removal efficiencies remained above 99.3%, taking into consideration the entire period of operation. Average elimination capacities reached by the biofilters packed with polyurethane foam, coconut fibre, and sugarcane bagasse were in the range of 17.8-66.6; 18.9-68.8, and 18.7-72.9g m(-3) h(-1), respectively. Finally, we concluded that the packing materials tested in this work are appropriate for the long-term biofiltration of hydrogen sulphide. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gas flow analysis in a Kraft recovery boiler

Demands for optimal boiler performance and increased concerns in lowering emission have always been the driving force in the reevaluation and evolution of the Kraft boiler: specifically the air distribution strategies that are directly related to achieving increased residence time of flue gas combustion inside the furnace which in turn lowers atmosphere emission levels and enhances boiler operation. This paper presents the results of a study that analyzes the interaction of the different multilevel air injections have on flue gas flow patterns including various quaternary air supply arrangements. Additionally, this study assesses the performance of the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model against data available in literature. Simulations were performed considering isothermal and incompressible flows, and did not take into account thermal phenomena or chemical reactions. The numerical solutions generated proved to be coherently related to the data available in literature, and provided proof of the efficiency of tertiary level air injection, as well as revealed that quaternary air injection ports arranged in a symmetrical configuration is most suitable for optimal equipment operation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost Effectiveness of Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With Hodgkin`s Lymphoma in Unconfirmed Complete Remission or Partial Remission After First-Line Therapy

Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

Emission of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from gasohol and ethanol vehicles

The exhaust emission of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) considered toxic to human health were investigated on two spark ignition light duty vehicles, one being gasohol (Gasohol, in Brazil, is the generic denomination for mixtures of pure gasoline plus 20-25% of anhydrous ethyl alcohol fuel (AEAF).)-fuelled and the other a flexible-fuel vehicle fuelled with hydrated ethanol. The influence of fuel type and quality, aged lubricant oil type and use of fuel additives on the formation of these compounds was tested using standardized tests identical to US FTP-75 cycle. PAH sampling and chemical analysis followed the basic recommendations of method TO-13 (United States. Environmental Protection Agency, 1999. Compendium Method TO-13A - Determination of polycyclic Aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in Ambient Air Using Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (CG/MS). Center for environmental research information, Cincinnati, p. 78), with the necessary modification for this particular application. Results showed that the total PAH emission factor varied from 41.9 mu g km(-1) to 612 mu g km(-1) in the gasohol vehicle, and from 11.7 mu g km(-1) to 27.4 mu g km(-1) in the ethanol-fuelled vehicle, a significant difference in favor of the ethanol vehicle. Generally, emission of light molecular weight PAHs was predominant, while high molecular weights PAHs were not detected. In terms of benzo(a)pyrene toxicity equivalence, emission factors varied from 0.00984 mu g TEQ km(-1) to 4.61 mu g TEQ km(-1) for the gasohol vehicle and from 0.0117 mu g TEQ km(-1) to 0.0218 mu g TEQ km(-1) in the ethanol vehicle. For the gasohol vehicle, results showed that the use of fuel additive causes a significant increase in the emission of naphthalene and phenanthrene at a confidence level of 90% or higher; the use of rubber solvent on gasohol showed a reduction in the emission of naphthalene and phenanthrene at the same confidence level; the use of synthetic oil instead of mineral oil also contributed significantly to a decrease in the emission of naphthalene and fluorene. In relation to the ethanol vehicle, the same factors were tested and showed no statistically significant influence on PAH emission. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the warm H(2) infrared emission of the Helix nebula cometary knots

Molecular hydrogen emission is commonly observed in planetary nebulae. Images taken in infrared H(2) emission lines show that at least part of the molecular emission is produced inside the ionized region. In the best studied case, the Helix nebula, the H(2) emission is produced inside cometary knots (CKs), comet-shaped structures believed to be clumps of dense neutral gas embedded within the ionized gas. Most of the H(2) emission of the CKs seems to be produced in a thin layer between the ionized diffuse gas and the neutral material of the knot, in a mini-photodissociation region (mini-PDR). However, PDR models published so far cannot fully explain all the characteristics of the H(2) emission of the CKs. In this work, we use the photoionization code AANGABA to study the H(2) emission of the CKs, particularly that produced in the interface H(+)/H(0) of the knot, where a significant fraction of the H(2) 1-0 S(1) emission seems to be produced. Our results show that the production of molecular hydrogen in such a region may explain several characteristics of the observed emission, particularly the high excitation temperature of the H(2) infrared lines. We find that the temperature derived from H(2) observations, even of a single knot, will depend very strongly on the observed transitions, with much higher temperatures derived from excited levels. We also proposed that the separation between the H alpha and [N II] peak emission observed in the images of CKs may be an effect of the distance of the knot from the star, since for knots farther from the central star the [N II] line is produced closer to the border of the CK than H alpha.

Mapping low- and high-density clouds in astrophysical nebulae by imaging forbidden line emission

Emission line ratios have been essential for determining physical parameters such as gas temperature and density in astrophysical gaseous nebulae. With the advent of panoramic spectroscopic devices, images of regions with emission lines related to these physical parameters can, in principle, also be produced. We show that, with observations from modern instruments, it is possible to transform images taken from density-sensitive forbidden lines into images of emission from high- and low-density clouds by applying a transformation matrix. In order to achieve this, images of the pairs of density-sensitive lines as well as the adjacent continuum have to be observed and combined. We have computed the critical densities for a series of pairs of lines in the infrared, optical, ultraviolet and X-rays bands, and calculated the pair line intensity ratios in the high- and low-density limit using a four- and five-level atom approximation. In order to illustrate the method, we applied it to Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) Integral Field Unit (GMOS-IFU) data of two galactic nuclei. We conclude that this method provides new information of astrophysical interest, especially for mapping low- and high-density clouds; for this reason, we call it `the ld/hd imaging method`.