Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Processing optimization of probiotic yogurt containing glucose oxidase using response surface methodology

Exposure to oxygen may induce a lack of functionality of probiotic dairy foods because the anaerobic metabolism of probiotic bacteria compromises during storage the maintenance of their viability to provide benefits to consumer health. Glucose oxidase can constitute a potential alternative to increase the survival of probiotic bacteria in yogurt because it consumes the oxygen permeating to the inside of the pot during storage, thus making it possible to avoid the use of chemical additives. This research aimed to optimize the processing of probiotic yogurt supplemented with glucose oxidase using response surface methodology and to determine the levels of glucose and glucose oxidase that minimize the concentration of dissolved oxygen and maximize the Bifidobacterium longum count by the desirability function. Response surface methodology mathematical models adequately described the process, with adjusted determination coefficients of 83% for the oxygen and 94% for the B. longum. Linear and quadratic effects of the glucose oxidase were reported for the oxygen model, whereas for the B. longum count model an influence of the glucose oxidase at the linear level was observed followed by the quadratic influence of glucose and quadratic effect of glucose oxidase. The desirability function indicated that 62.32 ppm of glucose oxidase and 4.35 ppm of glucose was the best combination of these components for optimization of probiotic yogurt processing. An additional validation experiment was performed and results showed acceptable error between the predicted and experimental results.

Hierarchical risk scale of agribusiness activities

This study aims to elaborate a hierarchical risk scale (HRS) of agricultural and cattle breeding activities and to classify the main agricultural crops and cattle breeding activities according to their risk levels. The research is characterized as exploratory and quantitative and was based on previous risk assessment (MARKOWITZ, 1952) and capital cost calculation (SHARPE, 1964) work for other business segments. The calculations on agricultural and cattle breeding data were processed for the period from 2000 to 2006. The used methods considers simplifications and adaptations needed to achieve the proposed objective. The final result, pioneering and embryonic, provides support to improve the management of these activities that are so essential to produce food for society.

Shedding of Neospora caninum oocysts by dogs fed different tissues from naturally infected cattle

Neospora caninum is one of the most important causes of abortion in dairy cattle worldwide. The distribution of N. caninum in tissues of adult cattle is unknown and the parasite has not been demonstrated histologically in tissues of cows. In the present study the distribution of N. caninum in different tissues of adult cattle was evaluated by bioassays in dogs. Seventeen dogs (2-3 month-old) were fed different tissues of 4 naturally exposed adult cattle (indirect fluorescent antibody test N. caninum titer >= 400): 5 were fed with masseter: 5 with heart, 3 with liver, 4 with brain, and 3 pups were used as non-infected control. Two dogs fed masseter, 2 fed heart, 1 fed liver, and 3 fed brain shed oocysts, and all dogs presented no seroconvertion to N. caninum during the observation period of 4 weeks. The oocysts were confirmed as N. caninum based on the detection of N. caninum-specific DNA by PCR and sequencing. The results indicate that dogs can be infected by N. caninum with different tissues of infected cattle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Delivery of cloned offspring: experience in Zebu cattle (Bos indicus)

The production of a healthy cloned calf is dependent on a multitude of successful steps, including reprogramming mediated by the oocyte, the development of a functional placenta, adequate maternal-fetal interaction, the establishment of a physiological metabolic setting and the formation of a complete set of well-differentiated cells that will eventually result in well-characterised and fully competent tissues and organs. Although the efficiency of nuclear transfer has improved significantly since the first report of a somatic cell nuclear transfer-derived animal, there are many descriptions of anomalies concerning cloned calves leading to high perinatal morbidity and mortality. The present article discusses some our experience regarding perinatal and neonatal procedures for cloned Zebu cattle (B. indicus) that has led to improved survival rates in Nellore cloned calves following the application of such `labour-intensive technology`.

Assessment of DGAT1 and LEP gene polymorphisms in three Nelore (Bos indicus) lines selected for growth and their relationship with growth and carcass traits

The aim of this study was to analyze LEP and DGAT1 gene polymorphisms in 3 Nelore lines selected for growth and to evaluate their effects on growth and carcass traits. Traits analyzed were birth, weaning, and yearling weight, rump height, LM area, backfat thickness, and rump fat thickness obtained by ultrasound. Two SNP in the LEP gene [LEP 1620(A/G) and LEP 305(T/C)] and the K232A mutation in the DGAT1 gene were analyzed. The sample consisted of 357 Nelore heifers from 2 lines selected for yearling weight and a control line, established in 1980, at the Estacao Experimental de Zootecnia de Sertaozinho (Sertaozinho, Brazil). Three genotypes were obtained for each marker. Differences in allele frequencies among the 3 lines were only observed for the DGAT1 K232A polymorphism, with the frequency of the A allele being greater in the control line than in the selected lines. The DGAT1 K232A mutation was associated only with rump height, whereas LEP 1620(A/G) was associated with weaning weight and LEP 305(T/C) with birth weight and backfat thickness. However, more studies, with larger data sets, are necessary before these makers can be used for marker-assisted selection.

High genetic diversity in field isolates of Trypanosoma theileri assessed by analysis of cathepsin L-like sequences disclosed multiple and new genotypes infecting cattle in Thailand

In this study, we describe the first survey in Thailand of Trypanosoma theileri, a widespread and prevalent parasite of cattle that is transmitted by tabanid flies. Investigation of 210 bovine blood samples of Thai cattle from six farms by hematocrit centrifuge technique (HCT) revealed 14 samples with trypanosomes morphologically compatible to T. theileri. Additional animals were positive for T. theileri by PCR based on the Cathepsin L-like sequence (TthCATL-PCR) despite negative by HCT, indicating cryptic infections. Results revealed a prevalence of 26 +/- 15% (95% CI) of T. theileri infection. Additionally, 12 samples positive for T. theileri were detected in cattle from other 11 farms. From a total of 30 blood samples positive by HCT and/or PCR from 17 farms, seven were characterized to evaluate the genetic polymorphism of T. theileri through sequence analysis of PCR-amplified CATL DNA sequences. All CATL sequences of T. theileri from Thai cattle clustered with sequences of the previously described phylogenetic lineages TthI and TthII, supporting only two major lineages of T. theileri in cattle around the world. However, 11 of the 29 CATL sequences analyzed showed to be different, disclosing an unexpectedly large polymorphic genetic repertoire, with multiple genotypes of T. theileri not previously described in other countries circulating in Thai cattle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinação de aflatoxina B1 em rações e aflatoxina M1 no leite de propriedades do Estado de São Paulo

A ocorrência de aflatoxina B1 (AFB1) em rações e aflatoxina M1 (AFM1) no leite cru foi avaliada em propriedades leiteiras situadas na região nordeste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, de outubro de 2005 a fevereiro de 2006. A análise de aflatoxinas foi efetuada utilizando-se colunas de imunoafinidade para purificação dos extratos, sendo a quantificação realizada através de cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência. A AFB1 foi detectada em 40% das rações em níveis de 1,0 a 19,5 μg.kg-1. A concentração de AFM1 em 36,7% de amostras de leite positivas variou de 0,010 a 0,645 μg.L-1. Somente uma amostra de leite estava acima do limite de tolerância adotado no Brasil (0,5 μg.L-1) para AFM1. Concluiu-se que as concentrações de aflatoxinas na ração e no leite foram relativamente baixas, embora a alta frequência das aflatoxinas nas amostras analisadas indique a necessidade de contínuo monitoramento a fim de prevenir a contaminação de ingredientes e rações destinadas ao gado leiteiro.

Resposta em parâmetros sanguíneos e urinários de vacas leiteiras ao aumento no balanço cátion-aniônico da dieta

Estudou-se efeito de quatro níveis de dietas catiônicas sobre os parâmetros ácido-base do sangue e o pH urinário de vacas em lactação. Para a manipulação dos níveis do balanço cátion-amônico da dieta (BCAD), foram adicionadas diferentes concentrações de bicarbonato de sódio às dietas, obtendo-se os seguintes tratamentos: +150, +250, +400 e +500mEq/kg de matéria seca. O experimento foi realizado durante o verão, por um período total de 72 dias, utilizando-se oito vacas da raça Holandesa após o pico de lactação, distribuídas em quadrado latino (4x4), replicado, em que cada período teve duração de 18 dias. O pH urinário e o bicarbonato, o pH, o CO2 total e a pCO2 do sangue aumentaram linearmente (P<0,01) com o aumento do BCAD. As concentrações de sódio e potássio do sangue não foram modificadas (P>0,05) pelo BCAD. A concentração de cloro no sangue diminuiu linearmente (P<0,01) com o aumento do BCAD. O aumento do BCAD afetou o equilíbrio ácido-base das vacas, promovendo efeito alcalinogênico, o que poderia levar a diferenças significativas no desempenho do animal.

Características do sistema produtivo da pecuária no município de Santarém, Pará

Com o objetivo de identificar as principais falhas no sistema de produção que limitam a pecuária em Santarém, Pará, foram entrevistados, ao acaso, 21 pecuaristas (90,5% de corte - cria, recria e engorda; 9,5% de leite), proprietários de 10% da população de bovinos do município. 71,4% das propriedades tinham currais para manejo do gado, entretanto apenas 38,1% possuíam balança e 23,8% tronco de contenção. A Brachiaria brizantha estava presente em todas as fazendas, sendo usada exclusivamente em 42,9% das propriedades. A disseminação de plantas invasoras (61,9%) foi considerada a principal dificuldade no manejo das pastagens. Constatou-se que 76,2% dos pecuaristas utilizam misturas minerais com macro e micro-elementos, geralmente de formulações comerciais, enquanto que 19% utilizam apenas sal comum, enriquecido com micro-elementos. A concentração de fósforo (P) na mistura mineral estava abaixo do recomendado para bovinos de corte em 76,9% das propriedades e apenas 19% das propriedades possuía cochos para suplementação mineral adequada.

Situação epidemiológica da brucelose bovina no Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul

Realizou-se um estudo para caracterizar a situação epidemiológica da brucelose bovina no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. Foram definidos três estratos (regiões): Pantanal-corte, Planalto-corte e Planalto-leite, este último subdividido em Bolsão, Campo Grande e Dourados. Em cada estrato foram amostradas aleatoriamente propriedades e, dentro dessas, foi escolhido, de forma aleatória, um número pré-estabelecido de animais, dos quais foi obtida uma amostra de sangue. No total, foram amostrados 14.849 animais, provenientes de 1.004 propriedades. Em cada propriedade amostrada foi aplicado um questionário epidemiológico para verificar suas características e também para detectar transtornos reprodutivos que poderiam estar associados à infecção brucélica. O teste utilizado foi o do antígeno acidificado tamponado. O rebanho foi considerado positivo se pelo menos um animal foi reagente à prova sorológica. Para o Estado, a prevalência de focos foi de 41,5% [36,5-44,7%]. As prevalências de focos e de animais infectados por estrato foram, respectivamente, de: 59,0% [52,8-64,9%] e 12,6% [9,1-17,2%] para o estrato Pantanal-corte, e 40,6% [35,8-45,5%] e 4,5% [2,1-9,0%] para Planalto-corte. No estrato Planalto-leite, a prevalência de focos foi de 33,1% [28,4-38,1%]. Os fatores de risco (odds ratios, OR) associados à condição de foco foram: ter ≥500 vacas (OR = 2,46 [1,81-3,34]), ocorrência de bezerros fracos (OR = 1,20 [0,87-1,65]) e uso da inseminação artificial (OR = 0,71 [0,50-1,01]).

Tendência da mortalidade relacionada à doença de Chagas, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, 1985 a 2006: estudo usando causas múltiplas de morte

OBJETIVO: Estudar a tendência da mortalidade relacionada à doença de Chagas informada em qualquer linha ou parte do atestado médico da declaração de óbito.MÉTODOS: Os dados provieram dos bancos de causas múltiplas de morte da Fundação Sistema Estadual de Análise de Dados de São Paulo (SEADE) entre 1985 e 2006. As causas de morte foram caracterizadas como básicas, associadas (não-básicas) e total de suas menções.RESULTADOS: No período de 22 anos, ocorreram 40 002 óbitos relacionados à doença de Chagas, dos quais 34 917 (87,29%) como causa básica e 5 085 (12,71%) como causa associada. Foi observado um declínio de 56,07% do coeficiente de mortalidade pela causa básica e estabilidade pela causa associada. O número de óbitos foi 44,5% maior entre os homens em relação às mulheres. O fato de 83,5% dos óbitos terem ocorrido a partir dos 45 anos de idade revela um efeito de coorte. As principais causas associadas da doença de Chagas como causa básica foram as complicações diretas do comprometimento cardíaco, como transtornos da condução, arritmias e insuficiência cardíaca. Para a doença de Chagas como causa associada, foram identificadas como causas básicas as doenças isquêmicas do coração, as doenças cerebrovasculares e as neoplasias.CONCLUSÕES: Para o total de suas menções, verificou-se uma queda do coeficiente de mortalidade de 51,34%, ao passo que a queda no número de óbitos foi de apenas 5,91%, tendo sido menor entre as mulheres, com um deslocamento das mortes para as idades mais avançadas. A metodologia das causas múltiplas de morte contribuiu para ampliar o conhecimento da história natural da doença de Chagas