82 resultados para Cointegration analysis with structural breaks
Resumo:
Aerosol samples were collected at a pasture site in the Amazon Basin as part of the project LBA-SMOCC-2002 (Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Smoke Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall and Climate: Aerosols from Biomass Burning Perturb Global and Regional Climate). Sampling was conducted during the late dry season, when the aerosol composition was dominated by biomass burning emissions, especially in the submicron fraction. A 13-stage Dekati low-pressure impactor (DLPI) was used to collect particles with nominal aerodynamic diameters (D(p)) ranging from 0.03 to 0.10 mu m. Gravimetric analyses of the DLPI substrates and filters were performed to obtain aerosol mass concentrations. The concentrations of total, apparent elemental, and organic carbon (TC, EC(a), and OC) were determined using thermal and thermal-optical analysis (TOA) methods. A light transmission method (LTM) was used to determine the concentration of equivalent black carbon (BC(e)) or the absorbing fraction at 880 nm for the size-resolved samples. During the dry period, due to the pervasive presence of fires in the region upwind of the sampling site, concentrations of fine aerosols (D(p) < 2.5 mu m: average 59.8 mu g m(-3)) were higher than coarse aerosols (D(p) > 2.5 mu m: 4.1 mu g m(-3)). Carbonaceous matter, estimated as the sum of the particulate organic matter (i.e., OC x 1.8) plus BC(e), comprised more than 90% to the total aerosol mass. Concentrations of EC(a) (estimated by thermal analysis with a correction for charring) and BC(e) (estimated by LTM) averaged 5.2 +/- 1.3 and 3.1 +/- 0.8 mu g m(-3), respectively. The determination of EC was improved by extracting water-soluble organic material from the samples, which reduced the average light absorption Angstrom exponent of particles in the size range of 0.1 to 1.0 mu m from >2.0 to approximately 1.2. The size-resolved BC(e) measured by the LTM showed a clear maximum between 0.4 and 0.6 mu m in diameter. The concentrations of OC and BC(e) varied diurnally during the dry period, and this variation is related to diurnal changes in boundary layer thickness and in fire frequency.
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This paper deals with analysis of multiple random crack propagation in two-dimensional domains using the boundary element method (BEM). BEM is known to be a robust and accurate numerical technique for analysing this type of problem. The formulation adopted in this work is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. We propose an iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and the crack length increment at each time step. The proposed scheme able us to simulate localisation and coalescence phenomena, which is the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics analysis, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of simple and multi-fractured domains, loaded up to the rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A new two-dimensionally mapped infinite boundary element (IBE) is presented. The formulation is based on a triangular boundary element (BE) with linear shape functions instead of the quadrilateral IBEs usually found in the literature. The infinite solids analyzed are assumed to be three-dimensional, linear-elastic and isotropic, and Kelvin fundamental solutions are employed. One advantage of the proposed formulation over quadratic or higher order elements is that no additional degrees of freedom are added to the original BE mesh by the presence of the IBEs. Thus, the IBEs allow the mesh to be reduced without compromising the accuracy of the result. Two examples are presented, in which the numerical results show good agreement with authors using quadrilateral IBEs and analytical solutions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this work, a new boundary element formulation for the analysis of plate-beam interaction is presented. This formulation uses a three nodal value boundary elements and each beam element is replaced by its actions on the plate, i.e., a distributed load and end of element forces. From the solution of the differential equation of a beam with linearly distributed load the plate-beam interaction tractions can be written as a function of the nodal values of the beam. With this transformation a final system of equation in the nodal values of displacements of plate boundary and beam nodes is obtained and from it, all unknowns of the plate-beam system are obtained. Many examples are analyzed and the results show an excellent agreement with those from the analytical solution and other numerical methods. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper presents the experimental results of 32 axially loaded concrete-filled steel tubular columns (CFT). The load was introduced only on the concrete core by means of two high strength steel cylinders placed at the column ends to evaluate the passive confinement provided by the steel tube. The columns were filled with structural concretes with compressive strengths of 30, 60, 80 and 100 MPa. The outer diameter (D) of the column was 114.3 mm, and the length/diameter (L/D) ratios considered were 3, 5, 7 and 10. The wall thicknesses of the tubes (t) were 3.35 mm and 6.0 mm, resulting in diameter/thickness (D/t) ratios of 34 and 19, respectively. The force vs. axial strain curves obtained from the tests showed, in general, a good post-peak behavior of the CFT columns, even for those columns filled with high strength concrete. Three analytical models of confinement for short concrete-filled columns found in the literature were used to predict the axial capacity of the columns tested. To apply these models to slender columns, a correction factor was introduced to penalize the calculated results, giving good agreement with the experimental values. Additional results of 63 CFT columns tested by other researchers were also compared to the predictions of the modified analytical models and presented satisfactory results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This work deals with analysis of cracked structures using BEM. Two formulations to analyse the crack growth process in quasi-brittle materials are discussed. They are based on the dual formulation of BEM where two different integral equations are employed along the opposite sides of the crack surface. The first presented formulation uses the concept of constant operator, in which the corrections of the nonlinear process are made only by applying appropriate tractions along the crack surfaces. The second presented BEM formulation to analyse crack growth problems is an implicit technique based on the use of a consistent tangent operator. This formulation is accurate, stable and always requires much less iterations to reach the equilibrium within a given load increment in comparison with the classical approach. Comparison examples of classical problem of crack growth are shown to illustrate the performance of the two formulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper, a formulation for representation of stiffeners in plane stress by the boundary elements method (BEM) in linear analysis is presented. The strategy is to adopt approximations for the displacements in the central line of the stiffener. With this simplification the Spurious oscillations in the stress along stiffeners with small thickness is prevented. Worked examples are analyzed to show the efficiency of these techniques, especially in the insertion of very narrow sub-regions, in which quasi-singular integrals are calculated, with stiffeners that are much stiffer than the main domain. The results obtained with this formulation are very close to those obtained with other formulations. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Leakage reduction in water supply systems and distribution networks has been an increasingly important issue in the water industry since leaks and ruptures result in major physical and economic losses. Hydraulic transient solvers can be used in the system operational diagnosis, namely for leak detection purposes, due to their capability to describe the dynamic behaviour of the systems and to provide substantial amounts of data. In this research work, the association of hydraulic transient analysis with an optimisation model, through inverse transient analysis (ITA), has been used for leak detection and its location in an experimental facility containing PVC pipes. Observed transient pressure data have been used for testing ITA. A key factor for the success of the leak detection technique used is the accurate calibration of the transient solver, namely adequate boundary conditions and the description of energy dissipation effects since PVC pipes are characterised by a viscoelastic mechanical response. Results have shown that leaks were located with an accuracy between 4-15% of the total length of the pipeline, depending on the discretisation of the system model.
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The applicability of a meshfree approximation method, namely the EFG method, on fully geometrically exact analysis of plates is investigated. Based on a unified nonlinear theory of plates, which allows for arbitrarily large rotations and displacements, a Galerkin approximation via MLS functions is settled. A hybrid method of analysis is proposed, where the solution is obtained by the independent approximation of the generalized internal displacement fields and the generalized boundary tractions. A consistent linearization procedure is performed, resulting in a semi-definite generalized tangent stiffness matrix which, for hyperelastic materials and conservative loadings, is always symmetric (even for configurations far from the generalized equilibrium trajectory). Besides the total Lagrangian formulation, an updated version is also presented, which enables the treatment of rotations beyond the parameterization limit. An extension of the arc-length method that includes the generalized domain displacement fields, the generalized boundary tractions and the load parameter in the constraint equation of the hyper-ellipsis is proposed to solve the resulting nonlinear problem. Extending the hybrid-displacement formulation, a multi-region decomposition is proposed to handle complex geometries. A criterium for the classification of the equilibrium`s stability, based on the Bordered-Hessian matrix analysis, is suggested. Several numerical examples are presented, illustrating the effectiveness of the method. Differently from the standard finite element methods (FEM), the resulting solutions are (arbitrary) smooth generalized displacement and stress fields. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.
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Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.
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Managing financial institutions in an underdeveloped economic context has become a real challenge nowadays. In order to reach the organization`s planned goals, they have to deal with structural, behavioral and informational problems. From the systemic point of view, this situation gets even worse when the company does not present organizational boundaries and a cohesive identification for their stakeholders. Thus, European countries have some special financial lines in order to help the development of micro credit in Latin communities in an attempt to help the local economy. However, institutions like Caixa dos Andes in Peru present management problems when dealing with this complexity. Based on this, how can the systemic eye help in the diagnosis of soft problems of a Peruvian financial company? This study aims to diagnose soft problems of a Peruvian financial company based on soft variables like identity, communication and autonomy and also intends to identify possible ways to redesign its basic framework. The (VSM--Viable System Model) method from Beer (1967), applied in this diagnostic study, was used in a practical way as a management tool for organizations` analysis and planning. By describing the VSM`s five systems, the creation of a systemic vision or a total vision is possible, showing the organization`s complexity from the inside. Some company`s soft problems like double control, inefficient use of physical and human resources, low information flows, slowness, etc. The VSM presented an organizational diagnosis indicating effective solutions that do integrate its five systems.
Resumo:
Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most common birth defect and the leading cause of mortality in the first year of life. In fetuses with a heart defect, chromosomal abnormalities are very frequent. Besides aneuploidy, 22q11.2 deletion is one of the most recognizable chromosomal abnormalities causing CHD. The frequency of this abnormality varies in nonselected populations. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of the 22q11.2 deletion and other chromosomal alterations in a Brazilian sample of fetuses with structural cardiac anomalies detected by fetal echocardiography. In a prospective study, 68 fetuses with a heart defect were evaluated. Prenatal detection of cardiac abnormalities led to identification of aneuploidy or structural chromosomal anomaly in 35.3% of these cases. None of the fetuses with apparently normal karyotypes had a 22q11.2 deletion. The heart defects most frequently associated with chromosomal abnormalities were atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD), ventricular septal defect (VSD), and tetralogy of Fallot. Autosomal trisomies 18 and 21 were the most common chromosomal abnormalities. The study results support the strong association of chromosome alterations and cardiac malformation, especially in AVSD and VSD, for which a chromosome investigation is indicated. In fetuses with an isolated conotruncal cardiopathy, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) to investigate a 22q11.2 deletion is not indicated.
Resumo:
Objective: To identify the CAMCOG sub-items that best contribute for the identification of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and incipient Alzheimer`s disease (AD) in clinical practice. Methods: Cross-sectional assessment of 272 older adults (98 MCI, 82 AD, and 92 controls) with a standardized neuropsychological battery and the CAMCOG schedule. Backward logistic regression analysis with diagnosis (MCI and controls) as dependent variable and the sub-items of the CAMCOG as independent variable was carried out to determine the CAMCOG sub-items that predicted the diagnosis of MCI. Results: Lower scores on Language, Memory, Praxis, and Calculation CAMCOG sub-items were significantly associated with the diagnosis of MCI. A composite score obtained by the sum of these scores significantly discriminated MCI patients from comparison groups. This reduced version of the CAMCOG showed similar diagnostic accuracy than the original schedule for the identification of patients with MCI as compared to controls (AUC = 0.80 +/- 0.03 for the reduced CAMCOG; AUC = 0.79 +/- 0.03 for the original CAMCOG). Conclusion: This reduced version of the CAMCOG had similar diagnostic properties as the original CAMCOG and was faster and easier to administer, rendering it more suitable for the screening of subtle cognitive deficits in general clinical practice. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.