Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state Recently the Sao Paulo state government mitigated its citrus canker eradication methodology adopted since 1999. In April 2009 at least 99.8% of commercial sweet orange orchards were free of citrus canker in Sao Paulo state. Consequently the mitigation of the eradication methodology reduced the high level of safety and the competitiveness of the citrus production sector in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Therefore we suggest the re-adoption of the same eradication methodology of citrus canker adopted in Sao Paulo from 1999 to 2009, or the adoption of a new methodology, effective for citrus canker suppression, because in new sample surveys citrus canker was detected in >0.36% of affected orchards. This incidence threshold was calculated by using the Duncan test (P <= 0.05) to compare the yearly sample surveys conducted in Sao Paulo state to estimate citrus canker incidence between 1999 and 2009. The calculated minimum significant level was 0.28% among sample surveys and the lowest citrus canker incidence in Sao Paulo state was 0.08%, occurring in 2001. Thus, as an alternative, we suggest the adoption of a new eradication methodology for citrus canker suppression when a new sample survey detected >0.36% of affected orchards in Sao Paulo state, Brazil.

GREEN MANAGEMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMALL BUSINESS IN BRAZIL: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRAINING AND EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

This paper presents the results of a study on the analysis of training needs regarding environmental (green) management and climate change topics in micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Brazil and its implications on education for sustainable development. It reports on an e-mail survey of Brazilian small enterprises, whose results indicate that they are indeed interested in environmental management and climate change topics in an education for sustainable development context. The study indicates that proposals for courses on environmental management and climate change should follow a systemic perspective and take sustainable development into account. By applying factor analysis, it was found that the topics of interest can be grouped into thematic modules, which can be useful in the design of training courses for the top management leaders of those companies.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate and acute/subacute paracoccidioidomycosis in a hyper-endemic area in Brazil

Methods Stepwise regression of annual data was applied to model incidence, calculated based on 91 cases, from lagged variables: antecedent precipitation, air temperature, soil water storage, absolute and relative air humidity, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Results Multiple regression analyses resulted in a model, which explains 49% of the incidence variance, taking into account the absolute air humidity in the year of exposure, soil water storage and SOI of the previous 2 years. Conclusions The correlations may reflect enhanced fungal growth after increase in soil water storage in the longer term and greater spore release with increase in absolute air humidity in the short term.

Genotype effects on body temperature in dairy cows under grazing conditions in a hot climate including evidence for heterosis

We compared diurnal patterns of vaginal temperature in lactating cows under grazing conditions to evaluate genotype effects on body temperature regulation. Genotypes evaluated were Holstein, Jersey, Jersey x Holstein and Swedish Red x Holstein. The comparison of Holstein and Jersey versus Jersey x Holstein provided a test of whether heterosis effects body temperature regulation. Cows were fitted with intravaginal temperature recording devices that measured vaginal temperature every 15 min for 7 days. Vaginal temperature was affected by time of day (P < 0.0001) and genotype x time (P < 0.0001) regardless of whether days in milk and milk yield were used as covariates. Additional analyses indicated that the Swedish Red x Holstein had a different pattern of vaginal temperatures than the other three genotypes (Swedish Red x Holstein vs others x time; P < 0.0001) and that Holstein and Jersey had a different pattern than Jersey x Holstein [(Holstein + Jersey vs Jersey x Holstein) x time, P < 0.0001]. However, Holstein had a similar pattern to Jersey [(Holstein vs Jersey) x time, P > 0.10]. These genotype x time interactions reflect two effects. First, Swedish Red x Holstein had higher vaginal temperatures than the other genotypes in the late morning and afternoon but not after the evening milking. Secondly, Jersey x Holstein had lower vaginal temperatures than other genotypes in the late morning and afternoon and again in the late night and early morning. Results point out that there are effects of specific genotypes and evidence for heterosis on regulation of body temperature of lactating cows maintained under grazing conditions and suggest that genetic improvement for thermotolerance through breed choice or genetic selection is possible.