Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing methods for sampling large- and medium-sized mammals: camera traps and track plots

Activities involving fauna monitoring are usually limited by the lack of resources; therefore, the choice of a proper and efficient methodology is fundamental to maximize the cost-benefit ratio. Both direct and indirect methods can be used to survey mammals, but the latter are preferred due to the difficulty to come in sight of and/or to capture the individuals, besides being cheaper. We compared the performance of two methods to survey medium and large-sized mammal: track plot recording and camera trapping, and their costs were assessed. At Jatai Ecological Station (S21 degrees 31`15 ``- W47 degrees 34`42 ``-Brazil) we installed ten camera traps along a dirt road directly in front of ten track plots, and monitored them for 10 days. We cleaned the plots, adjusted the cameras, and noted down the recorded species daily. Records taken by both methods showed they sample the local richness in different ways (Wilcoxon, T=231; p;;0.01). The track plot method performed better on registering individuals whereas camera trapping provided records which permitted more accurate species identification. The type of infra-red sensor camera used showed a strong bias towards individual body mass (R(2)=0.70; p=0.017), and the variable expenses of this method in a 10-day survey were estimated about 2.04 times higher compared to track plot method; however, in a long run camera trapping becomes cheaper than track plot recording. Concluding, track plot recording is good enough for quick surveys under a limited budget, and camera trapping is best for precise species identification and the investigation of species details, performing better for large animals. When used together, these methods can be complementary.

Programa preventivo da cárie dentária baseado no controle mecânico da placa bacteriana em crianças, por meio da profilaxia profissional periódica: Resultados após 25 anos de acompanhamento

OBJETIVOS: o objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a incidência de cárie dentária em um programa de prevenção aplicado durante 25 anos em clínica particular. METODOLOGIA: participaram desse programa 640 crianças de ambos os gêneros, na faixa etária de 3 a 15 anos de idade. O programa foi baseado no controle mecânico da placa bacteriana dentária por meio da profilaxia profissional com jato de bicarbonato de sódio com uma periodicidade mensal. A incidência de cárie foi verificada por meio de exames clínicos durante as sessões de atendimento e radiográficos anualmente. A média de idade das crianças ao ingressarem no programa foi de 7,8 anos. RESULTADOS: antes de ingressar no programa, as crianças apresentaram, em média, 5,3 faces cariadas, enquanto após o programa a média foi de 0,18. A incidência de cáries por ano antes do programa foi de 0,9 faces cariadas e durante o programa de 0,03. O tempo de permanência das crianças no programa foi, em média, de 52,6 meses, e a média de faltas foi de 0,5 falta por ano. Esses resultados demonstram o sucesso do programa, principalmente por ter uma filosofia que procura o equilíbrio da biodiversidade da cavidade bucal, sem o risco de produzir efeitos colaterais indesejáveis. CONCLUSÕES: conclui-se, assim, que esse parece ser o caminho mais curto para resolver o problema da cárie dentária, ou seja, o controle mecânico da placa bacteriana dentária através da profilaxia profissional mensal, pois é um método de prevenção possível de ser aplicado em qualquer criança, independentemente de suas condições psicomotoras e sociais, e que proporciona a melhor relação custo-benefício, além de estar de acordo com os conceitos mais atuais de cárie e de seus fatores etiológicos. Em função da faixa etária das crianças, o programa é de suma importância para clínicas de Odontopediatria e Ortodontia.

Produção de vitelos a partir de bezerros leiteiros mestiços e da raça Holandesa

Neste trabalho foi avaliado o desempenho produtivo de nove animais jovens Zebu × Holandês em comparação a nove animais da raça Holandesa para produção de vitelos. Todos os animais foram mantidos em condições idênticas de ambiente, manejo e alimentação, com acompanhamento individual da ingestão de matéria seca. As medidas de avaliação do desenvolvimento animal, conversão e eficiência alimentar possibilitaram comparações entre os tratamentos, a partir de delineamento inteiramente casualizado. Os bezerros Zebu × Holandês apresentaram maior ganho de perímetro torácico (23,3 cm) e ganho de peso diário (1,45 kg), além de conversão alimentar (2,77 kg de MS/kg de peso corporal), se comparados aos bezerros da raça Holandesa, com, respectivamente, 18,5 cm de perímetro torácico, 1,16 kg de ganho de peso diário e conversão alimentar de 3,48 kg de MS/kg de peso corporal. Não houve diferença na ingestão de matéria seca entre os animais avaliados. Quanto ao estudo econômico da produção de carne de vitelo, os animais mestiços apresentaram o menor custo de produção por quilo de carne produzida e, conseqüentemente, o melhor potencial de produção de vitelos a partir de animais Zebu × Holandês, como atividade complementar à produção de leite.

Sex ratio and morphological characteristics of rufous gnateaters, Conopophaga lineata (Aves, Passeriformes) in Atlantic forest fragments

Unequal sex ratios lead to the loss of genetic variability, decreasing the viability of populations in the long term. Anthropogenic activities often disturb the natural habitats and can cause alterations in sex ratio and morphological characteristics of several species. Forest fragmentation is a major conservation concern, so that understanding its effects in natural populations is essential. In this study, we evaluated the sex ratio and the morphological characteristics of Rufous Gnateaters (Conopophaga lineata (Wied, 1831)) in small and large forest fragments in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Birds (n = 89) were sexed by plumage characteristics and molecular markers. The molecular analysis showed that plumage is not a totally reliable method for sexing Rufous Gnateaters. We observed that sex ratio did not differ between large and small forest fragments, but birds in small fragments had larger wings and tarsus. Wing and tarsus changes may affect the movement ability of individuals within and among forest fragments. In conclusion, Rufous Gnateaters have been able to survive in both small and large Atlantic rain forest fragments without altering their sex ratio, but morphological changes can be prejudicial to their long term survival.

Mechanical strength and thermal conductivity of low-porosity gypsum plates

The thermal conductivity and mechanical strength of gypsum and gypsum-cellulose plates made from commercial plaster by a new process have been measured. The gypsum parts made by the new process, 'novogesso', have high mechanical strength and low porosity. The gypsum strength derives from both the high aspect ratio of the gypsum crystals and the strong adhesion among them by nano-flat layers of confined water, which behaves as supercooled water. Another contribution to the strength comes from the nano-flatness of the lateral surfaces of the gypsum single crystals. The bending and compression strengths, σB and σc, of gypsum plates prepared by this new technique can be as high as 30 and 100 MPa, respectively. The way gypsum plates have been assembled as well as their low thermal conductivity allowed for the construction of a low-cost experimental house with thermal and acoustic comfort.

Discrepancies among ecological, household, and individual data on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil

Information on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil in the three levels of dietary data was analyzed and compared. Data about national supply came from Food Balance Sheets compiled by the FAO; household availability information was obtained from the Brazilian National Household Budget Survey (HBS); and actual intake information came from a large individual dietary intake survey that was representative of the adult population of São Paulo city. All sources of information were collected between 2002 and 2003. A subset of the HBS, representative of São Paulo city, was used in our analysis in order to improve the quality of the comparison with actual intake data. The ratio of national supply to household availability of fruits and vegetables was 2.6 while the ratio of national supply to actual intake was 4.0. The discrepancy ratio in the comparison between household availability and actual intake was smaller, 1.6. While the use of supply and availability data has advantages, as lower cost, must be taken into account that these sources tend to overestimate actual intake of fruits and vegetables.

Ratio of weight to height gain: a useful tool for identifying children at risk of becoming overweight or obese at preschool age

PURPOSE: To analyze the usefulness of the weight gain/height gain ratio from birth to two and three years of age as a predictive risk indicator of excess weight at preschool age. METHODS: The weight and height/length of 409 preschool children at daycare centers were measured according to internationally recommended rules. The weight values and body mass indices of the children were transformed into a z-score per the standard method described by the World Health Organization. The Pearson correlation coefficients (rP) and the linear regressions between the anthropometric parameters and the body mass index z-scores of preschool children were statistically analyzed (alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 3.2 years (± 0.3 years). The prevalence of excess weight was 28.8%, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 8.8%. The correlation coefficients between the body mass index z-scores of the preschool children and the birth weights or body mass indices at birth were low (0.09 and 0.10, respectively). There was a high correlation coefficient (rP = 0.79) between the mean monthly gain of weight and the body mass index z-score of preschool children. A higher coefficient (rP = 0.93) was observed between the ratio of the mean weight gain per height gain (g/cm) and the preschool children body mass index z-score. The coefficients and their differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Regardless of weight or length at birth, the mean ratio between the weight gain per g/cm of height growth from birth presented a strong correlation with the body mass index of preschool children. These results suggest that this ratio may be a good indicator of the risk of excess weight and obesity in preschool-aged children.

Economic impact of a rotavirus vaccine in Brazil

The study was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazilian children from the healthcare system perspective. A hypothetical annual birth-cohort was followed for a five-year period. Published and national administrative data were incorporated into a model to quantify the consequences of vaccination versus no vaccination. Main outcome measures included the reduction in disease burden, lives saved, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. A rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazil would prevent an estimated 1,804 deaths associated with gastroenteritis due to rotavirus, 91,127 hospitalizations, and 550,198 outpatient visits. Vaccination is likely to reduce 76% of the overall healthcare burden of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in Brazil. At a vaccine price of US$ 7-8 per dose, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be US$ 643 per DALY averted. Rotavirus vaccination can reduce the burden of gastroenteritis due to rotavirus at a reasonable cost-effectiveness ratio.

Change and Aging Senescence as an Adaptation

Understanding why we age is a long-lived open problem in evolutionary biology. Aging is prejudicial to the individual, and evolutionary forces should prevent it, but many species show signs of senescence as individuals age. Here, I will propose a model for aging based on assumptions that are compatible with evolutionary theory: i) competition is between individuals; ii) there is some degree of locality, so quite often competition will be between parents and their progeny; iii) optimal conditions are not stationary, and mutation helps each species to keep competitive. When conditions change, a senescent species can drive immortal competitors to extinction. This counter-intuitive result arises from the pruning caused by the death of elder individuals. When there is change and mutation, each generation is slightly better adapted to the new conditions, but some older individuals survive by chance. Senescence can eliminate those from the genetic pool. Even though individual selection forces can sometimes win over group selection ones, it is not exactly the individual that is selected but its lineage. While senescence damages the individuals and has an evolutionary cost, it has a benefit of its own. It allows each lineage to adapt faster to changing conditions. We age because the world changes.

Aging and fluctuation-dissipation ratio in a nonequilibrium q-state lattice model

A generalized version of the nonequilibrium linear Glauber model with q states in d dimensions is introduced and analyzed. The model is fully symmetric, its dynamics being invariant under all permutations of the q states. Exact expressions for the two-time autocorrelation and response functions on a d-dimensional lattice are obtained. In the stationary regime, the fluctuation-dissipation theorem holds, while in the transient the aging is observed with the fluctuation-dissipation ratio leading to the value predicted for the linear Glauber model.

Low and moderate, rather than high intensity strength exercise induces benefit regarding plasma lipid profile

Background: The effects of chronic aerobic exercise upon lipid profile has been previously demonstrated, but few studies showed this effect under resistance exercise conditions. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of different resistance exercise loads on blood lipids. Methods: Thirty healthy, untrained male volunteers were allocated randomly into four groups based at different percentages of one repetition maximum (1 RM); 50%-1 RM, 75%-1 RM, 90%-1 RM, and 110%-1 RM. The total volume (sets x reps x load) of the exercise was equalized. The lipid profile (Triglycerides [TG], HDL-cholesterol [HDL-c], LDL-cholesterol, and Total cholesterol) was determined at rest and after 1, 24, 48 and 72 h of resistance exercise. Results: The 75%-1 RM group demonstrated greater TG reduction when compared to other groups (p < 0.05). Additionally, the 110%-1 RM group presented an increased TG concentration when compared to 50% and 75% groups (p = 0.01, p = 0.01, respectively). HDL-c concentration was significantly greater after resistance exercise in 50%-1 RM and 75%-1 RM when compared to 110%-1 RM group (p = 0.004 and p = 0.03, respectively). Accordingly, the 50%-1 RM group had greater HDL-c concentration than 110%-1 RM group after 48 h (p = 0.05) and 72 h (p = 0.004), respectively. Finally, The 50% group has showed lesser LDL-c concentration than 110% group after 24 h (p = 0.007). No significant difference was found in Total Cholesterol concentrations. Conclusion: These results indicate that the acute resistance exercise may induce changes in lipid profile in a specific-intensity manner. Overall, low and moderate exercise intensities appear to be promoting more benefits on lipid profile than high intensity. Long term studies should confirm these findings.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Load Ratio Estimation Through Striation Height and Spacing Analysis of an Aerospace Al Alloy 7475-T7351

It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.

Evaluation technique for determining wheel performance in the grinding of aerospace materials

Nickel-based super alloys are used in a variety of applications in which high-temperature strength and resistance to creep, corrosion, and oxidation are required, such as in aircraft gas turbines, combustion chambers, and automotive engine valves. The properties that make these materials suitable for these applications also make them difficult to grind. Grinding systems for such materials are often built around vitrified cBN (cubic boron nitride) wheels to realize maximum productivity and minimum cost per part. Conditions that yield the most economical combination of stock removal rate and wheel wear are key to the successful implementation of the grinding system. Identifying the transition point for excessive wheel wear is important. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of different cBN wheels when grinding difficult-to-grind (DTG) materials by determining the 'wheel wear characteristic curve', which correlates the G-ratio to the calculated tangential force per abrasive grain. With the proposed methodology, a threshold force per grit above which the wheel wear rate increases rapidly can be quickly identified. A comparison of performance for two abrasive product formulations in the grinding of three materials is presented. The obtained results can be applied for the development of grinding applications for DTG materials.