Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lot sizing and furnace scheduling in small foundries

A lot sizing and scheduling problem prevalent in small market-driven foundries is studied. There are two related decision levels: (I the furnace scheduling of metal alloy production, and (2) moulding machine planning which specifies the type and size of production lots. A mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation of the problem is proposed, but is impractical to solve in reasonable computing time for non-small instances. As a result, a faster relax-and-fix (RF) approach is developed that can also be used on a rolling horizon basis where only immediate-term schedules are implemented. As well as a MIP method to solve the basic RF approach, three variants of a local search method are also developed and tested using instances based on the literature. Finally, foundry-based tests with a real-order book resulted in a very substantial reduction of delivery delays and finished inventory, better use of capacity, and much faster schedule definition compared to the foundry`s own practice. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basic oxygen furnace slag as a treatment material for pathogens: Contribution of inactivation and attachment in virus attenuation

Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag media were studied as a potential treatment material in on-site sanitation systems. Batch and column studies were conducted to evaluate attenuation of the bacteriophage PR772 and 0.190 mu m diameter microspheres by BOF media, and to delineate the relative contributions of two principle processes of virus attenuation: inactivation and attachment. In the batch studies, conducted at 4 degrees C, substantial inactivation of PR772 did not occur in the pH 7.6 and 9.5 suspensions. At pH 11.4, bimodal inactivation of PR772 was observed, at an initial rate of 2.1 log C/C(0) day(-1) for the first two days, followed by a much slower rate of 0.124 log C/C(0) day(-1) over the following 10 days. Two column studies were conducted at 4 degrees C at a flow rate of 1 pore volume day(-1) using two slag sources (Stelco, Ontario; Tubarao, Brazil) combined with sand and pea gravel. In both column experiments, the effluent microsphere concentration approached input concentrations over time (reductions of 0.1-0.2 log C/C(0)), suggesting attachment processes for microspheres were negligible. Removal of PR772 virus was more pronounced both during the early stages of the experiments, but also after longer transport times (0.5-1.0 log C/C(0)). PR772 reduction appeared to be primarily as a result of virus inactivation in response to the elevated pH conditions generated by the BOF mixture (10.6-11.4). On-site sanitation systems using BOF media should be designed to maintain sufficient contact time between the BOF media and the wastewater to allow sufficient residence time of pathogens at elevated pH conditions. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.