Measuring complexity in three-trophic level systems

This essay is a trial on measuring complexity in a three-trophic level system by using a convex function of the informational entropy. The complexity measure defined here is compatible with the fact that real complexity lies between ordered and disordered states. Applying this measure to the data collected for two three-trophic level systems some hints about their organization are obtained. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of two round baling systems for harvesting understory biomass

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and to estimate costs of two round baling systems for harvesting understory biomass. One system was a cutter-shredderbaler prototype (Bio-baler). The other system required two successive operations. The first operation was cutting and shredding with a Supertrak tractor equipped with a Fecon mulcher head. The second operation was baling with a Claas baler. The machines were evaluated in three different pine stands on the Osceola National Forest in Florida, United States. Data collection included time study, fuel consumption and bale measurements. Material was collected from a sample of bales for heat and moisture content determination. On the most representative site (Site 2), the Bio-baler recovered 8.05 green t ha(-1) while the mulcher and the Claas baler recovered 9.75 green t ha(-1) (43 and 52 percent of original understory biomass, respectively). Productivity was 0.30 ha h(-1) for the Bio-baler and 0.51 ha h(-1) for the Claas baler. Density of the bales was 321 green kg m(-3) for the Bio-baler and 373 green kg m(-3) for the Claas baler. Average net heat content was 6263 MJ bale(-1) for the Bio-baler and 6695 MJ bale(-1) for the Claas baler with biomass containing 38 percent of moisture content on a wet basis. cost per unit area was less with the Bio-baler (US$320.91 ha(-1)) than with the mulcher-baler system (US$336.62-US$596.77 ha(-1)). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of a species is particularly important for pests with strong invasive abilities. Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard, possibly native to South America, is a spider mite pest of solanaceous crops. This mite is considered an invasive species in Africa and Europe. A CLIMEX model was developed to predict its global distribution. The model results fitted the known records of T. evansi except for some records in dry locations. Dryness as well as excess moisture stresses play important roles in limiting the spread of the mite in the tropics. In North America and Eurasia its potential distribution appears to be essentially limited by cold stress. Detailed potential distribution maps are provided for T. evansi in the Mediterranean Basin and in Japan. These two regions correspond to climatic borders for the species. Mite establishment in these areas can be explained by their relatively mild winters. The Mediterranean region is also the main area where tomato is grown in open fields in Europe and where the pest represents a threat. According to the model, the whole Mediterranean region has the potential to be extensively colonized by the mite. Wide expansion of the mite to new areas in Africa is also predicted. Agricultural issues highlighted by the modelled distribution of the pest are discussed.

Effectiveness of two systems for the spraying of pesticides in citrus trees

Citriculture normally uses high application volumes in pesticide solutions (of 2.000 to 5.000 L ha(-1)) to control pests and diseases that affect the crop, which generates an increase in operational costs. For this reason, diverse systems of application are being developed to reduce application volumes and improve the uniformity of pesticide deposition. The goal of this work was to evaluate the efficiency of two application systems of pesticides in citrus trees. One system used a prototype for terrestrial application with rotary disc atomizers that are widely used in agricultural aviation, and the other system used hollow cone tip hydraulics. For the treatment of the trees the insecticide Metidation was used at the dose of 180 gr per hectare. To study the droplet spectrum, water-sensitive papers were installed at different positions in the trees canopy, and for the study of insecticide deposition leaves of the treated plants were collected. The water-sensitive papers were collected and analyzed using a computerized image analysis system (e-Sprinkle, EMBRAPA, Sao Paulo, Brazil), and the leaves analyzed by the technique of gas chromatography. Pesticide deposition was similar in both application system, although the solution volume used by the application system equipped with rotary disc atomizers was one quarter of the volume used by the application system equipped with hydraulic tips, reducing considerably the cost of the phytosanitary treatments.

PROPOSAL OF A PERFORMANCE MEASURING SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

The leaders` organizations of several different sectors have as characteristic to measure their own performance in a systematic way. However, this concept is still unusual in agricultural enterprises, including the mechanization sector. Mechanization has an important role on the production costs and to know its performance is a key factor for the agricultural enterprise success. This work was generated by the importance that measurement of performance has for the management and the mechanization impact on the production costs. Its aim is to propose an integrated performance measurement system to give support to agricultural management. The methodology was divided in two steps: adjustment of a conceptual model based on Balanced Score Card - BSC; application of the model in a study case at sugar cane mill. The adjustment and the application of the conceptual model allowed to obtain the performance index in a systematic way, that are associated to: costs and deadline ( traditionally used); control and improvement on the quality of operations and support process; environmental preservation; safety; health; employees satisfaction; development of information systems. The adjusted model helped the development of the performance measurement system for the mechanized management systems and the index allows an integrated view of the enterprise, related to its strategic objectives.

WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Nitrogen fertilization in common bean crops under no-tillage and conventional systems.

Nitrogen fertilization in common bean crops under no-tillage and conventional systems. Nitrogen fertilizer is necessary for high yields in common bean crops and N responses under conditions of no-tillage and conventional systems are still basic needs. Thus, the objective of this research was to evaluate the effect of N application and common bean yield in no-tillage and conventional systems. The experimental design was a randomized block in a factorial scheme (2x8+1) with four replications. The treatments were constituted by the combination of two N doses (40 and 80 kg ha(-1)) applied at side dressing at eight distinct stadia during vegetative development of the common bean (V(4-3), V(4-4), V(4-5), V(4-6), V(4-7), V(4-8), V(4-9) and V(4-10)), in addition to a control plot without N in side dressing. The experiment was conducted over two years (2002 and 2003) in no-tillage on millet crop residues and conventional plow system. It was concluded that N fertilizer at the V(4) stadium of common bean promotes similar seed yields in no-tillage and conventional systems. Yield differences between no-tillage and conventional systems are inconsistent in the same agricultural area.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach On the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Modelling the line variations from the wind-wind shock emissions of WR 30a

The study of Wolf-Rayet stars plays an important role in evolutionary theories of massive stars. Among these objects, similar to 20 per cent are known to be in binary systems and can therefore be used for the mass determination of these stars. Most of these systems are not spatially resolved and spectral lines can be used to constrain the orbital parameters. However, part of the emission may originate in the interaction zone between the stellar winds, modifying the line profiles and thus challenging us to use different models to interpret them. In this work, we analysed the He II lambda 4686 angstrom + C IV lambda 4658 angstrom blended lines of WR 30a (WO4+O5) assuming that part of the emission originate in the wind-wind interaction zone. In fact, this line presents a quiescent base profile, attributed to the WO wind, and a superposed excess, which varies with the orbital phase along the 4.6-d period. Under these assumptions, we were able to fit the excess spectral line profile and central velocity for all phases, except for the longest wavelengths, where a spectral line with constant velocity seems to be present. The fit parameters provide the eccentricity and inclination of the binary orbit, from which it is possible to constrain the stellar masses.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Comparing machine learning classifiers in potential distribution modelling

Species` potential distribution modelling consists of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements of a species from biotic and abiotic conditions where the species is known to occur. Such models can be valuable tools to understand the biogeography of species and to support the prediction of its presence/absence considering a particular environment scenario. This paper investigates the use of different supervised machine learning techniques to model the potential distribution of 35 plant species from Latin America. Each technique was able to extract a different representation of the relations between the environmental conditions and the distribution profile of the species. The experimental results highlight the good performance of random trees classifiers, indicating this particular technique as a promising candidate for modelling species` potential distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.