Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Soil CO(2) emission estimated by different interpolation techniques

Soil CO(2) emissions are highly variable, both spatially and across time, with significant changes even during a one-day period. The objective of this study was to compare predictions of the diurnal soil CO(2) emissions in an agricultural field when estimated by ordinary kriging and sequential Gaussian simulation. The dataset consisted of 64 measurements taken in the morning and in the afternoon on bare soil in southern Brazil. The mean soil CO(2) emissions were significantly different between the morning (4.54 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) and afternoon (6.24 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) measurements. However, the spatial variability structures were similar, as the models were spherical and had close range values of 40.1 and 40.0 m for the morning and afternoon semivariograms. In both periods, the sequential Gaussian simulation maps were more efficient for the estimations of emission than ordinary kriging. We believe that sequential Gaussian simulation can improve estimations of soil CO(2) emissions in the field, as this property is usually highly non-Gaussian distributed.

Changes in the genetic structure of Bacteria and microbial activity in an agricultural soil amended with tannery sludge

The application of tannery sludge to soils is a form of recycling; however, few studies have examined the impacts of this practice on soil microbial properties. We studied effects of two applications (2006 and 2007) of tannery sludge (with a low chromium content) on the structure of the bacterial community and on the microbial activity of soils. We fertilized an agricultural area in Rolandia, Parana state, Brazil with different doses of sludge based on total N content, which ranged from 0 to 1200 kg N ha(-1). Sludge remained on the soil surface for three months before being plowed. Soils were sampled seven times during the experiment. Bacterial community structure, assessed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), was modified by the application of tannery sludge. Soon after the first application, there was clear separation between the bacterial communities in different treatments, such that each dose of sludge was associated with a specific community. These differences remained until 300 days after application and also after the second sludge application, but 666 days after the beginning of the experiment no differences were found in the bacterial communities of the lowest doses and the control. The principal response curve (PRC) analysis showed that the first sludge application strongly stimulated biological activity even 300 days after application. The second application also stimulated activity, but at a lower magnitude and for a shorter time, given that 260 days after the second application there was no difference in biological activity among treatments. PRC also showed that the properties most influenced by the application of tannery sludge were enzymatic activities related to N cycling (asparaginase and urease). The redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that tannery sludge`s influence on microbial activity is mainly related to increases in inorganic N and soil pH. Results showed that changes in the structure of the bacterial community in the studied soils were directly related to changes of their biological activity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reshaping the global agricultural landscape: perspectives from Brazil

This article highlights the main changes observed in Brazilian agriculture and analyzes the connections of the observed changes in global agriculture. My approach to the analysis focuses the main drivers of changes, where institutions play a central role. Three driving forces are are considered: first, the effects of global demand for food, fiber, and energy; second, the sustainability debate; and third, the bio-energy paradigm. Each driver presents both local as well as global effects. The article does not emphasize the impact changes in Brazil had on the global agricultural landscape but argues that the impacts run from local and global changes, which cannot be discussed separately.

Stability property of matchings is a natural solution concept in coalitional market games

Stability of matchings was proved to be a new cooperative equilibrium concept in Sotomayor (Dynamics and equilibrium: essays in honor to D. Gale, 1992). That paper introduces the innovation of treating as multi-dimensional the payoff of a player with a quota greater than one. This is done for the many-to-many matching model with additively separable utilities, for which the stability concept is defined. It is then proved, via linear programming, that the set of stable outcomes is nonempty and it may be strictly bigger than the set of dual solutions and strictly smaller than the core. The present paper defines a general concept of stability and shows that this concept is a natural solution concept, stronger than the core concept, for a much more general coalitional game than a matching game. Instead of mutual agreements inside partnerships, the players are allowed to make collective agreements inside coalitions of any size and to distribute his labor among them. A collective agreement determines the level of labor at which the coalition operates and the division, among its members, of the income generated by the coalition. An allocation specifies a set of collective agreements for each player.

Customer Perception about Loyalty Programs in Agricultural Market: a case study

This study discusses the use of loyalty programs and Customer perception in, agricultural market. The theoretical review includes relationship marketing, its objectives, dimensions and instruments, and loyalty programs. The method for the empirical part consisted on qualitative research, through a case study conducted at one of the largest crop protection chemical companies in Brazil. The case is representative once this company was pioneer in its segment in adopting the customer relationship management. (CRM) approach to-their clients: It has been a consensus that customer relationship is a tool to amplify the Customer share. This.,is so, due the. increasing competition generated by the entrance of generic products and the retaliation actions adopted by the multinational groups. The case study includes a market overview, a description of the company, its loyalty program, the image of the program from the customer`s perspective, and the main results acquired with the CRM program. The Study also presents some recommendations for-companies that are pursuing strategies to. increase their customer share through loyalty programs.

Microbicidal property of B1 cell derived mononuclear phagocyte

A mononuclear phagocyte derived from B1b cells (B1CDP) has been described. As these cells migrate from the peritoneal cavity to non-specific inflammatory lesion sites and are highly phagocytic via Fc and mannose receptors, their microbicidal ability of these cells was investigated using the Coxiella burnetii cell infection model in vitro. In this report, the pattern of infection and C burnetii phase II survival in B1CDP phagosomes was compared with the pattern of infection of peritoneal macrophages from Xid mice (PM phi) and bone marrow derived macrophages (BMM phi). Infection was assessed by determining the large parasitophorous vacuole formation, the relative focus forming units and the quantification of DAPI (4`,6-diamino-2-phenylindole) fluorescence images acquired by confocal microscopy. When compared to macrophages, B1CDP are more permissive to the bacterial infection and less effective to kill them. Further, results suggest that IL-10 secreted by B1 cells are involved in their susceptibility to infection by C burnetti, since B1CDP from IL-10 KO mice are more competent to control C. burnetii infection than cells from wild type mice. These data contribute further to characterize B1CDP as a novel mononuclear phagocyte. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Teleantagonism: A pharmacodynamic property of the primary nociceptive neuron

Previous work from our group showed that intrathecal (i.t.) administration of substances such as glutamate, NMDA, or PGE(2) induced sensitization of the primary nociceptive neuron (PNN hypernociception) that was inhibited by a distal intraplantar (i.pl.) injection of either morphine or dipyrone. This pharmacodynamic phenomenon is referred to in the present work as ""teleantagonism``. We previously observed that the antinociceptive effect of i.t. morphine could be blocked by injecting inhibitors of the NO signaling pathway in the paw (i.pl.), and this effect was used to explain the mechanism of opioid-induced peripheral analgesia by i.t. administration. The objective of the present investigation was to determine whether this teleantagonism phenomenon was specific to this biochemical pathway (NO) or was a general property of the PNNs. Teleantagonism was investigated by administering test substances to the two ends of the PNN (i.e., to distal and proximal terminals; i.pl. plus i.t. or i.t. plus i.pl. injections). We found teleantagonism when: (i) inhibitors of the NO signaling pathway were injected distally during the antinociception induced by opioid agonists; (ii) a nonselective COX inhibitor was tested against PNN sensitization by IL-1 beta; (iii) selective opioid-receptor antagonists tested against antinociception induced by corresponding selective agonists. Although the dorsal root ganglion seems to be an important site for drug interactions, the teleantagonism phenomenon suggests that, in PNNs, a local sensitization spreads to the entire cell and constitutes an intriguing and not yet completely understood pharmacodynamic property of this group of neurons.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach On the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Sanitation assessment of wastewater treated by stabilization ponds for potential reuse in agricultural irrigation sanitation assessment

Wastewater reuse has become an important alternative to agricultural irrigation; on the other hand, it poses concern with regard to public health. Total coliform and Escherichia coli concentration, presence of helminth eggs and Salmonella, and physical-chemical parameters were evaluated in raw and treated wastewater. Chemical and biochemical oxygen demand removal efficiency was 74.6 and 77.9%, respectively. As for organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids, total efficiency removal was 17.4, 12.5, and 32.9%, respectively. The average density of total coliforms and E. coli was 3.5 x 10(9) and 1.8 x 10(8) MPN/100 mL and 1.1 x 10(7) MPN/100 mL and 3.9 x 10(5) MPN/100 mL for raw and treated wastewater, respectively. Ascaris eggs were observed in 80.8% of the samples collected, and viable eggs in 42.3% of the samples. Salmonella was detected in 36.4% of the samples. The values observed in treated wastewater did not show the adequate bacteriological quality, as recommended by World Health Organization (Geneva, Switzerland). Therefore, additional measures should be taken to achieve an improved microbiological and parasitological quality.

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia accounts for a disproportionate global scale fraction of both carbon emissions from biomass burning and biodiversity erosion through habitat loss. Here we use field- and remote-sensing data to examine the effects of private landholding size on the amount and type of forest cover retained within economically active rural properties in an aging southern Amazonian deforestation frontier. Data on both upland and riparian forest cover from a survey of 300 rural properties indicated that 49.4% (SD = 29.0%) of the total forest cover was maintained as of 2007. and that property size is a key regional-scale determinant of patterns of deforestation and land-use change. Small properties (<= 150 ha) retained a lower proportion of forest (20.7%, SD = 17.6) than did large properties (>150 ha; 55.6%, SD = 27.2). Generalized linear models showed that property size had a positive effect on remaining areas of both upland and total forest cover. Using a Landsat time-series, the age of first clear-cutting that could be mapped within the boundaries of each property had a negative effect on the proportion of upland, riparian, and total forest cover retained. Based on these data, we show contrasts in land-use strategies between smallholders and largeholders, as well as differences in compliance with legal requirements in relation to minimum forest cover set-asides within private landholdings. This suggests that property size structure must be explicitly considered in landscape-scale conservation planning initiatives guiding agro-pastoral frontier expansion into remaining areas of tropical forest. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal scaling property of the charge balance function in Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

We present measurements of the charge balance function, from the charged particles, for diverse pseudorapidity and transverse momentum ranges in Au + Au collisions at root S(NN) = 200 GeV using the STAR detector at RHIC. We observe that the balance function is boost-invariant within the pseudorapidity coverage vertical bar-1.3, 1.3 vertical bar. The balance function properly scaled by the width of the observed pseudorapidity window does not depend on the position or size of the pseudorapidity window. This scaling property also holds for particles in different transverse momentum ranges. In addition, we find that the width of the balance function decreases monotonically with increasing transverse momentum for all centrality classes. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaction-diffusion systems coupled at the boundary and the Morse-Smale property

We study an one-dimensional nonlinear reaction-diffusion system coupled on the boundary. Such system comes from modeling problems of temperature distribution on two bars of same length, jointed together, with different diffusion coefficients. We prove the transversality property of unstable and stable manifolds assuming all equilibrium points are hyperbolic. To this end, we write the system as an equation with noncontinuous diffusion coefficient. We then study the nonincreasing property of the number of zeros of a linearized nonautonomous equation as well as the Sturm-Liouville properties of the solutions of a linear elliptic problem. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.