Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Changes in the genetic structure of Bacteria and microbial activity in an agricultural soil amended with tannery sludge

The application of tannery sludge to soils is a form of recycling; however, few studies have examined the impacts of this practice on soil microbial properties. We studied effects of two applications (2006 and 2007) of tannery sludge (with a low chromium content) on the structure of the bacterial community and on the microbial activity of soils. We fertilized an agricultural area in Rolandia, Parana state, Brazil with different doses of sludge based on total N content, which ranged from 0 to 1200 kg N ha(-1). Sludge remained on the soil surface for three months before being plowed. Soils were sampled seven times during the experiment. Bacterial community structure, assessed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), was modified by the application of tannery sludge. Soon after the first application, there was clear separation between the bacterial communities in different treatments, such that each dose of sludge was associated with a specific community. These differences remained until 300 days after application and also after the second sludge application, but 666 days after the beginning of the experiment no differences were found in the bacterial communities of the lowest doses and the control. The principal response curve (PRC) analysis showed that the first sludge application strongly stimulated biological activity even 300 days after application. The second application also stimulated activity, but at a lower magnitude and for a shorter time, given that 260 days after the second application there was no difference in biological activity among treatments. PRC also showed that the properties most influenced by the application of tannery sludge were enzymatic activities related to N cycling (asparaginase and urease). The redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that tannery sludge`s influence on microbial activity is mainly related to increases in inorganic N and soil pH. Results showed that changes in the structure of the bacterial community in the studied soils were directly related to changes of their biological activity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Production and characteristics comparison of crude beta-glucosidases produced by microorganisms Thermoascus aurantiacus e Aureobasidium pullulans in agricultural wastes

The purified beta-glucosidase of Aureobasidium pullulans ER-16 is one of more thermostable enzyme reported to date. Considering the unfeasibility of using purified enzyme for industrial application, it was interesting to analyze this property for the crude enzyme. Thermophilic fungus Thermoascus aurantiacus CBMAI-756 and mesophilic A. pullulans ER-16 were cultivated in different hemicellulosic materials on solid-state cultivation for beta-glucosidase production. Wheat bran was most appropriate for beta-glucosidase production by both microorganisms. T. aurantiacus exhibited maximum enzyme production (7.0 U/ml or 70 U/g) at 48-72 h and A. pullulans a maximum (1.3 U/ml or 13 U/g) at 120 h. Maximum activities were at 75 degrees C with optimum pH at 4.5 and 4.0, for T aurantiacus and A. pullulans, respectively. A. pullulans`s beta-glucosidase was more pH stable (4.5-10.0 against 4.5-8.0) and more thermostable (90% after 1 h at 75 degrees C against 85% after 1 h at 70 degrees C) than the enzyme from the thermophilic T. aurantiacus. The t((1/2)) at 80 degrees C were 50 and 12.5 min for A. pullulans and T. aurantiascus, respectively. These data confirm the high thermostability of crude beta-glucosidase from A. pullulans. Both beta-glucosidases were strongly inhibited by glucose, but ethanol significantly increased the activity of the enzyme from T. aurantiacus. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

`As intermitencias da morte`: debate concerning the right to lusophone literature in the youngers and adults` literacy process.

The article discusses the right to lusophone literature - Saramago, as example - in the process of teacher` s formation and inside of adults` literacy through formation research process at Sao Paulo city.

Reshaping the global agricultural landscape: perspectives from Brazil

This article highlights the main changes observed in Brazilian agriculture and analyzes the connections of the observed changes in global agriculture. My approach to the analysis focuses the main drivers of changes, where institutions play a central role. Three driving forces are are considered: first, the effects of global demand for food, fiber, and energy; second, the sustainability debate; and third, the bio-energy paradigm. Each driver presents both local as well as global effects. The article does not emphasize the impact changes in Brazil had on the global agricultural landscape but argues that the impacts run from local and global changes, which cannot be discussed separately.

Customer Perception about Loyalty Programs in Agricultural Market: a case study

This study discusses the use of loyalty programs and Customer perception in, agricultural market. The theoretical review includes relationship marketing, its objectives, dimensions and instruments, and loyalty programs. The method for the empirical part consisted on qualitative research, through a case study conducted at one of the largest crop protection chemical companies in Brazil. The case is representative once this company was pioneer in its segment in adopting the customer relationship management. (CRM) approach to-their clients: It has been a consensus that customer relationship is a tool to amplify the Customer share. This.,is so, due the. increasing competition generated by the entrance of generic products and the retaliation actions adopted by the multinational groups. The case study includes a market overview, a description of the company, its loyalty program, the image of the program from the customer`s perspective, and the main results acquired with the CRM program. The Study also presents some recommendations for-companies that are pursuing strategies to. increase their customer share through loyalty programs.

The food business environment and the role of China and Brazil building a ""food bridge""

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to discuss the economic crisis of 2008/2009 and the major impacts on developing nations and food-producing countries Within this macro-environment of food chains, there is concern that food inflation might come back sooner than expected The role of China as one of the major food consumers in the future, and Brazil, as the major food producer, is described as the food bridge, and an agenda of common development of these countries suggested. Design/methodology/approach - This paper reviews literature on muses of food inflation, production shortages, and investigation of programs to solve the problem in the future, it is also based on author`s personal insights and experience of working on this field in the last 15 years, and recent discussions in forums and interviews Findings - The major factors that jointly caused food prices increase in 2007/2008 were population growth, Income distribution, urbanization, dollar devaluations, commodity funds, social programs, production shortages, and bionic`s A list of ten policies is suggested. horizontal expansion of food production, vertical expansion, reduction in transaction costs, in protectionism and other taxes, investment in logistics, technology and better coordination, contracts, new generation of fertilizers and to use the best sources of biofuels. Originality/value - Two major outputs from this paper are the ""food demand model"" that inserts in one model the trends and muses of food inflation and the solutions, and the ""food bridge concept"" that also aligns in one box the imminent major food chain cooperation between China and Brazil

Stereotactic disconnection of hypothalamic hamartoma to control seizure and behavior disturbance: case report and literature review

An 18-year-old boy with refractory epilepsy and aggressiveness associated to a hypothalamic hamartoma was submitted to a stereotactically guided lesion by thermocoagulation. The target was based on magnetic resonance (MR) images merged with computed tomography scan images taken on the day of surgery while patient was on a stereotactic frame. In order to reveal structures not discernible in MR images, the Schaltenbrand digital brain atlas was merged onto the patient`s images. Target and trajectory of the depth electrode were chosen based on three-dimensional imaging reconstructions. A surgical plan was devised to disconnect the hypothalamic hamartoma from the hypothalamus, medial forebrain bundle, fasciculus princeps, and dorsal longitudinal fasciculus. Our target was placed at the inferior portion of the posterolateral component of the hamartoma, bordering the normal hypothalamus. The patient evolved with marked lessening of aggressiveness. Seizure frequency was reduced from several seizures per day to less than one tonic-clonic seizure during sleep per month and only two episodes suggestive of partial complex seizures during daytime. These results have remained consistent over a 24-month postoperative follow-up. Functional neuroanatomy of hypothalamic connections involved in seizure propagation and aggressive behavior was reviewed.

Leprosy in transplant recipients: report of a case after liver transplantation and review of the literature

P>Leprosy still is an important public health problem in several parts of the world including Brazil. Unlike the diseases caused by other mycobacteria, the incidence and clinical presentation of leprosy seems little affected in immunosuppressed patients. We report the first case, to our knowledge, of a liver transplant patient who developed multi-bacillary leprosy. The patient presented with papules and infiltrated plaques with loss of sensation suggestive of leprosy 3.5 years after living-related liver transplantation for autoimmune hepatitis. A skin biopsy showing non-caseating macrophagic granulomas, neuritis, and intact acid-fast bacilli on Fite-Faraco stain, confirmed the diagnosis of borderline lepromatous leprosy. The donor of the liver did not show any evidence of leprosy. During follow-up, the patient presented 2 episodes of upgrading leprosy type I reactions, 1 mild before leprosy treatment, and 1 moderate 3 months after receiving standard multi-drug treatment (rifampicin, clofazimine, and dapsone). These reactions were accompanied by increase in liver function tests, especially of canalicular enzymes. This reaction occurred despite the patient`s triple immunosuppression regimen. The moderate reaction was successfully treated with further immunosuppression (prednisone, 0.5 mg/kg). Currently, the patient is asymptomatic, off leprosy medication, with routine liver transplant follow-up. The dilemmas in diagnosis and management of such a case are discussed and the literature on leprosy in transplant recipients is reviewed.

Sensory phenomena in obsessive-compulsive disorder and tic disorders: A review of the literature

Introduction: A variety of subjective experiences have been reported to be associated with the symptom expression of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Tourette syndrome (TS). First described in TS patients, these subjective experiences have been defined in different ways. There is no consensus in the literature on how to best define subjective experiences. This lack of consensus may hinder the understanding of study results and prevents the possibility of including them in the search for etiological factors associated with OCD and TS. Methods: The objective of this article was to review the descriptions of subjective experiences in the English-language literature from 1980-2007. This meta-analytic review was carried out using the English-language literature from 1980-2007 available on MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library databases using the following search terms: premonitory urges, sensory tics, ""just-right"" perceptions, sensory phenomena, sensory experiences, incompleteness, ""not just-right"" phenomena, obsessive-compulsive disorder and TS, including OCD and/or TS, in all combination searches. We also searched for the references cited in each article previously found that referred to the aforementioned terms. Thirty-one articles were included in the study. Results: Subjective experiences, in particular, the sensory phenomena, were important phenotypic variables in the characterization of the tic-related OCD subtype and were more frequent in the early-onset OCD subtype. There is a paucity of studies using structured interviews to assess sensory phenomena, their epidemiology and the etiological mechanisms associated with sensory phenomena. Conclusion: The current review provides some evidence that sensory phenomena can be useful to identify more homogenous subgroups of OCD and TS patients and should be included as important phenotypic variables in future clinical, genetic, neuroimaging, and treatment-response studies.

Chromoblastomycosis: study of 27 cases and review of medical literature

BACKGROUND: Chromoblastomycosis is a subcutaneous mycosis that occurs mainly in rural workers although is being more commonly found among people working in other sectors. The fungus penetrates the skin after its inoculation and the most frequently isolated agent is the Fonsecaea pedrosoi. OBJECTIVES: This study aims at evaluating patients suffering from chromoblastomycosis admitted into the Department of Dermatology of the University Hospital of the Faculty of Medicine of Sao Paulo State during the ten-year period from 1997 to 2007. METHODS: It is a retrospective study and the medical report cards of 27 Brazilian patients diagnosed as suffering from Chromoblastomycosis from 1997 to 2007 at the Dermatology Department of the Medical School, University of Sao Paulo were reviewed. The following items were analyzed: previous therapeutic approaches; treatment implemented by the group; length of time between the appearing of the lesion and diagnosis; age; gender; profession; origin; site of lesions; isolated agents found in culture and histopathology. RESULTS: Twenty two patients were from the state of Sao Paulo whereas the others came from the states of Bahia and Rondonia. 37% of them were rural workers. Men were more frequently infected (85%). Lesions were more commonly found on the lower limbs (59.2%). In 52% of the cases the isolated agent was the dematiaceous fungus Fonsecaea. pedrosoi. Biopsies showed sclerotic bodies in 92.5% of the cases. CONCLUSION: Data found are in accordance with medical literature on the subject. The disease had been previously studied in our institution in 1983 by Cuce et al. This present study is the second retrospective one about the characteristics of patients suffering from chromoblastmycosis which has been published in indexed medical literature in the state of Sao Paulo.