37 resultados para ARI endemicity forecasting
Resumo:
Human bocavirus (HBoV) is a parvovirus recently identified in association with acute respiratory infections (ARI). Despite its worldwide occurrence, little is known on the pathogenesis of HBoV infections. In addition, few systematic studies of HBoV in ARI have been conducted in Latin America. Therefore, in order to test whether active viral replication of human bocavirus is associated with respiratory diseases and to understand the clinical impact of this virus in patients with these diseases, we performed a 3-year retrospective hospital-based study of HBoV in outpatients and inpatients with symptoms of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) in Brazil. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) from 1015 patients with respiratory symptoms were tested for HBoV DNA by PCR. All samples positive for HBoV were tested by PCR for all other respiratory viruses, had HBoV viral loads determined by quantitative real time PCR and, when possible, were tested by RT-PCR for HBoV VP1 mRNA, as evidence of active viral replication. HBoV was detected in 4.8% of patients, with annual rates of 10.0%, 3.0% and 3.0% in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The range of respiratory symptoms was similar between HBoV-positive and HBoV-negative ARI patients. However, a higher rate of diarrhea was observed in HBoV-positive patients. High HBoV viral loads (> 10(8) copies/mL) and diarrhea were significantly more frequent in patients with exclusive infection by HBoV and in patients with detection of HBoV VP1 mRNA than in patients with viral co-infection, detected in 72.9% of patients with HBoV. In summary, our data demonstrated that active HBoV replication was detected in a small percentage of patients with ARI and was correlated with concurrent diarrhea and lack of other viral co-infections.
Resumo:
Background: The ideal malaria parasite populations for initial mapping of genomic regions contributing to phenotypes such as drug resistance and virulence, through genome-wide association studies, are those with high genetic diversity, allowing for numerous informative markers, and rare meiotic recombination, allowing for strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers and phenotype-determining loci. However, levels of genetic diversity and LD in field populations of the major human malaria parasite P. vivax remain little characterized. Results: We examined single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and LD patterns across a 100-kb chromosome segment of P. vivax in 238 field isolates from areas of low to moderate malaria endemicity in South America and Asia, where LD tends to be more extensive than in holoendemic populations, and in two monkey-adapted strains (Salvador-I, from El Salvador, and Belem, from Brazil). We found varying levels of SNP diversity and LD across populations, with the highest diversity and strongest LD in the area of lowest malaria transmission. We found several clusters of contiguous markers with rare meiotic recombination and characterized a relatively conserved haplotype structure among populations, suggesting the existence of recombination hotspots in the genome region analyzed. Both silent and nonsynonymous SNPs revealed substantial between-population differentiation, which accounted for similar to 40% of the overall genetic diversity observed. Although parasites clustered according to their continental origin, we found evidence for substructure within the Brazilian population of P. vivax. We also explored between-population differentiation patterns revealed by loci putatively affected by natural selection and found marked geographic variation in frequencies of nucleotide substitutions at the pvmdr-1 locus, putatively associated with drug resistance. Conclusion: These findings support the feasibility of genome-wide association studies in carefully selected populations of P. vivax, using relatively low densities of markers, but underscore the risk of false positives caused by population structure at both local and regional levels.
Resumo:
The unusual bivalve Guiratingia mendesi is redescribed from the original material. Detailed analysis of hinge and muscle scars allows more refined designation of its taxonomic position and affinities to other Permian bivalves from the Parana Basin. Guiratingia mendesi is characterized by very small, anteriorly expanded shells, with a great number of muscle striae within the area delimited by the pallial line. A flattened area is noted alongside the commissure of shell. The presence of a triangular blunt tooth in the right valve allows its designation to Megadesmidae. The absence of accessory muscle scars ""a"" and ""b"" and pedal elevator indicate that the genus belongs to the Plesiocyprinellinae, a group of bivalves considered endemic to the Passa Dois Group. Guiratingia mendesi is found, however, in limestones of the Palermo Formation (Middle Artinskian), nearly 100 in below the base of the Irati Formation (Late Artinskian). Until now, it was believed that within the Permian succession of Parana Basin, pre-Irati bivalves were all gondwanic or cosmopolitan. Guiratingia mendesi was an endemic, active burrower that resembles Runnegariella fragilis from the Permian Teresina Formation. This indicates that during Palermo times restricted paleogeographic conditions have existed within the huge Parana epeiric sea, favoring endemicity, probably in marine bayments close to its margins. The presence of an anteriorly expanded shell in G mendesi is a condition also seen in other Mesozoic and Cenozoic anomalodesmatans, demonstrating the recurrence of shell forms in distinct lineages of this interesting group of bivalves.
Resumo:
Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Chloride attack in marine environments or in structures where deicing salts are used will not always show profiles with concentrations that decrease from the external surface to the interior of the concrete. Some profiles show an increase in chloride concentrations from when a peak is formed. This type of profile must be analyzed in a different way from the traditional model of Fick`s second law to generate more precise service life models. A model for forecasting the penetration of chloride ions as a function of time for profiles having formed a peak. To confirm the efficiency of this model, it is necessary to observe the behavior of a chloride profile with peak in a specific structure over a period of time. To achieve this, two chloride profiles with different ages (22 and 27 years) were extracted from the same structure. The profile obtained from the 22-year sample was used to estimate the chloride profile at 27 years using three models: a) the traditional model using Fick`s second law and extrapolating the value of C(S)-external surface chloride concentration; b) the traditional model using Fick`s second law and shifting the x-axis to the peak depth; c) the previously proposed model. The results from these models were compared with the actual profile measured in the 27-year sample and the results were analyzed. The model was presented with good precision for this study of case, requiring to be tested with other structures in use.
Resumo:
Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
More than 1982 species in 90 genera were included in an analysis of the biogeography of the Phytoseiidae, a family of predatory mites. Seven biogeographic regions were taken into account: Nearctic, Neotropical, Ethiopian, West Palaearctic, East Palaearctic, Oriental, and Australasian. The number of species was particularly high in the Neotropical, Oriental, and West Palaearctic regions. These regions also present the highest levels of species endemism. The number of genera was quite similar in all regions except for the Neotropics, which also had a high level of endemism. The possible Gondwanian (Neotropical, Ethiopian, Australasian, and Oriental regions) origin of the Phytoseiidae, most probably in the Neotropics, and their possible radiation to Laurasia (Nearctic, West Palaearctic, and East Palaearctic regions) are discussed. The comparison between genera and species in the different biogeographic regions indicate the importance of both dispersal and vicariance events in the evolution of the group. Dispersal is assumed to have been most important between Neotropical and Nearctic regions and between East Palaearctic and Oriental regions, whereas vicariance could have been the dominating process between Australasian, Ethiopian, and Oriental regions, as well as between West and East Palaearctic regions. A parsimony analysis of endemicity showed the Neotropical and the Nearctic regions to be isolated from the other regions. This is certainly due to a diversification after the continents drifted apart and then a high dispersal between Nearctic and Neotropical regions. Different phylogenetic hypotheses and scenarios are proposed for each subfamily based on the results obtained and further investigations are proposed. (C) 2008 The Linnean Society of London.
Resumo:
Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.
Resumo:
A warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of apple, developed in the southeastern United States, uses cumulative hours of leaf wetness duration (LWD) to predict the timing of the first appearance of signs. In the Upper Midwest United States, however, this warning system has resulted in sporadic disease control failures. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the warning system`s algorithm could be modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk. Hourly LWD, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), and temperature data were collected from orchards in Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in 2005 and 2006. Timing of the first appearance of SBFS signs was determined by weekly scouting. Preliminary analysis using scatterplots and boxplots suggested that Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% could be a useful predictor of SBFS appearance. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive performance of cumulative LWD and cumulative hours of RH >= 97%. Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% was a more conservative and accurate predictor than cumulative LWD for 15 site years in the Upper Midwest, but not for four site years in North Carolina. Performance of the SBFS warning system in the Upper Midwest and climatically similar regions may be improved if cumulative hours of RH >= 97% were substituted for cumulative LWD to predict the first appearance of SBFS.
Resumo:
Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.
Resumo:
Biogeography deals with the combined analysis of the spatial and temporal components of the evolutionary process. To this purpose, biogeographical analysis should consider two extra steps: a reciprocal illumination step, and a consilience step. Even if the traditional challenges of biogeography were successfully handled, the obtained hypothesis is not necessarily meaningful in biogeographical terms--it needs continuous test in the light of external hypotheses. For this reason, a concept analogous to Hennig`s reciprocal illumination is valuable, as well as a sort of biogeographical consilience in Whewell`s sense. Firstly, through the search for different classes of evidence, information useful to improve the hypothesis can be accessed via reciprocal illumination. Following, a more general hypothesis would arise through a consilience process, when the hypothesis explains phenomena not contemplated during its construction, as the distribution of other taxa or the existence (or absence) of fossils. This procedure aims to evaluate the robustness of biogeographical hypotheses as scientific theories. Such theories are reliable descriptions of how life changes its form both in space and time, putting historical biogeography close to Croizat`s statement of evolution as a three dimensional phenomenon.
Resumo:
Objectives: The relationship between saddle nose deformity (SND) in Wegener`s granulomatosis (WG) and other clinical features, including retro-orbital mass formation (ROM), has been poor described. Therefore, this relationship was analyzed retrospectively from 2000 to 2010. Patients and Methods: Eighteen consecutive WG patients with SND diagnosed by computed tomography were matched to 36 WG patients without SND (control group) for gender, age at WG diagnosis and disease duration. Results: No difference was found between the two groups in relation to WG type (limited and systemic forms), ethnicity, laboratory features, constitutional symptoms or clinical manifestations, including upper respiratory tract, and treatment, except for ROM (33.3 vs. 2.8% in SND(+) and SND(-) groups, respectively; p=0.004) and subglottic stenosis (22.2 vs. 2.8%; p=0.038). However, on multivariate analysis, only ROM (OR 17.15; 95% CI 1.11-265.52) was statistically associated to SND. In addition, in more than half of the cases, SND manifested prior to ROM. Conclusions: Results of this prospective analysis showed that SND was strongly associated to ROM in WG. Since early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of orbital involvement could lead to better prognosis, the presence of SND warrants additional vigilance.
Resumo:
Study Design. A case report describing chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis (CRMO) with initial presentation limited to spine, successfully treated by anti-TNF-alpha therapy after failure of conventional treatment methods. Objective. To describe an unusual manifestation and treatment of a rare disease. Summary of Background Data. CRMO is a rare inflammatory bone disease that should be differentiated from bacterial osteomyelitis. Rarely, it can affect the spine and in this case the most important differential diagnosis is infectious spondylodiscitis. The disease has an unpredictable course with exacerbations and spontaneous remissions. Although the majority of cases remit spontaneously (or after the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs]), some progressive and resistant cases have been reported. Methods. We describe a case of CRMO with an unusual clinical presentation emphasizing the importance of this finding as a differential diagnosis of spondylodiscitis and comment on the available treatment alternatives. Results. A 17-year-old man presented with debilitating dorsal spine pain. Magnetic resonance imaging of the spine revealed bone lesions at multiple vertebral levels. After failure of antibiotic treatment, the diagnosis of CRMO was suggested. An initial good response to NSAIDs was followed by a recurrent course and involvement of peripheral joints besides the use of corticosteroids and other drugs. The introduction of infliximab was followed by complete remission of the disease. Conclusion. Our observation highlights the need of awareness for the differential diagnosis in suspected cases of osteomyelitis not responding to antibiotics. Anti-TNF-alpha agents should be considered in CRMO refractory cases.
Resumo:
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic inflammatory autoimmune disease causing significant social, medical, and economic impact. Several therapeutic regimens are available within the medical arsenal. The rational and reasoned use of various medications approved for their treatment is imperative. This study aimed to evaluate how Brazilian rheumatologists use the drugs available to combat the disease. For this, 128 Brazilian rheumatologists from public and private health services responded to an 18-item questionnaire, sent over the Internet, about different situations of drug treatment of RA. The answers helped to confirm the trends among Brazilian rheumatologists in the drug treatment of RA. The study results have shown that most Brazilian rheumatologists follow the guidelines and consensus established by the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology for the treatment of RA. A small proportion, however, start the biologic therapy in early stages of the disease, including the very early stage, as the first treatment option. Most experts use corticosteroids in low doses early in the treatment. Conclusions: This study confirms that the majority but not all Brazilian rheumatologists follow, in their daily practice, established guidelines and consensus for the treatment of RA. However, it also shows that some few rheumatologists start with anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy in very early arthritis independently of disease severity or prognostic factors.