The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

A neural networks study of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

This work investigates neural network models for predicting the trypanocidal activity of 28 quinone compounds. Artificial neural networks (ANN), such as multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and Kohonen models, were employed with the aim of modeling the nonlinear relationship between quantum and molecular descriptors and trypanocidal activity. The calculated descriptors and the principal components were used as input to train neural network models to verify the behavior of the nets. The best model for both network models (MLP and Kohonen) was obtained with four descriptors as input. The descriptors were T(5) (torsion angle), QTS1 (sum of absolute values of the atomic charges), VOLS2 (volume of the substituent at region B) and HOMO-1 (energy of the molecular orbital below HOMO). These descriptors provide information on the kind of interaction that occurs between the compounds and the biological receptor. Both neural network models used here can predict the trypanocidal activity of the quinone compounds with good agreement, with low errors in the testing set and a high correctness rate. Thanks to the nonlinear model obtained from the neural network models, we can conclude that electronic and structural properties are important factors in the interaction between quinone compounds that exhibit trypanocidal activity and their biological receptors. The final ANN models should be useful in the design of novel trypanocidal quinones having improved potency.

Central chemoreceptors and neural mechanisms of cardiorespiratory control

The arterial partial pressure (P CO2) of carbon dioxide is virtually constant because of the close match between the metabolic production of this gas and its excretion via breathing. Blood gas homeostasis does not rely solely on changes in lung ventilation, but also to a considerable extent on circulatory adjustments that regulate the transport of CO2 from its sites of production to the lungs. The neural mechanisms that coordinate circulatory and ventilatory changes to achieve blood gas homeostasis are the subject of this review. Emphasis will be placed on the control of sympathetic outflow by central chemoreceptors. High levels of CO2 exert an excitatory effect on sympathetic outflow that is mediated by specialized chemoreceptors such as the neurons located in the retrotrapezoid region. In addition, high CO2 causes an aversive awareness in conscious animals, activating wake-promoting pathways such as the noradrenergic neurons. These neuronal groups, which may also be directly activated by brain acidification, have projections that contribute to the CO2-induced rise in breathing and sympathetic outflow. However, since the level of activity of the retrotrapezoid nucleus is regulated by converging inputs from wake-promoting systems, behavior-specific inputs from higher centers and by chemical drive, the main focus of the present manuscript is to review the contribution of central chemoreceptors to the control of autonomic and respiratory mechanisms.

Evaluation of flow patterns and elongated bubble characteristics during the flow boiling of halocarbon refrigerants in a micro-scale channel

In the present study, quasi-diabatic two-phase flow pattern visualizations and measurements of elongated bubble velocity, frequency and length were performed. The tests were run for R134a and R245fa evaporating in a stainless steel tube with diameter of 2.32 mm, mass velocities ranging from 50 to 600 kg/m(2) s and saturation temperatures of 22 degrees C, 31 degrees C and 41 degrees C. The tube was heated by applying a direct DC current to its surface. Images from a high-speed video-camera (8000 frames/s) obtained through a transparent tube just downstream the heated sections were used to identify the following flow patterns: bubbly, elongated bubbles, churn and annular flows. The visualized flow patterns were compared against the predictions provided by Barnea et al. (1983) [1], Felcar et al. (2007) [10], Revellin and Thome (2007) [3] and Ong and Thome (2009) [11]. From this comparison, it was found that the methods proposed by Felcar et al. (2007) [10] and Ong and Thome (2009) [1] predicted relatively well the present database. Additionally, elongated bubble velocities, frequencies and lengths were determined based on the analysis of high-speed videos. Results suggested that the elongated bubble velocity depends on mass velocity, vapor quality and saturation temperature. The bubble velocity increases with increasing mass velocity and vapor quality and decreases with increasing saturation temperature. Additionally, bubble velocity was correlated as linear functions of the two-phase superficial velocity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation of a Control Loop Experiment in a Network-Based Control System With LonWorks Technology and IP Networks

Considering the increasing popularity of network-based control systems and the huge adoption of IP networks (such as the Internet), this paper studies the influence of network quality of service (QoS) parameters over quality of control parameters. An example of a control loop is implemented using two LonWorks networks (CEA-709.1) interconnected by an emulated IP network, in which important QoS parameters such as delay and delay jitter can be completely controlled. Mathematical definitions are provided according to the literature, and the results of the network-based control loop experiment are presented and discussed.

Mapping the Contemporary Studies on Alliances and Strategic Networks

The competition among the companies depends on the velocity and efficience they can create and commercialize knowledge in a timely and cost-efficient manner. In this context, collaboration emerges as a reaction to the environmental changes. Although strategic alliances and networks have been exploited in the strategic literature for decades, the complexity and continuous usage of these cooperation structures, in a world of growing competition, justify the continuous interest in both themes. This article presents a scanning of the contemporary academic production in strategic alliances and networks, covering the period from January 1997 to august 2007, based on the top five journals accordingly to the journal of Citation Report 2006 in the business and management categories simultaneously. The results point to a retraction in publications about strategic alliances and a significant growth in the area of strategic. networks. The joint view of strategic alliances and networks, cited by some authors a the evolutionary path of study, still did not appear salient. The most cited topics found in the alliance literature are the governance structure, cooperation, knowledge transfer, culture, control, trust, alliance formation,,previous experience, resources, competition and partner selection. The theme network focuses mainly on structure, knowledge transfer and social network, while the joint vision is highly concentrated in: the subjects of alliance formation and the governance choice.

Bleeding patterns and menstrual-related symptoms with the continuous use of a contraceptive combination of ethinylestradiol and drospirenone: a randomized study

Background: The objective of this study was to compare bleeding patterns of women using a contraceptive combination of 30 mcg ethinylestradiol (EE) and 3 mg drospirenone (DRSP) continuously or cyclically. Menstrual-related symptoms were also evaluated. Study Design: This open, prospective, randomized study evaluated 78 women using the EE/DRSP combination continuously for 168 days or for six 28-day cycles, each followed by a 7-day hormone-free interval. A diary with pre-established scales was used to assess the frequency and intensity of bleeding and menstrual-related symptoms. Results: Amenorrhea increased with continuous use; 62.2% of women with continuous use were amenorrheic at the end of treatment (95% CI: 46.6-77.8%). Dysmenorrhea, headache, acne, nausea, edema and increased appetite improved significantly in the continuous-use group, and mastalgia and edema in the cyclic-use group (p<.05). Six subjects in the continuous-use group (15.4%) and three in the cyclic-use group (7.7%) discontinued due to adverse events. Conclusions: Continuous use was associated with amenorrhea and fewer menstrual-related symptoms compared to cyclic use. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Serological patterns and temporal trends of HTLV-1/2 infection in high-risk populations attending public health units in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil has been problematic due a high proportion of seroindeterminate results. Objectives: To confirm and extend previous findings regarding HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in this geographic area. Study design: Sera from 2312 patients were tested for HTLV-1/2 antibodies using enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and Western blot (WB) analysis. Patients were from AIDS Reference Centers (Group 1; 1393 patients) and HTLV out-patient clinics (Group 11; 919 patients). Results were analyzed according to patients` age, gender, and clinic type. Results: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 were detected in both groups. Among seropositive females, HTLV-2 was slightly more common in Group 1 (54.5%), while HTLV-1 prevailed in Group II (73.9%). Males from Group II had a higher percentage of HTLV-seroindeterminate results. No correlation between HTLV serological results and age was detected. Temporal analyses disclosed a high number of HTLV-seroindeterminate samples, and a large spectrum of indeterminate WB profiles. GD21 and/or rgp46-II bands were detected in 34.6% of sera from Group 1, and a p24 or p19 band was detected in 35.3% of sera from Group II. Conclusions: High rates of HTLV-indeterminate serological patterns during temporal analyses were confirmed in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dietary patterns and nutritional adequacy in a Mediterranean country

Dietary patterns have been related to health outcomes and morbi-mortality. Mediterranean diet indexes are correlated With adequate nutrient intake. The objective of the present study was to analyse the adequacy of nutrient intake of a posteriori defined Mediterranean (MDP) and Western (WDP) diet patterns in the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) cohort. A sample of 17 197 subjects participated in the study. Participants completed I 136-item validated semi-quantitative FFQ. Principal component analysis was used to define dietary patterns. Individuals were classified according to quintiles of adherence based on dietary pattern scores. Non-dietary variables, such as smoking and physical activity habits, were also taken into account. The probability approach was used to assess nutrient intake adequacy of certain vitamins (vitamins B(12), B(6), B(3), B(2), B(1), A, C, D and E) and minerals (Na, Zn, iodine, Se, folic acid, P, Mg, K, Fe and Ca). Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the adequacy of nutrient intake according to adherence to dietary patterns. WDP and MDP were defined. A higher quintile of adherence to an MDP was associated to I lower prevalence of inadequacy for the intake of Zn, iodine, vitamin E, Mg, Fe, vitamin B I, vitamin A, Se, vitamin C and folic acid. The adjusted OR for not reaching at least six (or at leas( ten) nutrient recommendations were 0.09 (95% Cl: 0.07, 0.11) (and 0.02 (95% Cl: 0.00, 0.16)) for the upper quintile of MDP and 4.4 (95% Cl: 3.6, 5.5) and 2.5 (95 % Cl: 1.1, 5.4) for the WDP. The MDP was associated to a better profile of nutrient intake.

Effects of adding polyclonal antibody preparations on ruminal fermentation patterns and digestibility of cows fed different energy sources

Nine ruminally cannulated cows fed different energy sources were used to evaluate an avian-derived polyclonal antibody preparation (PAP-MV) against the specific ruminal bacteria Streptococcus bovis, Fusobacterium necrophorum, Clostridium aminophilum, Peptostreptococcus anaerobius, and Clostridium stick-landii and monensin (MON) on ruminal fermentation patterns and in vivo digestibility. The experimental design was three 3 x 3 Latin squares distinguished by the main energy source in the diet [dry-ground corn grain (CG), high-moisture corn silage (HMCS), or citrus pulp (CiPu)]. Inside each Latin square, animals received one of the feed additives per period [none (CON), MON, or PAP-MV]. Dry matter intake and ruminal fermentation variables such as pH, total short-chain fatty acids (tSCFA), which included acetate, propionate, and butyrate, as well as lactic acid and NH(3)-N concentration were analyzed in this trial. Total tract DM apparent digestibility and its fractions were estimated using chromic oxide as an external marker. Each experimental period lasted 21 d. Ruminal fluid sampling was carried out on the last day of the period at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 h after the morning meal. Ruminal pH was higher (P = 0.006) 4 h postfeeding in MON and PAP-MV groups when compared with CON. Acetate: propionate ratio was greater in PAP-MV compared with MON across sampling times. Polyclonal antibodies did not alter (P > 0.05) tSCFA, molar proportion of acetate and butyrate, or lactic acid and NH(3)-N concentration. Ruminal pH was higher (P = 0.01), 4 h postfeeding in CiPu diets compared with CG and HMCS. There was no interaction between feed additive and energy source (P > 0.05) for any of the digestibility coefficients analyzed. Starch digestibility was less (P = 0.008) in PAP-MV when compared with CON and MON. In relation to energy sources, NDF digestibility was greater (P = 0.007) in CG and CiPu vs. the HMCS diet. The digestibility of ADF was greater (P = 0.002) in CiPu diets followed by CG and HMCS. Feeding PAP-MV or monensin altered ruminal fermentation patterns and digestive function in cows; however, those changes were independent of the main energy source of the diet.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma: status of tight junction claudins in the different histopathological patterns and relationship with clinical parameters. A tissue-microarray-based study of 136 cases

Aims Claudins are integral transmembrane proteins of the tight junctions, critical for maintaining cell adhesion and polarity. Alterations in the expression of individual claudins have been detected in carcinomas and appear to correlate with tumour progression. Methods In this study, a panel of anti-claudin antibodies (anti-claudins 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7) was employed to map claudin expression in 136 cases of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) organised in a tissue microarray. Results Claudins were expressed in a reticular pattern up to the prickle layer in normal mucosal epithelium. In OSCC, claudins were strongly present in well-differentiated tumours, they presented mild and low expression in moderately differentiated OSCC, and were negative in poorly differentiated OSCC; the absences of claudin 1 (p = 0.002) and claudin 4 (p<0.001) were associated with moderately/poorly differentiated tumours. Strong expression of claudin 4 was associated with decreased perineural infiltration (p = 0.024). Claudins 5 and 7 were mostly negative or weakly expressed in all cases studied. Expression of claudin 7 was associated with the early clinical stages of the disease, whereas loss of claudin 7 tended to be more frequent in advanced stages of OSCC (p = 0.054). Absence of claudin 7 was also associated with absent vascular infiltration (p = 0.045) and with presence of recurrence (p = 0.052). Conclusions Claudin expression patterns showed a strong correlation with histological type of OSCC; claudin expression was decreased in areas of invasion, and negative in poorly differentiated tumours. This pattern may be related to evolution and prognosis of these tumours, especially in the case of claudin 7, which seems to be associated with a poor prognosis in OSCC.

Temporal Diversity Patterns and Phenology in Fruit-feeding Butterflies in the Atlantic Forest

The Atlantic Forest deserves special attention due to its high level of species endemism and degree of threat. As in other tropical biomes, there is little information about the ecology of the organisms that occur there. The objectives of this study were to verify how fruit-feeding butterflies are distributed through time, and the relation with meteorological conditions. Species richness and Shannon index were partitioned additively at the monthly level, and beta diversity, used as a hierarchical measure of temporal species turnover, was calculated among months, trimesters, and semesters. Circular analysis was used to verify how butterflies are distributed along seasons and its relation with meteorological conditions. We sampled 6488 individuals of 73 species. Temporal diversity of butterflies was more grouped than expected by chance among the months of each trimester. Circular analyses revealed that diversity is concentrated in hot months (September-March), with the subfamily Brassolinae strongly concentrated in February-March. Average temperature was correlated with total abundance of butterflies, abundance of Biblidinae, Brassolinae and Morphinae, and richness of Satyrinae. The present results show that 3mo of sampling between September and March is enough to produce a nonbiased sample of the local assemblage of butterflies, containing at least 70 percent of the richness and 25 percent of abundance. The influence of temperature on sampling is probably related to butterfly physiology. Moreover, temperature affects resource availability for larvae and adults, which is higher in hot months. The difference in seasonality patterns among subfamilies is probably a consequence of different evolutionary pressures through time.

The Evolution of Modularity in the Mammalian Skull I: Morphological Integration Patterns and Magnitudes

Morphological integration refers to the modular structuring of inter-trait relationships in an organism, which could bias the direction and rate of morphological change, either constraining or facilitating evolution along certain dimensions of the morphospace. Therefore, the description of patterns and magnitudes of morphological integration and the analysis of their evolutionary consequences are central to understand the evolution of complex traits. Here we analyze morphological integration in the skull of several mammalian orders, addressing the following questions: are there common patterns of inter-trait relationships? Are these patterns compatible with hypotheses based on shared development and function? Do morphological integration patterns and magnitudes vary in the same way across groups? We digitized more than 3,500 specimens spanning 15 mammalian orders, estimated the correspondent pooled within-group correlation and variance/covariance matrices for 35 skull traits and compared those matrices among the orders. We also compared observed patterns of integration to theoretical expectations based on common development and function. Our results point to a largely shared pattern of inter-trait correlations, implying that mammalian skull diversity has been produced upon a common covariance structure that remained similar for at least 65 million years. Comparisons with a rodent genetic variance/covariance matrix suggest that this broad similarity extends also to the genetic factors underlying phenotypic variation. In contrast to the relative constancy of inter-trait correlation/covariance patterns, magnitudes varied markedly across groups. Several morphological modules hypothesized from shared development and function were detected in the mammalian taxa studied. Our data provide evidence that mammalian skull evolution can be viewed as a history of inter-module parcellation, with the modules themselves being more clearly marked in those lineages with lower overall magnitude of integration. The implication of these findings is that the main evolutionary trend in the mammalian skull was one of decreasing the constraints to evolution by promoting a more modular architecture.

Samba, a Xenopus hnRNP Expressed in Neural and Neural Crest Tissues

RNA binding proteins regulate gene expression at the posttranscriptional level and play important roles in embryonic development. Here, we report the cloning and expression of Samba, a Xenopus hnRNP that is maternally expressed and persists at least until tail bud stages. During gastrula stages, Samba is enriched in the dorsal regions. Subsequently, its expression is elevated only in neural and neural crest tissues. In the latter, Samba expression overlaps with that of Slug in migratory neural crest cells. Thereafter, Samba is maintained in the neural crest derivatives, as well as other neural tissues, including the anterior and posterior neural tube and the eyes. Overexpression of Samba in the animal pole leads to defects in neural crest migration and cranial cartilage development. Thus, Samba encodes a Xenopus hnRNP that is expressed early in neural and neural crest derivatives and may regulate crest cells migratory behavior. Developmental Dynamics 238:204-209, 2009. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Cross-situational learning of object-word mapping using Neural Modeling Fields

The issue of how children learn the meaning of words is fundamental to developmental psychology. The recent attempts to develop or evolve efficient communication protocols among interacting robots or Virtual agents have brought that issue to a central place in more applied research fields, such as computational linguistics and neural networks, as well. An attractive approach to learning an object-word mapping is the so-called cross-situational learning. This learning scenario is based on the intuitive notion that a learner can determine the meaning of a word by finding something in common across all observed uses of that word. Here we show how the deterministic Neural Modeling Fields (NMF) categorization mechanism can be used by the learner as an efficient algorithm to infer the correct object-word mapping. To achieve that we first reduce the original on-line learning problem to a batch learning problem where the inputs to the NMF mechanism are all possible object-word associations that Could be inferred from the cross-situational learning scenario. Since many of those associations are incorrect, they are considered as clutter or noise and discarded automatically by a clutter detector model included in our NMF implementation. With these two key ingredients - batch learning and clutter detection - the NMF mechanism was capable to infer perfectly the correct object-word mapping. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.