Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Three-phase harmonic distortion state estimation algorithm based on evolutionary strategies

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate unbalanced harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The problem solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power quality meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology GPS devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow, what makes the overall power quality monitoring system much less costly. The ES based harmonic estimation model is applied to a 14 bus network to compare its performance to a conventional Monte Carlo approach. It is also applied to a 50 bus subtransmission network in order to compare the three-phase and single-phase approaches as well as the robustness of the proposed method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Safety of a railway wheelset - derailment simulation with increasing lateral force

The motivation for this research is to make a comparison between dynamic results of a free railway wheelset derailment and safety limits. For this purpose, a numerical simulation of a wheelset derailment submitted to increasing lateral force is used to compare with the safety limit, using different criteria. A simplified wheelset model is used to simulate derailments with different adhesion conditions. The contact force components, including the longitudinal and spin effects, are identified in a steady-state condition on the verge of a derailment. The contact force ratios are used in a three-dimensional (3D) analytical formula to calculate the safety limits. Simulation results obtained with two contact methods were compared with the published results and the safety limit was identified with the two criteria. Results confirm Nadal`s conservative aspect and show that safety 3D analytical formula presents slightly higher safety limits for lower friction coefficients and smaller limits for high friction, in comparison with the simulation results with Fastsim.

Modeling of functionally graded piezoelectric ultrasonic transducers

The application of functionally graded material (FGM) concept to piezoelectric transducers allows the design of composite transducers without interfaces, due to the continuous change of property values. Thus, large improvements can be achieved, as reduction of stress concentration, increasing of bonding strength, and bandwidth. This work proposes to design and to model FGM piezoelectric transducers and to compare their performance with non-FGM ones. Analytical and finite element (FE) modeling of FGM piezoelectric transducers radiating a plane pressure wave in fluid medium are developed and their results are compared. The ANSYS software is used for the FE modeling. The analytical model is based on FGM-equivalent acoustic transmission-line model, which is implemented using MATLAB software. Two cases are considered: (i) the transducer emits a pressure wave in water and it is composed of a graded piezoceramic disk, and backing and matching layers made of homogeneous materials; (ii) the transducer has no backing and matching layer; in this case, no external load is simulated. Time and frequency pressure responses are obtained through a transient analysis. The material properties are graded along thickness direction. Linear and exponential gradation functions are implemented to illustrate the influence of gradation on the transducer pressure response, electrical impedance, and resonance frequencies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Montmorillonite as a component of polysulfone nanocomposite membranes

Nanocomposite membranes containing polysulfone (PSI) and sodium montmorillonite from Wyoming (MMT) were prepared by a combination of solution dispersion and the immersion step of the wet-phase inversion method. The purpose was to study the MMT addition with contents of 0.5 and 3.0 mass% MMT in the preparation of nanocomposite membranes by means of morphology, thermal, mechanical and hydrophilic properties of nanocomposite membranes and to compare these properties to the pure PSf membrane ones. Small-angle X-ray diffraction patterns revealed the formation of intercalated clay mineral layers in the PSf matrix and TEM images also presented an exfoliated structure. A good dispersion of the clay mineral particles was detected by SEM images. Tensile tests showed that both elongation at break and tensile strength of the nanocomposites were improved in comparison to the pristine PSf. The thermal stability of the nanocomposite membranes, evaluated by onset and final temperatures of degradation, was also enhanced. The hydrophilicity of the nanocomposite membranes, determined by water contact angle measurements, was higher; therefore, the MMT addition was useful to produce more hydrophilic membranes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantification of Clay Dispersion in Nanocomposites of Styrenic Polymers

Polymer-clay nanocomposites are materials with many interesting structures, properties, and potential applications. Microstructural evaluation of a nanocomposite is not an easy task, as clay may form hierarchical structures which may look different when observed at various magnifications under a microscope, and also as the concepts of ""intercalation"" and ""exfoliation"" are not self-sufficient to describe its morphology. In this work polymer-clay nanocomposites of polystyrene and two styrene-containing block copolymers (styrene-butadiene-styrene and styrene-ethylene/butylene-styrene) were prepared using three different techniques. Clay dispersion was evaluated by a recently developed microscopy image analysis procedure, combining the analysis of optical and transmission electron micrographs, and the characterization was complemented by X-ray diffraction and rheological measurements. The results showed better clay dispersion for both block copolymers nanocomposites, mainly due to their molecular architectures. Moreover, the techniques which showed the best results involved mixing the materials in a solvent medium. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 50:257-267, 2010. (C) 2009 Society of Plastics Engineers

Investigation of the residence time distribution in a plate heat exchanger with series and parallel arrangements using a non-ideal tracer detection technique

The objective was to study the flow pattern in a plate heat exchanger (PHE) through residence time distribution (RTD) experiments. The tested PHE had flat plates and it was part of a laboratory scale pasteurization unit. Series flow and parallel flow configurations were tested with a variable number of passes and channels per pass. Owing to the small scale of the equipment and the short residence times, it was necessary to take into account the influence of the tracer detection unit on the RID data. Four theoretical RID models were adjusted: combined, series combined, generalized convection and axial dispersion. The combined model provided the best fit and it was useful to quantify the active and dead space volumes of the PHE and their dependence on its configuration. Results suggest that the axial dispersion model would present good results for a larger number of passes because of the turbulence associated with the changes of pass. This type of study can be useful to compare the hydraulic performance of different plates or to provide data for the evaluation of heat-induced changes that occur in the processing of heat-sensitive products. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control charts for individual observations of a bivariate Poisson process

In this paper, three single-control charts are proposed to monitor individual observations of a bivariate Poisson process. The specified false-alarm risk, their control limits, and ARLs were determined to compare their performances for different types and sizes of shifts. In most of the cases, the single charts presented better performance rather than two separate control charts ( one for each quality characteristic). A numerical example illustrates the proposed control charts.

Ciratefi: An RST-invariant template matching with extension to color images

Template matching is a technique widely used for finding patterns in digital images. A good template matching should be able to detect template instances that have undergone geometric transformations. In this paper, we proposed a grayscale template matching algorithm named Ciratefi, invariant to rotation, scale, translation, brightness and contrast and its extension to color images. We introduce CSSIM (color structural similarity) for comparing the similarity of two color image patches and use it in our algorithm. We also describe a scheme to determine automatically the appropriate parameters of our algorithm and use pyramidal structure to improve the scale invariance. We conducted several experiments to compare grayscale and color Ciratefis with SIFT, C-color-SIFT and EasyMatch algorithms in many different situations. The results attest that grayscale and color Ciratefis are more accurate than the compared algorithms and that color-Ciratefi outperforms grayscale Ciratefi most of the time. However, Ciratefi is slower than the other algorithms.

Improved effective charge density in MOS capacitors with PECVD SiOxNy dielectric layer obtained at low RF power

In this work SiOxNy films are produced and characterized. Series of samples were deposited by the plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) technique at low temperatures from silane (SiH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and helium (He) precursor gaseous mixtures, at different deposition power in order to analyze the effect of this parameter on the films structural properties, on the SiOxNy/Si interface quality and on the SiOxNy effective charge density. In order to compare the film structural properties with the interface (SiOxNy/Si) quality and effective charge density, MOS capacitors were fabricated using these films as dielectric layer. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES), at the Si-K edge, was utilized to investigate the structure of the films and the material bonding characteristics were analyzed through Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The MOS capacitors were characterized by low and high frequency capacitance (C-V) measurements, in order to obtain the interface state density (D-it) and the effective charge density (N-ss). An effective charge density linear reduction for decreasing deposition power was observed, result that is attributed to the smaller amount of ions present in the plasma for low RF power. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the heat treatment on the nucleation of silver nanoparticles in Tm(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) glasses

Nucleation of silver nanoparticles (NPs) in Tm(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) (PGO) glass is reported. The influence of the heat treatment on the nucleation of silver NPs is studied by means of transmission electron microscopy and optical spectroscopy. Two heat treatment procedures were applied in order to compare their performance. Observation of infrared-to-visible frequency upconversion (UC) luminescence of Tm(3+) ions is reported and correlated with the heat-treatment procedure. Enhancement of the UC emission for samples heat treated during various time intervals is attributed to the increased local field in the vicinity of the NPs. Quenching of the UC signal was also observed and correlated with the growth of NPs amount and size.

Morphological alterations in leave of micropropagated pineapple plants cv. IAC Gomo-de-mel acclimatizated in different conditions of luminosity

(Morphological alterations in leave of micropropagated pineapple plants cv. IAC Gomo-de-mel acclimatizated in different conditions of luminosity). Microprapagated plants usually show difficulties to adapt to ex vitro conditions, and many times are submitted to the rustication process to aim the reduction of all the impacts resulting from the environmental changes. Once the leaf and its annexes are important indicators of adaptability strategies of the plants to adverse environmental conditions, the objective of this work was to compare the leaf anatomy of pineapple cv. IAC Gomo-de-mel in vitro cultivated plants with microplants acclimatized in different conditions of luminosity, under mesh, with 50% of shading and directly exposed to sunlight, to verify the needed of rustication process on this cultivar. Evaluations of the leaf epidermis using light and electronic scanning microscopy showed an increase on scale density in both leaves surfaces of the ex vitro microplants, mainly related to the ones directly exposed to sunlight. Subsequent observations showed an increase on cuticle thickness, on wavy contours of epidermal cells, and on the distribution and quantity of mesophyll fibers, evidencing the light conditions interference in morphological characteristics of these microplants. These alterations had not harmed microplant development, showing that are not need of rustication stages on the acclimatization process of this cultivar.

Residuals for log-Burr XII regression models in survival analysis

In this paper, we compare three residuals to assess departures from the error assumptions as well as to detect outlying observations in log-Burr XII regression models with censored observations. These residuals can also be used for the log-logistic regression model, which is a special case of the log-Burr XII regression model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to the modified martingale-type residual in log-Burr XII regression models with censored data.

Spatio-temporal variability behavior of land surface soil water content in shrub- and grass-land

The knowledge of the relationship between spatial variability of the surface soil water content (theta) and its mean across a spatial domain (theta(m)) is crucial for hydrological modeling and understanding soil water dynamics at different scales. With the aim to compare the soil moisture dynamics and variability between the two land uses and to explore the relationship between the spatial variability of theta and theta(m), this study analyzed sets of surface theta measurements performed with an impedance soil moisture probe, collected 136 times during a period of one year in two transects covering different land uses, i.e., korshinsk peashrub transect (KPT) and bunge needlegrass transect (BNT), in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Results showed that the temporal pattern of theta behaved similarly for the two land uses, with both relative wetter soils during wet period and relative drier soils during dry period recognized in BNT. Soil moisture tended to be temporally stable among different dates, and more stable patterns could be observed for dates with more similar soil water conditions. The magnitude of the spatial variation of theta in KPT was greater than that in ENT. For both land uses, the standard deviation (SD) of theta in general increased as theta(m) increased, a behavior that could be well described with a natural logarithmic function. Convex relationship of CV and theta(m) and the maximum CV for both land uses (43.5% in KPT and 41.0% in BNT) can, therefore, be ascertained. Geostatistical analysis showed that the range in KPT (9.1 m) was shorter than that in BNT (15.1 m). The nugget effects, the structured variability, hence the total variability increased as theta(m) increased. For both land uses, the spatial dependency in general increased with increasing theta(m). 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.