Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bacterial communities and biogeochemical transformations of iron and sulfur in a high saltmarsh soil profile

Microbial community structure in saltmarsh soils is stratified by depth and availability of electron acceptors for respiration. However, the majority of the microbial species that are involved in the biogeochemical transformations of iron (Fe) and sulfur (S) in such environments are not known. Here we examined the structure of bacterial communities in a high saltmarsh soil profile and discuss their potential relationship with the geochemistry of Fe and S. Our data showed that the soil horizons Ag (oxic-suboxic), Bg (suboxic), Cri (anoxic with low concentration of pyrite Fe) and Cr-2 (anoxic with high concentrations of pyrite Fe) have distinct geochemical and microbiological characteristics. In general, total S concentration increased with depth and was correlated with the presence of pyrite Fe. Soluble + exchangable-Fe, pyrite Fe and acid volatile sulfide Fe concentrations also increased with depth, whereas ascorbate extractable-Fe concentrations decreased. The occurrence of reduced forms of Fe in the horizon Ag and oxidized Fe in horizon Cr-2 suggests that the typical redox zonation, common to several marine sediments, does not occur in the saltmarsh soil profile studied. Overall, the bacterial community structure in the horizon Ag and Cr-2 shared low levels of similarity, as compared to their adjacent horizons, Bg and Cr-1, respectively. The phylogenetic analyses of bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences from clone libraries showed that the predominant phylotypes in horizon Ag were related to Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. In contrast, the most abundant phylotypes in horizon Cr-2 were related to Deltaproteo-bacteria, Chloroflexi, Deferribacteres and Nitrospira. The high frequency of sequences with low levels of similarity to known bacterial species in horizons Ag and Cr-2 indicates that the bacterial communities in both horizons are dominated by novel bacterial species. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heteroplasmy in Hair: Study of Mitochondrial DNA Third Hypervariable Region in Hair and Blood Samples

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) analysis has proved useful for forensic identification especially in cases where nuclear DNA is not available, such as with hair evidence. Heteroplasmy, the presence of more than one type of mtDNA in one individual, is a common situation often reported in the first and second mtDNA hypervariable regions (HV1/HV2), particularly in hair samples. However, there is no data about heteroplasmy frequency in the third mtDNA hypervariable region (HV3). To investigate possible heteroplasmy hotspots, HV3 from hair and blood samples of 100 individuals were sequenced and compared. No point heteroplasmy was observed, but length heteroplasmy was, both in C-stretch and CA repeat. To observe which CA ""alleles"" were present in each tissue, PCR products were cloned and re-sequenced. However, no variation among CA alleles was observed. Regarding forensic practice, we conclude that point heteroplasmy in HV3 is not as frequent as in the HV1/HV2.

Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems and LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee: Food composition activities (2006-2009)

The Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems (BRASILFOODS) has been keeping the Brazilian Food Composition Database-USP (TBCA-USP) (http://www.fcf.usp.br/tabela) since 1998. Besides the constant compilation, analysis and update work in the database, the network tries to innovate through the introduction of food information that may contribute to decrease the risk for non-transmissible chronic diseases, such as the profile of carbohydrates and flavonoids in foods. In 2008, data on carbohydrates, individually analyzed, of 112 foods, and 41 data related to the glycemic response produced by foods widely consumed in the country were included in the TBCA-USP. Data (773) about the different flavonoid subclasses of 197 Brazilian foods were compiled and the quality of each data was evaluated according to the USDAs data quality evaluation system. In 2007, BRASILFOODS/USP and INFOODS/FAO organized the 7th International Food Data Conference ""Food Composition and Biodiversity"". This conference was a unique opportunity for interaction between renowned researchers and participants from several countries and it allowed the discussion of aspects that may improve the food composition area. During the period, the LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee and BRASILFOODS disseminated to Latin America the Form and Manual for Data Compilation, version 2009, ministered a Food Composition Data Compilation course and developed many activities related to data production and compilation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chemoprevention of rat hepatocarcinogenesis with histone deacetylase inhibitors: Efficacy of tributyrin, a butyric acid prodrug

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks in prevalence and mortality among top 10 cancers worldwide. Butyric acid (BA), a member of histone deacetylase inhibitors (HDACi) has been proposed as an anticareinogenic agent. However, its short half-life is a therapeutical limitation. This problem could be circumvented with tributyrin (TB), a proposed BA prodrug. To investigate TB effectiveness for chemoprevention, rats were treated with the compound during initial phases of ""resistant hepatocyte"" model of hepatocarcinogenesis, and cellular and molecular parameters were evaluated. TB inhibited (p < 0.05) development of hepatic preneoplastic lesions (PNL) including persistent ones considered HCC progression sites. TB increased (p < 0.05) PNL remodeling, a process whereby they tend to disappear. TB did not inhibit cell proliferation in PNL, but induced (p < 0.05) apoptosis in remodeling ones. Compared to controls, rats treated with TB presented increased (P < 0.05) hepatic levels of BA indicating its effectiveness as a prodrug. Molecular mechanisms of TB-induced hepatocarcinogenesis chemoprevention were investigated. TB increased (p < 0.05) hepatic nuclear histone H3K9 hyperacetylation specifically in PNL and p21 protein expression, which could be associated with inhibitory HDAC effects. Moreover, it reduced (p < 0.05) the frequency of persistent PNL with aberrant cytoplasmic p53 accumulation, an alteration associated with increased malignancy. Original data observed in our study support the effectiveness of TB as a prodrug of BA and as an HDACi in hepatocarcinogenesis chemoprevention. Besides histone acetylation and p21 restored expression, molecular mechanisms involved with TB anticarcinogenic actions could also be related to modulation of p53 pathways. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Neoplasia and paracoccidioidomycosis

Published studies on the association between cancer and paracoccidioidomycosis consist either isolated cases or clinical data based on hospital cohorts of paracoccidioidomycosis. The frequency of neoplasia in series of >= 80 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis ranges from 0.16 to 14.1%, mean of 3.96%. There are only two retrospective controlled studies, one of them showing greater incidence of carcinoma in biopsy and necropsy samples of paracoccidioidomycosis (12 cases in 147 patients with the mycosis: 8.2%) than in the necropsies of the control group (320 cases in 7,302 necropsies: 4.9%). In the other, 22,409 autopsies were reviewed and 4,372 cases of cancer were found; of the 85 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis, 12 were diagnosed with cancer. No differences were observed in the frequency of malignancies between the group of patients with paracoccidioidomycosis (14.1%) and the control group (19.5%). Considering all the reported cases, carcinoma was more frequent than hematological malignancies, and was more often found at the same site or in a neighboring site affected by the mycosis, usually occurring after the diagnosis of the mycosis. Commonly, the basic cause of death was related to secondary infections or neoplasia. Lymphoma was associated with poorly organized rich in fungi granuloma. The clinical course and mortality were related to the cancer evolution or secondary infections and was worse in lymphoid series, metastatic carcinoma or in patients under cytotoxic chemotherapy. Additionally, as in several cases the clinical and histopathological data may mimick neoplasia, the correct diagnosis of both diseases is essential to guarantee an early and safe intervention.

Evaluation of flow regimes in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed through statistical, mutual information, spectral and Hurst`s analysis

Hydrodynamic studies were conducted in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed column of diameter 150 mm, height 1000 mm, conical base included angle of 60 degrees and inlet orifice diameter 25 mm. Pressure transducers at several axial positions were used to obtain pressure fluctuation time series with 1.2 and 2.4 mm glass beads at U/U-ms from 0.3 to 1.6, and static bed depths from 150 to 600 mm. The conditions covered several flow regimes (fixed bed, incipient spouting, stable spouting, pulsating spouting, slugging, bubble spouting and fluidization). Images of the system dynamics were also acquired through the transparent walls with a digital camera. The data were analyzed via statistical, mutual information theory, spectral and Hurst`s Rescaled Range methods to assess the potential of these methods to characterize the spouting quality. The results indicate that these methods have potential for monitoring spouted bed operation.

IDENTIFICATION OF THE STATE OF A WET SPOUTED BED THROUGH TIME-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PRESSURE FLUCTUATION TIME SERIES

The feasibility of detecting instability in wet spouted beds via pressure fluctuation (PF) time-series analyses was investigated. Experiments were carried out in a cylindrical Plexiglas column of diameter 150 mm with a conical base of internal angle 60 degrees, an inlet orifice diameter of 25 mm and glass beads of diameter 2.4 mm. Transducers at several axial positions measured PF time series with incremental addition of aqueous sucrose solutions of different concentrations. Liquid addition affected the spouted bed dynamics, causing irregular spouting, increased voidage in the annulus, increased fountain height, irregular annulus height, channelling, agglomeration, and adhesion of particles to the column walls. Autocorrelations indicated the appearance of periodicities in the PF signals with increasing sucrose addition. Dominant peaks in power-spectral density developed at low frequencies with changing system dynamics. The results indicate that PF signals furnish relevant information on system dynamics, useful for monitoring and control of spouted bed operations such as particle coating and drying of paste-like materials.

INVESTIGATION OF ACOUSTIC SIGNALS AS A TOOL FOR CHARACTERIZING SPOUTED BED DYNAMICS

The feasibility of characterizing the dynamics of a spouted bed based on acoustic emission (AE) signals is evaluated. Acoustic emission signals were measured in a semi-cylindrical Plexiglas column of diameter 150 mm and height 1000 mm with a conical base of internal angle 60 degrees and 25 mm inlet orifice diameter. Data were obtained for U/U(ms), from 0.3 to 2.0, static bed height from 250 to 500 mm, and glass beads of diameter 1.2 and 2.4 mm. AE signals reflected the effects of particle size and U/U(ms), but in general were insensitive to bed depth, even when there were drastic changes in spouting flow patterns. The results indicate that the AE signals were insensitive to the spouted bed hydrodynamics for the conditions studied. Overall, it appears that the AE analysis is unlikely to be a suitable technique for discriminating spouted bed flow regimes, at least for the range of frequencies and operating conditions investigated.

Cytogenetic biomonitoring of inhabitants of a large uranium mineralization area: the municipalities of Monte Alegre, Prainha, and Alenquer, in the State of Para, Brazil

Uranium is a natural radioactive metallic element; its effect on the organism is cumulative, and chronic exposure to this element can induce carcinogenesis. Three cities of the Amazon region-Monte Alegre, Prainha, and Alenquer-in North Brazil, are located in one of the largest uranium mineralization areas of the world. Radon is a radioactive gas, part of uranium decay series and readily diffuses through rock. In Monte Alegre, most of the houses are built of rocks removed from the Earth`s crust in the forest, where the uranium reserves lie. The objective of the present work is to determine the presence or absence of genotoxicity and risk of carcinogenesis induced by natural exposure to uranium and radon in the populations of these three cities. The frequency of micronuclei (MN) and chromosomal aberrations (CA) showed no statistically significant differences between the control population and the three study populations (P > 0.05). MN was also analyzed using the fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) technique, with a centromere-specific probe. No clastogenic and/or aneugenic effects were found in the populations. Using FISH analysis, other carcinogenesis biomarkers were analyzed, but neither the presence of the IGH/BCL2 translocation nor an amplification of the MYC gene and 22q21 region was detected. Clastogenicity and DNA damage were also not found in the populations analyzed using the alkaline comet assay. The mitotic index showed no cytotoxicity in the analyzed individuals` lymphocytes. Once we do not have data concerning radiation doses from other sources, such as cosmic rays, potassium, thorium, or anthropogenic sources, it is hard to determine if uranium emissions in this geographic region where our study population lives are too low to cause significant DNA damage. Regardless, genetic analyses suggest that the radiation in our study area is not high enough to induce DNA alterations or to interfere with mitotic apparatus formation. It is also possible that damages caused by radiation doses undergo cellular repair.

Fluoride ingestion from food items and dentifrice in 2-6-year-old Brazilian children living in a fluoridated area using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the fluoride intake of 2-6-year-old Brazilian children using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) which also estimated fluoride intake from dentifrice. Methods: The FFQ was previously validated through application to 78 2-6-year-old Brazilian children and then administered to 379 children residing in an optimally fluoridated community in Brazil (Bauru, State of Sao Paulo). The FFQ was applied to the parents and used to estimate the food intake of the children. The constituents of the diet were divided into solids, water and other beverages. The fluoride content of the diet items was analyzed with the fluoride electrode. The questionnaire also estimated fluoride intake from dentifrice. Results: The average (+/- SD) fluoride intake from solids, water, other beverages and dentifrice was 0.008 +/- 0.005; 0.011 +/- 0.004; 0.009 +/- 0.014 and 0.036 +/- 0.028 mg F/kg body weight/day, respectively, totalizing 0.064 +/- 0.035 mg F/kg body weight/day. The dentifrice and the diet contributed with 56.3% and 43.7% of the daily fluoride intake, respectively. Among the children evaluated, 31.2% are estimated to have risk to develop dental fluorosis (intake > 0.07 mg F/kg body weight/day). Conclusions: The dentifrice was the main source of fluoride intake by the children evaluated. However, the fluoride concentration in food items also significantly contributed to the daily ingestion by 2-6-year-old children. The questionnaire used seems to be a promising alternative to duplicate diet to estimate the fluoride intake at this age range and may have potential to be used in broad epidemiological surveys.