245 resultados para state estimation
Resumo:
The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.
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Precision agriculture (PA) technologies are being applied to crops in Brazil, which are important to ensure Brazil`s position in agricultural production. However, there are no studies available at present to indicate the extent to which PA technologies are being used in the country. Therefore, the main objective of this research was to investigate how the sugar-ethanol industry in So Paulo state, which produces 60% of the domestic sugarcane, is adopting and using these techniques. For this purpose, primary data were used, which were obtained from a questionnaire sent to all companies operating in the sugar-ethanol industry in the region. The aim was to determine to what extent these companies are adopting and using PA technologies, and also to promote a more in-depth discussion of the topic within the sugar-ethanol industry. Information was obtained on the features of the companies, on sources of information that they use for adopting these technologies, on their impacts on these companies and on obstacles hindering their adoption. The main conclusions of this research suggest that companies that adopt and use PA practices reap benefits, such as managerial improvements, higher yields, lower costs, minimization of environmental impacts and improvements in sugarcane quality.
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This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.
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The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.
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This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.
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Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.
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The success in the adoption of peach integrated production (IP) was evaluated in small orchards of the Parana State. The importance of specific technical accompaniment; points of strangulating in adoption of technology and the classification of the areas to IP conformity were evaluated. The seasons 2005/2006 (without IP orientation) and 2006/2007 (with IP orientation) were compared considering 20 producers who were oriented monthly to attend the minimum requisites. The incidence of peach rust (Tranzschelia discolor) and of brown rot (Monilinia fructicola) in full bloom was evaluated in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons, as biological parameters to accompany the efficiency of system adoption. After the technical accompaniment in 2007/2008 season, the software APOIA-Novo Rural-PI (APOIA-PI) was applied to measure the conformity to IP in peach orchards. The conformity index of each orchard was compared to the minimum requisite to classify as IP (0.7). The major difficulties in register of field book were: pests monitoring; collect of climate data and the harvest evaluation. The technical accompaniment increased in 60% the conformity in use of field book. In 2007/2008 season, the brown rot incidence increased in some areas, caused by not following IP recommendations. The inadequate management caused the increment in pathogen inoculum, promoting the disease development in peach orchards. The APOIA-PI classified two orchards as good agricultural practices (GAP) (0.7 <= conformity index >= 0.4), two as integrated production (IP) (>= 0.7) and the other orchards had conformity index lower than 0.4.
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Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state Recently the Sao Paulo state government mitigated its citrus canker eradication methodology adopted since 1999. In April 2009 at least 99.8% of commercial sweet orange orchards were free of citrus canker in Sao Paulo state. Consequently the mitigation of the eradication methodology reduced the high level of safety and the competitiveness of the citrus production sector in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Therefore we suggest the re-adoption of the same eradication methodology of citrus canker adopted in Sao Paulo from 1999 to 2009, or the adoption of a new methodology, effective for citrus canker suppression, because in new sample surveys citrus canker was detected in >0.36% of affected orchards. This incidence threshold was calculated by using the Duncan test (P <= 0.05) to compare the yearly sample surveys conducted in Sao Paulo state to estimate citrus canker incidence between 1999 and 2009. The calculated minimum significant level was 0.28% among sample surveys and the lowest citrus canker incidence in Sao Paulo state was 0.08%, occurring in 2001. Thus, as an alternative, we suggest the adoption of a new eradication methodology for citrus canker suppression when a new sample survey detected >0.36% of affected orchards in Sao Paulo state, Brazil.
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Sugarcane yellow leaf syndrome caused serious damage to crops in the Sao Paulo State, Brazil, in the 1990`s. The syndrome was also reported in other countries and investigations into the etiology revealed an association between the disease and virus and/or phytoplasma. The disease is potentially important and occurs endemically in that State, and for this reason the present study was conducted in order to demonstrate the occurrence of phytoplasma in three traditional sugarcane-producing areas, in Sao Paulo State, through molecular detection From naturally infected plants. Symptomatic plants belonging to varieties SP71-6163, SP71-6180 and SP89-1115 were sampled from Piracicaba, Jau and Ribeirao Preto, and total DNA was extracted from foliar tissues. Nested PCR was conducted with primer pairs P1/ Tint-16F2n/R2, and the amplified products were analyzed by electrophoresis on agarose gels. Amplified DNA fragments of 1.2 kb evidenced the presence of phytoplasma in 36% of symptomatic plants and revealed its Occurrence in all sampled regions. The results demonstrated that phytoplasma is associated with the disease and that it is important to keep a safe inspection of nurseries and monitoring plants in the field, as well as to Select Sugarcane genotypes with a good level of resistance in breeding programs.
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The aim of this work was to study the diversity of the fauna of plant-parasitic nematodes in preserved areas of the Amazon forest, Mato Grosso state (MT), and to assess the effect of agricultural land use on plant-parasitic nematode communities. Soil and root samples were collected in each location in the late spring during the rainy season of 2005, in two areas of primary vegetation in Nova Maringa (Northwest) and Guaranta do Norte (North) and two adjacent areas planted with teak trees (Tectona grandis) and pasture (Brachiaria brizantha). Four-teen taxa of plant-parasitic nematodes were identified at species level: Discocriconemella degrissei, D. limitanea, Dolichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus erythrinae, H. pseudorobustus, Meloidogyne exigua, M javanica, Mesocriconema ornata, Paratrichodorus minor, Pratylenchus loosi, P zeae, Rotylenchus caudaphasmidius, Xiphinema ensiculiferum and X luci (for the first report of this in Brazil) and five at genus level (Atalodera sp., Hemicriconemoides sp., Meloidogyne sp., Paratylenchus sp., and Trophotylenchulus sp). These taxa, mainly those from primary vegetation, belong to families with different parasitic behavior, probably due to great plant diversity in the Amazon forest. Comparison between the two preserved areas revealed low index of similarity, as a consequence of the endemic flora in the Amazon forest, and no similarity was observed between preserved native vegetation and adjacent cultivated areas, demonstrating the high influence of agricultural activity on the plant-parasitic nematode communities. There is evidence of recent introduction of plant-parasitic nematodes in these cultivated areas; therefore measures should be taken to prevent the loss of economic sustainability in Amazonian soils. Keywords: abundance, Amazonia, diversity, Brachiaria brizantha, plant-parasitic nematode fauna, Tectona grandis.
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Rubber tree clones present different intensity of symptoms, depending on their age. This is mostly clearly seen in the presence or absence of old leaves with ascopores, corresponding to flows of new and susceptible leaves. The objective of this work was to evaluate the intensity of symptoms of south American leaf blight (SALB) in six rubber tree clones, one and eight years old, in the Vale do Ribeira region, Sao Paulo state. The results Showed that clones FX 3864, RRIM 600, IAN 873 and IAN 717 Suffered more attacks when young, and RRIM 600, IAN 717 and FX 3864 when adult. The clone IAN 873 showed the smallest amounts of disease in the adult phase, due to uniform change in the leaves and a compact flow of new leaves, which happened during a season that was unfavorable to pathogen infection, presenting the phenomenon of avoidance or evasion in time.
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The development of genetic maps for auto-incompatible species, such as the yellow passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims f.flavicarpa Deg.) is restricted due to the unfeasibility of obtaining traditional mapping populations based on inbred lines. For this reason, yellow passion fruit linkage maps were generally constructed using a strategy known as two-way pseudo-testeross, based on monoparental dominant markers segregating in a 1:1 fashion. Due to the lack of information from these markers in one of the parents, two individual (parental) maps were obtained. However, integration of these maps is essential, and biparental markers can be used for such an operation. The objective of our study was to construct an integrated molecular map for a full-sib population of yellow passion fruit combining different loci configuration generated from amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) and microsatellite markers and using a novel approach based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases, specially designed for outcrossing species. Of the total number of loci, approximate to 76%, 21%, 0.7%, and 2.3% did segregate in 1:1, 3:1, 1:2:1, and 1:1:1:1 ratios, respectively. Ten linkage groups (LGs) were established with a logarithm of the odds (LOD) score >= 5.0 assuming a recombination fraction : <= 0.35. On average, 24 markers were assigned per LG, representing a total map length of 1687 cM, with a marker density of 6.9 cM. No markers were placed as accessories on the map as was done with previously constructed individual maps.
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Viroids have been used as ""graft transmissible dwarfing agents"" (GTDA) in several countries, mainly to reduce growth of citrus trees, thus increasing their density in orchards. In the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, plants of the acid lime `Tahiti` are usually grafted with a complex of GTDA, presumably viroids. The aim of the present work was the identification and molecular characterization of the viroids infecting trees of acid lime `Tahiti` displaying ""Quebra galho"" (bark-cracking). Viroids were identified and characterized by biological indexing in `Etrog` citron, Northern-blot hybridization, RT-PCR, cloning and complete sequencing of the RNA genomes. Citrus exocortis viroid (CEVd), Hop stunt viroid (HSVd) and Citrus dwarfing viroid (CDVd) were found in different combinations. Although we have not been able to infer a direct relationship between the agronomical performance and symptom severity with the presence of a specific viroid or viroid combination, the differences in the severity of ""Quebra-galho"" symptoms among different trees is probably associated with the presence (or absence) of CEVd, with its interaction with other viroids perhaps determining the different phenotypes observed in the field.
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In this work, supercritical technology was used to obtain extracts from Ocimum basilicum (sweet basil) with CO(2) and the cosolvent H(2)O at 1, 10, and 20% (w/w). The raw material was obtained from hydroponic cultivation. The extract`s global yield isotherms, chemical compositions, antioxidant activity, and cost of manufacturing were determined. The extraction assays were done for pressures of 10 to 30 MPa at 303 to 323 K. The identification of the compounds present in the extracts was made by GC-MS and ESI-MS. The antioxidant activity of extracts was determined using the coupled reaction of beta-carotene and linolenic acid. At 1% of cosolvent, the largest global yield was obtained at 10 MPa and 303 K (2%, dry basis-d.b.); at 10% of cosolvent the largest global yield was obtained at 10 and 15 MPa (11%, d.b.), and at 20% of cosolvent the largest global yield was detected at 30 MPa and 303 K (24%, d.b.). The main components identified in the extracts were eugenol, germacrene-D, epi-alpha-cadinol, malic acid, tartaric acid, ramnose, caffeic acid, quinic acid, kaempferol, caffeoylquinic acid, and kaempferol 3-O-glucoside. Sweet basil extracts exhibited high antioxidant activity compared to beta-carotene. Three types of SFE extracts from sweet basil were produced, for which the estimated cost of manufacturing (class 5 type) varied from US$ 47.96 to US$ 1,049.58 per kilogram of dry extract.
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The minerals of the clay fraction in estuarine plains are mainly detrital being a mixture of marine and continental sediments, but can also be authigenic. Because of the importance of mangrove ecosystems in tropical estuarine areas and the relatively few existing studies of the mineralogical composition of soils in these environments, the aim of this study was to determine the mineralogical assemblage and identify potential contrasts along the coast of the State of Sao Paulo. Soils from I I mangroves distributed along the coastal plain of the State of Sao Paulo were sampled at depths of 0 to 20 and 60 to 80 cm, and samples of suspended sediments from the Ribeira do Iguape River were collected for analysis. Mineralogical analyses were performed on the clay and silt fractions by x-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy, and fresh soil samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive spectrometry and suspended sediments by XRD. The silt fraction contained quartz, feldspars, gibbsite, kaolinite, illite, and vermiculite, and the clay fraction contained smectite, kaolinite, illite, gibbsite, quartz, and feldspars. Locally, vermiculite, biotite, anatase, halloysite, and goethite may occur because of recent transport of sediments to the system. Pyrite was identified in fresh samples. The allochthonous minerals found either were terrestrial and transported by rivers or had originated from the continental platform by past transgressive events. We suggest that the neoformation of smectite and kaolinite occurs in mangrove soils. Different geomorphological settings along the Sao Paulo coast appear to regulate mineral distribution in mangrove soils.