196 resultados para Percolation probability


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Background We validated a strategy for diagnosis of coronary artery disease ( CAD) and prediction of cardiac events in high-risk renal transplant candidates ( at least one of the following: age >= 50 years, diabetes, cardiovascular disease). Methods A diagnosis and risk assessment strategy was used in 228 renal transplant candidates to validate an algorithm. Patients underwent dipyridamole myocardial stress testing and coronary angiography and were followed up until death, renal transplantation, or cardiac events. Results The prevalence of CAD was 47%. Stress testing did not detect significant CAD in 1/3 of patients. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the stress test for detecting CAD were 70, 74, 69, and 71%, respectively. CAD, defined by angiography, was associated with increased probability of cardiac events [log-rank: 0.001; hazard ratio: 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-2.92]. Diabetes (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.06-2.45) and angiographically defined CAD (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.08-2.78) were the independent predictors of events. Conclusion The results validate our observations in a smaller number of high-risk transplant candidates and indicate that stress testing is not appropriate for the diagnosis of CAD or prediction of cardiac events in this group of patients. Coronary angiography was correlated with events but, because less than 50% of patients had significant disease, it seems premature to recommend the test to all high-risk renal transplant candidates. The results suggest that angiography is necessary in many high-risk renal transplant candidates and that better noninvasive methods are still lacking to identify with precision patients who will benefit from invasive procedures. Coron Artery Dis 21: 164-167 (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

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Organ transplant shortage is a global problem caused by several factors, most of which are related to members of the family, who play it major role in the donation process. Objective. We sought to determine the most determinant features in the donor profile that relate to positive decisions versus refusal of donation. Material and Methods. Fifty-six families who were approached by the Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) from November 2004 to April 2006 agreed to participate in this work. To assess donor profiles, we used it structured interview. Results. Parental involvement directly in decisions about donation lead to significantly less frequent consent (P = .005), young donor age was associated with a reduced probability of donation (P = .002), violent death negatively influenced donation consent, excluding suicide (P = .004). Conclusion. The present study showed violent death, young patient age, and parental donation consent to be the most important factors that make it harder to obtain consent organ donation. When a collateral relative (sibling/uncle) or children were responsible for the donation decision, there was more success of consent.

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Background Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) is one of the most treatment-resistant malignancies. Despite all new therapeutic advances, almost all patients develop resistance to treatment and cure is rarely seen. In the present study, we evaluated the antitumor effect of a bicistronic retrovirus vector encoding both endostatin (ES) and interleukin (IL)-2 using an orthotopic metastatic RCC mouse model. Methods Balb/C-bearing Renca cells were treated with NIH/3T3-LendIRES-IL-2-SN cells. In the survival studies, mice were monitored daily until they died. At the end of the in vivo experiment, serum levels of IL-2 and ES were measured, the lung was weighed, and the number of metastatic nodules, nodule area, tumor vessels and proliferation of tumor-infiltrating Renca cells were determined. Results Inoculation of NIH/3T3-LendIRES-IL-2-SN cells resulted in an increase in ES and IL-2 levels in the treated group (p < 0.05). There was a significant decrease in lung wet weight, lung nodule area and tumor vessels in the treated group compared to the control group (p < 0.001). The proliferation of Renca cells in the bicistronic-treated group was significantly reduced compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the probability of survival was significantly higher for mice submitted to bicistronic therapy (log-rank test, p = 0.0016). Bicistronic therapy caused an increase in the infiltration of CD4, CD4 interferon (IFN)gamma-producing, CD8, CD8 IFN gamma-producing and natural killer (CD49b) cells. Conclusions Retroviral bicistronic gene transfer led to the secretion of functional ES and IL-2 that was sufficiently active to: (i) inhibit tumor angiogenesis and tumor cell proliferation and (ii) increase the infiltration of immune cells (C) Copyright. 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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We investigated whether the administration of IL-2 combined with endostatin gene therapy was able to produce additive or even synergistic immunomodulatory activity in a mouse model of metastatic renal carcinoma. Renca cells were injected into the tail vein of BALB/c mice. After 24 h, the animals were randomly divided into four groups (5 mice/group). One group of mice was the control, the second group received treatment with 100,000 UI of Recombinant IL-2 (Proleukin, Chiron) twice a day, 1 day per week during 2 weeks (IL-2), the third group received treatment with a subcutaneous inoculation of 3.6 x 10(6) endostatin-producing cells, and the fourth group received both therapies (IL-2 + ES). Mice were treated for 2 weeks. In the survival studies, 10 mice/group daily, mice were monitored daily until they died. The presence of metastases led to a twofold increase in endostatin levels. Subcutaneous inoculation of NIH/3T3-LendSN cells resulted in a 2.75 and 2.78-fold increase in endostatin levels in the ES and IL-2 + ES group, respectively. At the end of the study, there was a significant decrease in lung wet weight, lung nodules area, and microvascular area (MVA) in all treated groups compared with the control group (P < 0.001). The significant difference in lung wet weight and lung nodules area between groups IL-2 and IL-2 + ES revealed a synergistic antitumor effect of the combined treatment (P < 0.05). The IL-2 + ES therapy Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the probability of survival was significantly higher for mice treated with the combined therapy (log-rank test, P = 0.0028). Conjugated therapy caused an increase in the infiltration of CD4, CD8 and CD49b lymphocytes. An increase in the amount of CD8 cells (P < 0.01) was observed when animals received both ES and IL-2, suggesting an additive effect of ES over IL-2 treatment. A synergistic effect of ES on the infiltration of CD4 (P < 0.001) and CD49b cells (P < 0.01) was also observed over the effect of IL-2. Here, we show that ES led to an increase in CD4 T helper cells as well as cytotoxic lymphocytes, such as NK cells and CD8 cells, within tumors of IL-2 treated mice. This means that ES plays a role in supporting the actions of T cells.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate retrospectively the midterm and long-term results of percutaneous endovascular treatment of venous outflow obstruction after pediatric liver transplantation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During a 9-year period, 18 children with obstruction of a hepatic vein (HV) or inferior vena cava (IVC) anastomosis underwent percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) with balloon dilation or stent placement in case of PTA failure after liver transplantation. Patients` body weights ranged from 7.7 kg to 42.6 kg (mean, 18.8 kg +/- 9). Potential predictors of patency were compared between balloon dilation and stent placement groups. RESULTS: Forty-two procedures were performed (range, 1-11 per patient; mean, 2). Technical and initial clinical success were achieved in all cases. Major complications included one case of pulmonary artery stent embolization and one case of hemothorax. Three children (25%) with HV obstruction were treated with PTA and nine (75%) were treated with stent placement. Three children with IVC obstruction (75%) were treated with PTA and one (25%) was treated with a stent. There were two children with simultaneous obstruction at the HV and IVC; one was treated with PTA and the other with a stent. Cases of isolated HV stenosis have a higher probability of patency with balloon-expandable stent treatment compared with balloon dilation (P < .05). Follow-up time ranged from 7 days to 9 years (mean, 42 months +/- 31), and the primary assisted patency rate was 100% when stent placement was performed among the first three procedures. CONCLUSIONS: In cases of venous outflow obstruction resulting from HV and/or IVC lesions after pediatric liver transplantation, percutaneous endovascular treatment with balloon dilation or stent placement is a safe and effective alternative treatment that results in long-term patency.

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Liver transplantation increased 1.84-fold from 1988 to 2004. However, the number of patients on the waiting list for a liver increased 2.71-fold, from 553 to 1500. We used a mathematical equation to analyze the potential effect of using ABO-compatible living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) on both our liver transplantation program and the waiting list. We calculated the prevalence distribution of blood groups (O, A, B, and AB) in the population and the probability of having a compatible parent or sibling for LDLT. The incidence of ABO compatibility in the overall population was as follows: A, 0.31; B, 0.133; O, 0.512; and AB, 0.04. The ABO compatibility for parent donors was blood group A, 0.174; B, 0.06; O, 0.152; and AB, 0.03; and for sibling donors was A, 0.121; B, 0.05; O, 0.354; and AB, 0.03. Use of LDLT can reduce the pressure on our liver transplantation waiting list by decreasing its size by at least 16.5% at 20 years after its introduction. Such a program could save an estimated 3600 lives over the same period.

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Background-Endocardial fibrous tissue (FT) deposition is a hallmark of endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF). Echocardiography is a first-line and the standard technique for the diagnosis of this disease. Although late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) allows FT characterization, its role in the diagnosis and prognosis of EMF has not been investigated. Methods and Results-Thirty-six patients (29 women; age, 54 +/- 12 years) with EMF diagnosis after clinical evaluation and comprehensive 2-dimensional Doppler echocardiography underwent cine-CMR for assessing ventricular volumes, ejection fraction and mass, and LGE-CMR for FT characterization and quantification. Indexed FT volume (FT/body surface area) was calculated after planimetry of the 8 to 12 slices obtained in the short-axis view at end-diastole (mL/m(2)). Surgical resection of FT was performed in 16 patients. In all patients, areas of LGE were confined to the endocardium, frequently as a continuous streak from the inflow tract extending to the apex, where it was usually most prominent. There was a relation between increased FT/body surface area and worse New York Heart Association functional class and with increased probability of surgery (P<0.05). The histopathologic examination of resected FT showed typical features of EMF with extensive endocardial fibrous thickening, proliferation of small vessels, and scarce inflammatory infiltrate. In multivariate analysis, the patients with FT/body surface area >19 mL/m(2) had an increased mortality rate, with a relative risk of 10.8. Conclusions-Our study provides evidence that LGE-CMR is useful in the diagnosis and prognosis of EMF through quantification of the typical pattern of FT deposition. (Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. 2011;4:304-311.)

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Purpose: To compare the ability of Subjective assessment of optic nerve head (ONH) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) by general ophthalmologists and by a glaucoma expert with objective measurements by optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT, Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc), confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope (HRT III; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg. Germany), and scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, CA) in discriminating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Methods: Sixty-one glaucomatous and 57 normal eyes or 118 subjects Were included in the study. Three independent general ophthalmologists and I glaucoma expert evaluated ONH stereo-photographs. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each imaging technique and sensitivity at fixed specificity was estimated. Comparisons or areas under these curves (aROCs) and agreement (k) were determined between stereophoto grading and best parameter from each technique. Results: Best parameter from each technique showed larger aROC (Stratus OCT RNFL 0.92; Stratus OCT ONH vertical integrated area = 0.86; Stratus OCT macular thickness = 0.82; GDx enhanced corneal compensation = 0.91, HRT3 global cup-to-disc ratio = 0.83; HRT3 glaucoma probability score numeric area score 0.83) compared with stereophotograph grading by general ophthalmologists (0.80) in separating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Glaucoma expert stereophoto grading provided equal or larger aROC (0.92) than best parameter of each computerized imaging device. Stereophoto evaluated by a glaucoma expert showed better agreement with best parameter of each quantitative imaging technique in classifying eyes either as glaucomatous or normal compared with stereophoto grading by general ophthalmologists, The combination Of Subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists with RNFL objective parameters improved identification of glaucoma patients in a larger proportion than the combination of these objective parameters with Subjective assessment of the optic disc by a glaucoma expert (29.5% vs. 19.7%, respectively). Conclusions: Diagnostic ability of all imaging techniques showed better performance than subjective assessment of the ONH by general ophthalmologists, but not by It glaucoma expert, Objective RNFL measurements may provide improvement in glaucoma detection when combined with subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists or by a glaucoma expert.

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PURPOSE. To evaluate the effect of disease severity and optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracies of optic nerve head (ONH), retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), and macular parameters with RTVue (Optovue, Fremont, CA) spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) in glaucoma. METHODS. 110 eyes of 62 normal subjects and 193 eyes of 136 glaucoma patients from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study underwent ONH, RNFL, and macular imaging with RTVue. Severity of glaucoma was based on visual field index (VFI) values from standard automated perimetry. Optic disc size was based on disc area measurement using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II (Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany). Influence of disease severity and disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of RTVue was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression models. RESULTS. Areas under ROC curve (AUC) of all scanning areas increased (P < 0.05) as disease severity increased. For a VFI value of 99%, indicating early damage, AUCs for rim area, average RNLI thickness, and ganglion cell complex-root mean square were 0.693, 0.799, and 0.779, respectively. For a VFI of 70%, indicating severe damage, corresponding AUCs were 0.828, 0.985, and 0.992, respectively. Optic disc size did not influence the AUCs of any of the SDOCT scanning protocols of RTVue (P > 0.05). Sensitivity of the rim area increased and specificity decreased in large optic discs. CONCLUSIONS. Diagnostic accuracies of RTVue scanning protocols for glaucoma were significantly influenced by disease severity. Sensitivity of the rim area increased in large optic discs at the expense of specificity. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;92:1290-1296) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-5516

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Background Airway bypass is a bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction procedure for emphysema whereby transbronchial passages into the lung are created to release trapped air, supported with paclitaxel-coated stents to ease the mechanics of breathing. The aim of the EASE (Exhale airway stents for emphysema) trial was to evaluate safety and efficacy of airway bypass in people with severe homogeneous emphysema. Methods We undertook a randomised, double-blind, sham-controlled study in 38 specialist respiratory centres worldwide. We recruited 315 patients who had severe hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume [RV] to total lung capacity of >= 0.65). By computer using a random number generator, we randomly allocated participants (in a 2:1 ratio) to either airway bypass (n=208) or sham control (107). We divided investigators into team A (masked), who completed pre-procedure and post-procedure assessments, and team B (unmasked), who only did bronchoscopies without further interaction with patients. Participants were followed up for 12 months. The 6-month co-primary efficacy endpoint required 12% or greater improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) and 1 point or greater decrease in the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score from baseline. The composite primary safety endpoint incorporated five severe adverse events. We did Bayesian analysis to show the posterior probability that airway bypass was superior to sham control (success threshold, 0.965). Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00391612. Findings All recruited patients were included in the analysis. At 6 months, no difference between treatment arms was noted with respect to the co-primary efficacy endpoint (30 of 208 for airway bypass vs 12 of 107 for sham control; posterior probability 0.749, below the Bayesian success threshold of 0.965). The 6-month composite primary safety endpoint was 14.4% (30 of 208) for airway bypass versus 11.2% (12 of 107) for sham control (judged non-inferior, with a posterior probability of 1.00 [Bayesian success threshold >0.95]). Interpretation Although our findings showed safety and transient improvements, no sustainable benefit was recorded with airway bypass in patients with severe homogeneous emphysema.

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Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.

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Context. Although several studies have evaluated the frequency of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in general medicine, few studies have looked at the epidemiology of adverse drug events (ADEs) in oncology. Objectives. We sought to investigate how many hospital admissions in oncology are related to a DDI or an ADR. Methods. All cancer patients admitted to an oncology ward during an eight-month period had their charts retrospectively evaluated for reasons of hospitalization, using a 4-point scale (definitely, probably, possibly, or unlikely associated) to classify admissions by their probability of being associated with either a DDI or an ADR. Results. From September 2007 to May 2008, there were 550 hospital admissions and 458 were eligible. Among unplanned admissions (n = 298), 39 (13.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.4%-17.4%) were considered to be associated with an ADE, 33 (11.0%, 95% CI 7.7%-15.2%) with an ADR, and six (2.0%, 95% CI 0.7%-4.3%) with a DDI. The most common DDIs involved warfarin, captopril, and anti-inflammatory agents, and the most frequent ADR was neutropenic fever post-chemotherapy. Most patients were discharged completely recovered, but two patients died. Conclusion. Approximately one in 10 unplanned hospitalizations of cancer patients is associated with an ADE. Prospective and population-based studies are warranted to evaluate their magnitude in oncology. J Pain Symptom Manage 2011;42:342-353. (C) 2011 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Background. The loss of a child is considered the hardest moment in a parent`s life. Studies addressing length of survival under pediatric palliative care are rare. The aim of this study was to improve a survival prediction model for children in palliative care, as accurate information positively impacts parent and child preparation for palliative care. Procedure. Sixty-five children referred to a pediatric palliative care team were followed from August 2003 until December 2006. Variables investigated (also included in previous studies) were: diagnosis, home care provider, presence of anemia, and performance status score given by the home care provider. Clinical variables such as symptom number were also used to test the score`s ability to pre-validated using the above variables. The number of symptoms at transition to palliative care does not improve the score`s predictive ability. The sum of the single scores gives an overall score for each patient, dividing the population into three groups by probability of 60-day survival: Group A 80.0%, Group B 38.0%, and Group C 28.5% (P < 0.001). Conclusion. A pediatric palliative care score based on easily accessible variables is statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Factors that increase accuracy of life expectancy prediction enable adequate information to be given to patients and families, contributing to therapeutic decision-making issues. Pediatr Blood Cancer. 2010;55:1167-1171. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Gambling has experienced world-wide growth The current study is the first national survey into household gambling conducted in a developing country The sample was a three-stage probabilistic one designed to cover individuals 14 years old or older of both genders and from all regions of the national territory 325 census sectors were visited including rural areas DSM-IV-based instruments were used to assess problem and pathological gambling individuals were asked to estimate their monthly gambling expenditure The lifetime prevalences were pathological gambling 1 0% and problem gambling 1 3% Maximum gambling expenditure corresponded to 5 4% of the household income for social gamblers 16 9% for problem gamblers and 20 0% for pathological gamblers The male female ratio among adults for pathological gambling was 3 2 1 The data suggest the existence of two subgroups of pathological gamblers one younger (33 9 +/- 4 19) and severe (7 or more DSM-IV criteria) another older (47 8 +/- 6 01) and less severe (5-6 criteria) In a multinomial logistic regression problematic gambling was associated with gender age education employment region of origin and living in metropolitan areas The data suggest that feeling active and socially inserted protects against problematic gambling Individuals who are young male unemployed or not currently pursuing further education may be at special risk for severe pathological gambling (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd All rights reserved

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Background Burden-of-illness data, which are often used in setting healthcare policy-spending priorities, are unavailable for mental disorders in most countries. Aims To examine one central aspect of illness burden, the association of serious mental illness with earnings, in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Method The WMH Surveys were carried out in 10 high-income and 9 low- and middle-income countries. The associations of personal earnings with serious mental illness were estimated. Results Respondents with serious mental illness earned on average a third less than median earnings, with no significant between-country differences (chi(2)(9)=5.5-8.1, P=0.5-0.79). These losses are equivalent to 0.3-0.8% of total national earnings. Reduced earnings among those with earnings and the increased probability of not earning are both important components of these associations: Conclusions These results add to a growing body of evidence that mental disorders have high societal costs. Decisions about healthcare resource allocation should take these costs into consideration.