Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The higher-level phylogeny of Archosauria (Tetrapoda: Diapsida)

Crown group Archosauria, which includes birds, dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs, and several extinct Mesozoic groups, is a primary division of the vertebrate tree of life. However, the higher-level phylogenetic relationships within Archosauria are poorly resolved and controversial, despite years of study. The phylogeny of crocodile-line archosaurs (Crurotarsi) is particularly contentious, and has been plagued by problematic taxon and character sampling. Recent discoveries and renewed focus on archosaur anatomy enable the compilation of a new dataset, which assimilates and standardizes character data pertinent to higher-level archosaur phylogeny, and is scored across the largest group of taxa yet analysed. This dataset includes 47 new characters (25% of total) and eight taxa that have yet to be included in an analysis, and total taxonomic sampling is more than twice that of any previous study. This analysis produces a well-resolved phylogeny, which recovers mostly traditional relationships within Avemetatarsalia, places Phytosauria as a basal crurotarsan clade, finds a close relationship between Aetosauria and Crocodylomorpha, and recovers a monophyletic Rauisuchia comprised of two major subclades. Support values are low, suggesting rampant homoplasy and missing data within Archosauria, but the phylogeny is highly congruent with stratigraphy. Comparison with alternative analyses identifies numerous scoring differences, but indicates that character sampling is the main source of incongruence. The phylogeny implies major missing lineages in the Early Triassic and may support a Carnian-Norian extinction event.

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model. Volatile organic compounds (VOC`s) are an important category of air pollutants and adsorption has been employed in the treatment (or simply concentration) of these compounds. The current study used an ordinary analytical methodology to evaluate the properties of a cup-stacked nanotube (CSCNT), a stacking morphology of truncated conical graphene, with large amounts of open edges on the outer surface and empty central channels. This work used a Carbotrap bearing a cup-stacked structure (composite); for comparison, Carbotrap was used as reference (without the nanotube). The retention and saturation capacities of both adsorbents to each concentration used (1, 5, 20 and 35 ppm of toluene and phenol) were evaluated. The composite performance was greater than Carbotrap; the saturation capacities for the composite was 67% higher than Carbotrap (average values). The Langmuir isotherm model was used to fit equilibrium data for both adsorbents, and a linear driving force model (LDF) was used to quantify intraparticle adsorption kinetics. LDF was suitable to describe the curves.

Local delivery of EGF-liposome mediated bone modeling in orthodontic tooth movement by increasing RANKL expression

Aims: It has long been demonstrated that epidermal growth factor (EGF) has catabolic effects oil bone. Thus. we examined the role of EGF in regulating mechanically induced bone modeling in a rat model of orthodontic tooth movement. Main methods: The maxillary first molars of rats were moved mesially using an orthodontic appliance attached to the maxillary incisor teeth. Rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: (G1) administration of PBS (Phosphate buffer saline Solution (n = 24); (G2) administration of empty liposomes (it = 24): (Q) administration 20 rig of EGF Solution (n = 24): and (G4) 20 ng of EGF-liposomes Solution (it = 24). Each Solution was injected in the mucosa of the left first molar adjacent to the appliance. At days 5, 10, 14 and 2 1 after drug administration. 6 animals of each group were sacrificed. Histomorphometric analysis was used to quantify osteoclasts (Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) + cells) and tooth movement. Using immunohistochemistry assay we evaluated the RANKL (receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression. Key findings: The EGF-liposome administration showed an increased tooth movement and osteoclast numbers compared to controls (p<0.05). This was correlated with intense RANKL expression. Both osteoblasts and osteoclasts expressed EGFR. Significance: Local delivery of EGF-liposome stimulates, osteoclastogenesis and tooth movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extracellular serotonin level in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala and dorsal periaqueductal gray under unconditioned and conditioned fear states: An in vivo microdialysis study

Serotonin (5-HT) plays a key role in the neural circuitry mediating unconditioned and conditioned fear responses related to panic and generalized anxiety disorders. The basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA) and the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG) appear to be mainly involved in these conditions. The aim of this study was to measure the extracellular level of 5-HT and its metabolite 5-hydroxyindolacetic acid (5-HIAA) in the BLA and dPAG during unconditioned and conditioned fear states using in vivo microdialysis procedure. Thus, for the unconditioned fear test, animals were chemically stimulated in the dPAG with semicarbazide, an inhibitor of the gamma-aminobutyric acid-synthesizing enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase. For the conditioned fear test, animals were subjected to a contextual conditioned fear paradigm using electrical footshock as the unconditioned stimulus. The results show that the 5-HT and 5-HIAA level in the BLA and dPAG did not change during unconditioned fear, whereas 5-HT concentration, but not 5-HIAA concentration, increased in these brain areas during conditioned fear. The present study showed that the 5-HT system was activated during conditioned fear, whereas it remained unchanged during unconditioned fear, supporting the hypothesis that 5-HT has distinct roles in conditioned and unconditioned fear (dual role of 5-HT in anxiety disorders). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel Treatment Immediately after Myelomeningocele Repair Applying Low-Level Laser Therapy in Newborns: A Pilot Study

Background/Aims: The use of low-level laser therapy (LLLT) in neurosurgery is still hardly disseminated and there are situations in which the effects of this therapeutic tool would be extremely relevant in this medical field. The aim of the present study is to analyze the effect of LLLT on tissue repair after the corrective surgical incision in neonates with myelomeningocele, in an attempt to diminish the incidence of postoperative dehiscences following surgical repair performed immediately after birth. Materials and Methods: Prospective pilot study with 13 patients submitted to surgery at birth who received adjuvant treatment with LLLT (group A). A diode laser CW, lambda = 685 nm, p = 21 mW, was applied punctually along the surgical incision, with 0.19 J delivered per point, accounting for a total of 4-10 J delivered energy per patient, according to the surgical wound area and then compared with the results obtained in 23 patients who underwent surgery without laser therapy (group B). Results: This pilot study disclosed a significant decline in dehiscences of the surgical wounds in neonates who were submitted to LLLT (7.69 vs. 17.39%). Conclusion: This new adjuvant therapeutic modality with LLLT aided the healing of surgical wounds, preventing morbidities, as well as shortening the period of hospital stay, which implies a reduction of costs for patients and for the institution. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Serum Ferritin Level Remains a Reliable Marker of Bone Marrow Iron Stores Evaluated by Histomorphometry in Hemodialysis Patients

Background and objectives: As well as being a marker of body iron stores, serum ferritin (sFerritin) has also been shown to be a marker of inflammation in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of this study was to analyze whether sFerritin is a reliable marker of the iron stores present in bone marrow of HD patients. Design: Histomorphometric analysis of stored transiliac bone biopsies was used to assess iron stores by determining the number of iron-stained cells per square millimeter of bone marrow. Results: In 96 patients, the laboratory parameters were hemoglobin = 11.3 +/- 1.6 g/dl, hematocrit = 34.3 +/- 5%, sFerritin 609 +/- 305 ng/ml, transferrin saturation = 32.7 +/- 22.5%, and C-reactive protein (CRP) = 0.9 +/- 1.4 mg/dl. sFerritin correlated significantly with CRP, bone marrow iron, and time on HD treatment W = 0.006, 0.001, and 0.048, respectively). The independent determinants of sFerritin were CRP (beta-coef = 0.26; 95% CI = 24.6 to 132.3) and bone marrow iron (beta-coef = 0.32; 95% CI = 0.54 to 2.09). Bone marrow iron was higher in patients with sFerritin >500 ng/ml than in those with sFerritin :5500 ng/ml. In the group of patients with sFerritin :5500 ng/ml, the independent determinant of sFerritin was bone marrow iron (beta-coef = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.48 to 1.78), but in the group of patients with sFerritin >500 ng/ml, no independent determinant of sFerritin was found. Conclusions: sFerritin adequately reflects iron stores in bone marrow of HD patients.

Long-term safety and efficacy of percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting and coronary artery bypass surgery for multivessel coronary artery disease - A meta-analysis with 5-year patient-level data from the ARTS, ERACI-II, MASS-II, and SoS trials

Background-Randomized trials that studied clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare metal stenting versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are underpowered to properly assess safety end points like death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Pooling data from randomized controlled trials increases the statistical power and allows better assessment of the treatment effect in high-risk subgroups. Methods and Results-We performed a pooled analysis of 3051 patients in 4 randomized trials evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of PCI with stenting and CABG at 5 years for the treatment of multivessel coronary artery disease. The primary end point was the composite end point of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The secondary end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular accidents, death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We tested for heterogeneities in treatment effect in patient subgroups. At 5 years, the cumulative incidence of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke was similar in patients randomized to PCI with stenting versus CABG (16.7% versus 16.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.27; P = 0.69). Repeat revascularization, however, occurred significantly more frequently after PCI than CABG (29.0% versus 7.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.29; P<0.001). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were significantly higher in the PCI than the CABG group (39.2% versus 23.0%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.61; P<0.001). No heterogeneity of treatment effect was found in the subgroups, including diabetic patients and those presenting with 3-vessel disease. Conclusions-In this pooled analysis of 4 randomized trials, PCI with stenting was associated with a long-term safety profile similar to that of CABG. However, as a result of persistently lower repeat revascularization rates in the CABG patients, overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were significantly lower in the CABG group at 5 years.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

Low-Level Laser Therapy in Chronic Autoimmune Thyroiditis: A Pilot Study

Background and Objectives: Chronic autoimmune thyroiditis (CAT) remains the most common cause of acquired hypothyroidism There is currently no therapy that is capable of regenerating CAT-damaged thyroid tissue The objective of this study was to gauge the value of applying low-level laser therapy (LLLT) in CAT patients based on both ultrasound studies (USs) and evaluations of thyroid function and thyroid autoantibodies. Study Design/Materials and Methods: Fifteen patients who had hypothyroidism caused by CAT and were undergoing levothyroxine (LT4) treatment were selected to participate in the study Patients received 10 applications of LLLT (830 nm, output power 50 mW) in continuous mode, twice a week, using either the punctual technique (8 patients) or the sweep technique (7 patients), with fluence in the range of 38-108 J/cm(2) USs were performed prior to and 30 days after LLLT USs included a quantitative analysis of echogenicity through a gray-scale computerized histogram index (El). Following the second ultrasound (30 days after LLLT), LT4 was discontinued in all patients and, if required, reintroduced Truodothyronine, thyroxine (T4), free T4, thyrotropin, thyroid peroxidase (TPOAb) and thyroglobulin (TgAb) antibodies levels were assessed before LLLT and then 1, 2, 3, 6, and 9 months after LT4 withdrawal. Results: We noted all patients` reduced LT4 dosage needs, including 7 (47%) who did not require any LT4 through the 9-month follow-up The LT4 dosage used pre-LLLT (96 +/- 22 mu g/day) decreased in the 9th month of follow-up (38 23 mu g/day; P<0.0001) TPOAb levels also decreased (pre-LLLT = 982 +/- 530 U/ml, post-LLLT = 579 454 U/ml, P = 0 016) TgAb levels were not reduced, though we did observe a post-LLLT increase in the EI (pre-LLLT = 0 99 +/- 0.09, post-LLLT= 1.21 +/- 0.19, P=0.001) Conclusion: The preliminary results indicate that LLLT promotes the improvement of thyroid function, as patients experienced a decreased need for LT4, a reduction in TPOAb levels, and an increase in parenchymal echogenicity Lasers Surg. Med. 42:589-596, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc

The impact of functional connectivity changes on support vector machines mapping of fMRI data

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is currently one of the most widely used methods for studying human brain function in vivo. Although many different approaches to fMRI analysis are available, the most widely used methods employ so called ""mass-univariate"" modeling of responses in a voxel-by-voxel fashion to construct activation maps. However, it is well known that many brain processes involve networks of interacting regions and for this reason multivariate analyses might seem to be attractive alternatives to univariate approaches. The current paper focuses on one multivariate application of statistical learning theory: the statistical discrimination maps (SDM) based on support vector machine, and seeks to establish some possible interpretations when the results differ from univariate `approaches. In fact, when there are changes not only on the activation level of two conditions but also on functional connectivity, SDM seems more informative. We addressed this question using both simulations and applications to real data. We have shown that the combined use of univariate approaches and SDM yields significant new insights into brain activations not available using univariate methods alone. In the application to a visual working memory fMRI data, we demonstrated that the interaction among brain regions play a role in SDM`s power to detect discriminative voxels. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Education Level Explains Differences in Stroke Incidence among City Districts in Joinville, Brazil: A Three-Year Population-Based Study

Background: Current evidence suggests an inverse association between socioeconomic status and stroke incidence. Our aim was to measure the variation in incidence among different city districts (CD) and their association with socioeconomic variables. Methods: We prospectively ascertained all possible stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during the period 2005-2007. We determined the incidence for each of the 38 CD, age-adjusted to the population of Joinville. By linear regression analysis, we correlated incidence data with mean years of education (MYE) and mean income per month (MIPM). Results: Of the 1,734 stroke cases registered, 1,034 were first-ever strokes. In the study period, the crude incidence in Joinville was 69.5 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 65.3-73.9). The stroke incidence among CD ranged from 37.5 (22.2-64.6) to 151.0 per 100,000 (69.0-286.6). The stroke incidence was inversely correlated with years of education (r = -0.532; p<0.001). MYE and MIPM were strongly related (R = 0.958), resulting in exclusion of MIPM by collinearity. Conclusions: Years of education can explain a wide incidence variation among CD. These results may be useful to guide the allocation of resources in primary prevention policies. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor level is reduced in antidepressant-free patients with late-life depression

Objectives. The aim of the present study is to investigate serum BDNF levels in older depressed patients as compared to healthy elderly controls. Methods. Twenty-nine elderly subjects with major depression and 42 healthy older adults were enrolled to this study. All depressed patients were antidepressant-free for at least 1 month prior clinical and laboratorial assessments. Serum BDNF levels were determined by sandwich ELISA. Results. BDNF levels were lower in elderly depressed patients as compared to controls (P = 0.034). Patients with late-onset depression had the lowest BDNF level (median 478.5, interquartile range 373.5-740.9 pg/l) when compared to early-onset depression (median 620.7, interquartile range 366.1-971.9 pg/l) and healthy controls (median 711.3, interquartile range 534.7-1181.0 pg/l) (P < 0.03). Conclusions. Reduced serum BDNF level may be a state marker of late-life depression in non-medicated elderly patients. Our findings provide further evidences that reduced neurotrophic support may have an important role in the physiopathology of late-life depression.

Higher Serum sTNFR1 Level Predicts Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer`s Disease

The activation of inflammatory cascades has been consistently demonstrated in the pathophysiology of Alzheimer`s disease (AD). Among several putative neuroinflammatory mechanisms, the tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) signaling system has a central role in this process. Recent evidence indicates that the abnormal production of inflammatory factors may accompany the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia. We aimed to examine serum levels of TNF-alpha and its soluble receptors (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) in patients with MCI and AD as compared to cognitively unimpaired elderly subjects. We further aimed to investigate whether abnormal levels of these cytokines predict the progression from MCI to AD upon follow-up. We utilized cross-sectional determination of serum levels of TNF-alpha, sTNFR1, and sTNFR2 (ELISA method) in a test group comprising 167 older adults (31 AD, 72 MCI, and 64 healthy controls), and longitudinal reassessment of clinical status after 18.9 +/- 10.0 months. At baseline, there were no statistically significant differences in serum TNF-alpha, sTNFR1, and sTNFR2 between patients with MCI and AD as compared to controls. Nevertheless, patients with MCI who progressed to AD had significantly higher serum sTNFR1 levels as opposed to patients who retained the diagnosis of MCI upon follow-up (p = 0.03). Cox regression analysis showed that high serum sTNFR1 levels predicted the conversion from MCI to AD (p = 0.003), whereas no significant differences were found with respect to serum levels of TNF-alpha and sTNFR2. Abnormal activation of TNF-alpha signaling system, represented by increased expression of sTNFR1, is associated with a higher risk of progression from MCI to AD.

A NEUROECONOMIC MODELING OF ATTENTION-DEFICIT/HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER (ADHD)

In this paper we present a new neuroeconomics model for decision-making applied to the Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The model is based on the hypothesis that decision-making is dependent on the evaluation of expected rewards and risks assessed simultaneously in two decision spaces: the personal (PDS) and the interpersonal emotional spaces (IDS). Motivation to act is triggered by necessities identified in PDS or IDS. The adequacy of an action in fulfilling a given necessity is assumed to be dependent on the expected reward and risk evaluated in the decision spaces. Conflict generated by expected reward and risk influences the easiness (cognitive effort) and the future perspective of the decision-making. Finally, the willingness (not) to act is proposed to be a function of the expected reward (or risk), adequacy, easiness and future perspective. The two most frequent clinical forms are ADHD hyperactive (AD/HDhyp) and ADHD inattentive (AD/HDdin). AD/HDhyp behavior is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for short periods of time, low risk evaluation, and short future perspective for decision-making. AD/HDin is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for long periods of time, low risk evaluation, and long future perspective for decision-making.