Evaluating the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators

This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.

The pareto-stability concept is a natural solution concept for discrete matching markets with indifferences

In a decentralized setting the game-theoretical predictions are that only strong blockings are allowed to rupture the structure of a matching. This paper argues that, under indifferences, also weak blockings should be considered when these blockings come from the grand coalition. This solution concept requires stability plus Pareto optimality. A characterization of the set of Pareto-stable matchings for the roommate and the marriage models is provided in terms of individually rational matchings whose blocking pairs, if any, are formed with unmatched agents. These matchings always exist and give an economic intuition on how blocking can be done by non-trading agents, so that the transactions need not be undone as agents reach the set of stable matchings. Some properties of the Pareto-stable matchings shared by the Marriage and Roommate models are obtained.

Adjusting prices in the multiple-partners assignment game

Starting with an initial price vector, prices are adjusted in order to eliminate the excess demand and at the same time to keep the transfers to the sellers as low as possible. In each step of the auction, to which set of sellers should those transfers be made is the key issue in the description of the algorithm. We assume additively separable utilities and introduce a novel distinction by considering multiple sellers owing multiple identical objects and multiple buyers with an exogenously defined quota, consuming more than one object but at most one unit of a seller`s good and having multi-dimensional payoffs. This distinction induces a necessarily more complicated construction of the over-demanded sets than the constructions of these sets for the other assignment games. For this approach, our mechanism yields the buyer-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff, which equals the buyer-optimal stable payoff. The symmetry of the model allows to getting the seller-optimal stable payoff and the seller-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff can then be also derived.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.

Who chooses to inflation target?

In this article, we seek what are the factors behind a country`s decision to move to Inflation Targeting. We find that high past inflation, low debt levels and the absence of a nominal exchange rate anchor increase the probability that a country will end up opting for it. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The stability of the equilibrium outcomes in the admission games induced by stable matching rules

A stable matching rule is used as the outcome function for the Admission game where colleges behave straightforwardly and the students` strategies are given by their preferences over the colleges. We show that the college-optimal stable matching rule implements the set of stable matchings via the Nash equilibrium (NE) concept. For any other stable matching rule the strategic behavior of the students may lead to outcomes that are not stable under the true preferences. We then introduce uncertainty about the matching selected and prove that the natural solution concept is that of NE in the strong sense. A general result shows that the random stable matching rule, as well as any stable matching rule, implements the set of stable matchings via NE in the strong sense. Precise answers are given to the strategic questions raised.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Worker demography in a large-colony, swarm-founding wasp

Neotropical swarm-founding wasps build nests enclosed in a covering envelope, which makes it difficult to count individual births and deaths. Thus, knowledge of worker demography is very limited for swarm-founding species compared with that for independent-founding species. In this study, we explored the worker demography of the swarm-founding wasp Polybia paulista, the colony size of which usually exceeds several thousand adults. We considered each wasp colony as an open-population and estimated the survival probability, recruitment rate, and population size of workers using the developments of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. We found that capture probability varied considerably among the workers, probably due to age polyethism and/or task specialization. The daily survival rate of workers was high (around 0.97) throughout the season and was not related to the phase of colony development. On the other hand, the recruitment rate ranged from 0 to 0.37, suggesting that worker production was substantially less important than worker survival in determining worker population fluctuations. When we compared survival rates among worker groups of one colony, the mean daily survival rate was lower for founding workers than for progeny workers and tended to be higher in progeny workers that emerged in winter. These differences in survivorship patterns among worker cohorts would be related to worker foraging activity and/or level of parasitism.

The higher-level phylogeny of Archosauria (Tetrapoda: Diapsida)

Crown group Archosauria, which includes birds, dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs, and several extinct Mesozoic groups, is a primary division of the vertebrate tree of life. However, the higher-level phylogenetic relationships within Archosauria are poorly resolved and controversial, despite years of study. The phylogeny of crocodile-line archosaurs (Crurotarsi) is particularly contentious, and has been plagued by problematic taxon and character sampling. Recent discoveries and renewed focus on archosaur anatomy enable the compilation of a new dataset, which assimilates and standardizes character data pertinent to higher-level archosaur phylogeny, and is scored across the largest group of taxa yet analysed. This dataset includes 47 new characters (25% of total) and eight taxa that have yet to be included in an analysis, and total taxonomic sampling is more than twice that of any previous study. This analysis produces a well-resolved phylogeny, which recovers mostly traditional relationships within Avemetatarsalia, places Phytosauria as a basal crurotarsan clade, finds a close relationship between Aetosauria and Crocodylomorpha, and recovers a monophyletic Rauisuchia comprised of two major subclades. Support values are low, suggesting rampant homoplasy and missing data within Archosauria, but the phylogeny is highly congruent with stratigraphy. Comparison with alternative analyses identifies numerous scoring differences, but indicates that character sampling is the main source of incongruence. The phylogeny implies major missing lineages in the Early Triassic and may support a Carnian-Norian extinction event.

Fragmentation of a Neotropical migratory fish population by a century-old dam

Loss of connectivity in impounded rivers is among the impacts imposed by dams, and mitigation measures such as fish passages might not accomplish their purpose of reestablishing an efficient bi-directional gene flow in the fish populations affected. As a consequence, fish populations remain fragmented, and a new interpopulational structure may develop, with increased risk of reduced genetic diversity and stochastic extinction. In order to evaluate the effects of the Gavio Peixoto Dam, which was constructed almost a century ago on the Jacar,-Gua double dagger u River in the Upper Parana River basin, Brazil, a comparative morphometric study was undertaken on the populations of the Neotropical migratory characid fish Salminus hilarii living up- and downstream of this dam. Population dynamics, spatial segregation, and habitat use by different age classes were monitored for 2 years. We found that segregation caused by the dam and long periods with no efficient connection by fish passages have led to fragmentation and interpopulational structuring of S. hilarii, as revealed by canonical variable analysis of morphometric features. The fish populations occupying the up- and downstream sections have succeeded in performing short-distance reproductive migrations in the main river and tributaries, have found suitable habitats for completing their life cycle, and have been able to maintain distinct small-sized populations so far.

Cranial anatomy of a new genus of hyperodapedontine rhynchosaur (Diapsida, Archosauromorpha) from the Upper Triassic of southern Brazil

Detailed description of the cranial anatomy of the rhynchosaur previously known as Scaphonyx sulcognathus allows its assignment to a new genus Teyumbaita. Two nearly complete skulls and a partial skull have been referred to the taxon, all of which come from the lower part of the Caturrita Formation, Upper Triassic of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil. Cranial autapomorphies of Teyumbaita sulcognathus include anterior margin of nasal concave at midline, prefrontal separated from the ascending process of the maxilla, palatal ramus of pterygoid expanded laterally within palatines, dorsal surface of exoccipital markedly depressed, a single tooth lingually displaced from the main medial tooth-bearing area of the maxilla, and a number of other characters (such as skull broader than long; a protruding orbital anterior margin; anguli oils extending to anterior ramus of the jugal; bar between the orbit and the lower temporal fenestra wider than 0.4 of the total orbital opening; mandibular depth reaching more than 25% of the total length) support its inclusion in Hyperodapedontinae. T. sulcognathus is the only potential Norian rhynchosaur, suggesting that the group survived the end-Carnian extinction event.

Use of the q-Gaussian mutation in evolutionary algorithms

This paper proposes the use of the q-Gaussian mutation with self-adaptation of the shape of the mutation distribution in evolutionary algorithms. The shape of the q-Gaussian mutation distribution is controlled by a real parameter q. In the proposed method, the real parameter q of the q-Gaussian mutation is encoded in the chromosome of individuals and hence is allowed to evolve during the evolutionary process. In order to test the new mutation operator, evolution strategy and evolutionary programming algorithms with self-adapted q-Gaussian mutation generated from anisotropic and isotropic distributions are presented. The theoretical analysis of the q-Gaussian mutation is also provided. In the experimental study, the q-Gaussian mutation is compared to Gaussian and Cauchy mutations in the optimization of a set of test functions. Experimental results show the efficiency of the proposed method of self-adapting the mutation distribution in evolutionary algorithms.

Effects of pasture implantation on the termite (Isoptera) fauna in the Central Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado)

The advance of agricultural frontier may cause the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) to disappear before 2030. This work focuses on measuring the impact of pasture implantation on a cerrado`s termite fauna. Termites were sampled in a cerrado sensu stricto and a pasture, originally cerrado. All species were classified as their feeder group, accumulation curves were made and Shannon-Wiener indexes and beta diversity were calculated for both areas. Cerrado was richer than pasture and species composition differed considerably, leading beta diversity to a high value. The humivorous was the most representative species, followed by grass/litter feeders, xylophagous and, less representative, the intermediates. There were more xylophagous and intermediates species on cerrado than in pasture; the grass/litter feeders were more abundant in pasture, but didn`t differed in number or species; and humivorous didn`t differed neither in richness nor in abundance. This work shows that the simplification of the habitat is indeed causing the extinction of populations that depend on some specifics resource.

Rewarded associative and instrumental conditioning after neonatal ventral hippocampus lesions in rats

Sprague Dawley rats were submitted to bilateral ventral hippocampus lesions 7 days after birth. This corresponds to the Lipska and Weinberger`s procedure for modeling schizophrenia. The aim of the present work was to test the learning capacity of such rats with an associative Pavlovian and an instrumental learning paradigm, both methods using reward outcome (food, sucrose or polycose). The associative paradigm comprised also a second learning test with reversed learning contingencies. The instrumental conditioning comprised an extinction test under outcome devaluation conditions. Neonatally lesioned rats, once adults (over 60 days of age), showed a conditioning deficit in the associative paradigm but not in the instrumental one. Lesioned rats remained able to adapt as readily as controls to the reversed learning contingency and were as sensitive as controls to the devaluation of outcome. Such observations indicate that the active access (instrumental learning) to a reward could have compensated for the deficit observed under the ""passive"" stimulus-reward associative learning condition. This feature is compared to the memory management impairments observed in clinical patients. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.