Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Microbiological indicators for the assessment of performance in the hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) system in meat lasagna production

The HACCP system is being increasingly used to ensure food safety. This study investigated the validation of the control measures technique in order to establish performance indicators of this HACCP system in the manufacturing process of Lasagna Bolognese (meat lasagna). Samples were collected along the manufacturing process as a whole, before and after the CCPs. The following microorganism s indicator (MIs) was assessed: total mesophile and faecal coliform counts. The same MIs were analyzed in the final product, as well as, the microbiological standards required by the current legislation. A significant reduction in the total mesophile count was observed after cooking (p < 0.001). After storage, there was a numerical, however non-significant change in the MI count. Faecal coliform counts were also significantly reduced (p < 0.001) after cooking. We were able to demonstrate that the HACCP system allowed us to meet the standards set by both, the company and the Brazilian regulations, proved by the reduction in the established indicators

A Vaccine Encoding Conserved Promiscuous HIV CD4 Epitopes Induces Broad T Cell Responses in Mice Transgenic to Multiple Common HLA Class II Molecules

Current HIV vaccine approaches are focused on immunogens encoding whole HIV antigenic proteins that mainly elicit cytotoxic CD8+ responses. Mounting evidence points toward a critical role for CD4+ T cells in the control of immunodeficiency virus replication, probably due to cognate help. Vaccine-induced CD4+ T cell responses might, therefore, have a protective effect in HIV replication. In addition, successful vaccines may have to elicit responses to multiple epitopes in a high proportion of vaccinees, to match the highly variable circulating strains of HIV. Using rational vaccine design, we developed a DNA vaccine encoding 18 algorithm-selected conserved, ""promiscuous"" ( multiple HLA-DR-binding) B-subtype HIV CD4 epitopes - previously found to be frequently recognized by HIV-infected patients. We assessed the ability of the vaccine to induce broad T cell responses in the context of multiple HLA class II molecules using different strains of HLA class II-transgenic mice (-DR2, -DR4, -DQ6 and -DQ8). Mice displayed CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses of significant breadth and magnitude, and 16 out of the 18 encoded epitopes were recognized. By virtue of inducing broad responses against conserved CD4+ T cell epitopes that can be recognized in the context of widely diverse, common HLA class II alleles, this vaccine concept may cope both with HIV genetic variability and increased population coverage. The vaccine may thus be a source of cognate help for HIV-specific CD8+ T cells elicited by conventional immunogens, in a wide proportion of vaccinees.

Trends in dermatomyositis- and polymyositis-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2007: multiple cause-of-death analysis

Background: Dermatomyositis (DM) and polymyositis (PM) are rare systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases with high fatality rates. There have been few population-based mortality studies of dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the world, and none have been conducted in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to employ multiple-cause of-death methodology in the analysis of trends in mortality related to dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and 2007. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which DM or PM was listed as a cause of death. The variables sex, age and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analysis were performed by chi-square and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, variance analysis and linear regression. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 23-year period, there were 318 DM-related deaths and 316 PM-related deaths. Overall, DM/PM was designated as an underlying cause in 55.2% and as an associated cause in 44.8%; among 634 total deaths females accounted for 71.5%. During the study period, age-and gender-adjusted DM mortality rates did not change significantly, although PM as an underlying cause and total mentions of PM trended lower (p < 0.05). The mean ages at death were 47.76 +/- 20.81 years for DM and 54.24 +/- 17.94 years for PM (p = 0.0003). For DM/PM, respectively, as underlying causes, the principal associated causes of death were as follows: pneumonia (in 43.8%/33.5%); respiratory failure (in 34.4%/32.3%); interstitial pulmonary diseases and other pulmonary conditions (in 28.9%/17.6%); and septicemia (in 22.8%/15.9%). For DM/PM, respectively, as associated causes, the following were the principal underlying causes of death: respiratory disorders (in 28.3%/26.0%); circulatory disorders (in 17.4%/20.5%); neoplasms (in 16.7%/13.7%); infectious and parasitic diseases (in 11.6%/9.6%); and gastrointestinal disorders (in 8.0%/4.8%). Of the 318 DM-related deaths, 36 involved neoplasms, compared with 20 of the 316 PM-related deaths (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Our study using multiple cause of deaths found that DM/PM were identified as the underlying cause of death in only 55.2% of the deaths, indicating that both diseases were underestimated in the primary mortality statistics. We observed a predominance of deaths in women and in older individuals, as well as a trend toward stability in the mortality rates. We have confirmed that the risk of death is greater when either disease is accompanied by neoplasm, albeit to lesser degree in individuals with PM. The investigation of the underlying and associated causes of death related to DM/PM broaden the knowledge of the natural history of both diseases and could help integrate mortality data for use in the evaluation of control measures for DM/PM.

Runoff sources and land cover change in the Amazon: an end-member mixing analysis from small watersheds

The flowpaths by which water moves from watersheds to streams has important consequences for the runoff dynamics and biogeochemistry of surface waters in the Amazon Basin. The clearing of Amazon forest to cattle pasture has the potential to change runoff sources to streams by shifting runoff to more surficial flow pathways. We applied end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) to 10 small watersheds throughout the Amazon in which solute composition of streamwater and groundwater, overland flow, soil solution, throughfall and rainwater were measured, largely as part of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia. We found a range in the extent to which streamwater samples fell within the mixing space determined by potential flowpath end-members, suggesting that some water sources to streams were not sampled. The contribution of overland flow as a source of stream flow was greater in pasture watersheds than in forest watersheds of comparable size. Increases in overland flow contribution to pasture streams ranged in some cases from 0% in forest to 27-28% in pasture and were broadly consistent with results from hydrometric sampling of Amazon forest and pasture watersheds that indicate 17- to 18-fold increase in the overland flow contribution to stream flow in pastures. In forest, overland flow was an important contribution to stream flow (45-57%) in ephemeral streams where flows were dominated by stormflow. Overland flow contribution to stream flow decreased in importance with increasing watershed area, from 21 to 57% in forest and 60-89% in pasture watersheds of less than 10 ha to 0% in forest and 27-28% in pastures in watersheds greater than 100 ha. Soil solution contributions to stream flow were similar across watershed area and groundwater inputs generally increased in proportion to decreases in overland flow. Application of EMMA across multiple watersheds indicated patterns across gradients of stream size and land cover that were consistent with patterns determined by detailed hydrometric sampling.

Multiple random crack propagation using a boundary element formulation

This paper proposes a boundary element method (BEM) model that is used for the analysis of multiple random crack growth by considering linear elastic fracture mechanics problems and structures subjected to fatigue. The formulation presented in this paper is based on the dual boundary element method, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. This technique avoids singularities of the resulting algebraic system of equations, despite the fact that the collocation points coincide for the two opposite crack faces. In fracture mechanics analyses, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate stress intensity factors. The maximum circumferential stress theory is used to evaluate the propagation angle and the effective stress intensity factor. The fatigue model uses Paris` law to predict structural life. Examples of simple and multi-fractured structures loaded until rupture are considered. These analyses demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model. In addition, the results indicate that this formulation is accurate and can model localisation and coalescence phenomena. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric change in the grammatical encoding of indirect objects in Brazilian Portuguese

This paper examines the syntax of indirect objects (IO) in Brazilian Portuguese (BP). Adopting a comparative perspective we propose that BP differs from European Portuguese (EP) in the grammatical encoding of IO. In EP ditransitive contexts, IO is found in two configurations - one projected by a (low) applicative head and another one involving a lexical/true preposition. We propose that the former property is contingent upon the presence of dative Case marking: namely, the morpheme `a` that introduces IO (a-DP), whose corresponding clitic pronoun is `lhe/lhes`. In contrast, important changes in the pronominal system, coupled with the increase in the use of the preposition `para` are taken as evidence for the loss of the low applicative construction in BP. Thus only the configuration with the lexical/true preposition is found in (Standard) BP. We argue that the innovative properties of IO in BP are due to the loss of the (3rd person) dative clitic and the preposition `a` as dative Case markers. Under this view, we further account for the realization of IO as a DP/weak pronoun, found in dialects of the central region of Brazil, which points to a similarity with the English Double Object Construction. Finally we show that the connection between the morphological expression of the dative Case and the expression of parameters supports a view of syntactic change according to which parametric variation is determined in the lexicon, in terms of the formal features of functional heads.

Bone mineral density analysis in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism associated with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 after total parathyroidectomy

P>Objective Limited data have been reported on the effect of parathyroidectomy (PTx) on bone mineral density (BMD) in the setting of patients with hyperparathyroidism (HPT) associated with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1). This study investigates the impact of total PTx on BMD in patients with HPT/MEN1. Design and patients A case series study was performed in a tertiary academic hospital. A total of 16 HPT/MEN1 patients from six families harbouring MEN1 germline mutations were subjected to total PTx followed by parathyroid auto-implant in the forearm. Measurements Bone mineral density values were assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results Before PTx, reduced BMD (Z-score <-2 center dot 0) was highly prevalent in the proximal one-third of the distal radius (1/3 DR) (50%), lumbar spine (LS) (43 center dot 7%), ultradistal radius (UDR) (43 center dot 7%), femoral neck (FN) (25%) and total femur (TF) (18 center dot 7%) in the patients. Fifteen months after PTx, we observed a BMD improvement in the LS (from 0 center dot 843 to 0 center dot 909 g/cm2; +8 center dot 4%, P = 0 center dot 001), FN (from 0 center dot 745 to 0 center dot 798 g/cm2; +7 center dot 7%, P = 0 center dot 0001) and TF (from 0 center dot 818 to 0 center dot 874 g/cm2; +6 center dot 9%, P < 0 center dot 0001). No significant change was noticed in the 1/3 DR and UDR after PTx. Conclusions This data confirmed BMD recovery in the LS and FN after PTx in HPT/MEN1 patients. We also documented a significant BMD increase in the TF and no change in both the 1/3 DR and UDR BMD after PTx. Our data suggest that LS and proximal femur are the most informative sites to evaluate the short-term BMD outcome after PTx in HPT/MEN1 subjects.

Immunization with pVAXhsp65 Decreases Inflammation and Modulates Immune Response in Experimental Encephalomyelitis

Background: A DNA vaccine (pVAXhsp65) containing the gene of a heat-shock protein (hsp65) from Mycobacterium leprae showed high immunogenicity and protective efficacy against tuberculosis in BALB/c mice. A possible deleterious effect related to autoimmunity needed to be tested because hsp65 is highly homologous to the correspondent mammalian protein. In this investigation we tested the effect of a previous immunization with DNAhsp65 in the development of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a rat model of multiple sclerosis. Methods: Female Lewis rats were immunized with 3 pVAXhsp65 doses by intramuscular route. Fifteen days after the last DNA dose the animals were evaluated for specific immunity or submitted to induction of EAE. Animals were evaluated daily for weight loss and clinical score, and euthanized during the recovery phase to assess the immune response and inflammatory infiltration at the central nervous system. Results: Immunization with pVAXhsp65 induced a specific immune response characterized by production of IgG(2b) anti-hsp65 antibodies and IFN-gamma secretion. Previous immunization with pVAXhsp65 did not change EAE clinical manifestations (weight and clinical score). However, the vaccine clearly decreased brain and lumbar spinal cord inflammation. In addition, it downmodulated IFN-gamma and IL-10 production by peripheral lymphoid organs. Conclusion: Our data demonstrated that this vaccine does not trigger a deleterious effect on EAE development and also points to a potential protective effect. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis evolution was not modified by multiple infections with Strongyloides venezuelensis

P>According to the hygiene hypothesis, the increased incidence of allergic and autoimmune diseases in developed countries is mainly explained by the decreased contact between the human population and certain environmental agents as lactobacillus, mycobacteria and helminths. In this study, we evaluated the effect of multiple infections with Strongyloides venezuelensis on the development of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) in Lewis rats. Multiple infections before EAE induction were not able to change the evolution of the disease. No alterations were observed in weight loss, clinical score and inflammation intensity at the central nervous system. The presence of significant levels of parasite-specific IgG1 but not IgG2b suggested a Th2 polarization. However, the percentage and absolute number of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ T cells were not changed, being their levels in the spleen and lymph nodes of infected rats comparable to the ones found in normal animals. These results suggest that a Th2-polarized response without concomitant expansion of Foxp3+ regulatory T cells was not able to modify EAE progression. Even though these results do not threaten the hygiene hypothesis, they suggest that this paradigm might be an oversimplification. They also emphasize the need of a study to compare the immunoregulatory ability associated with different helminth spp.

Hydrodynamical simulations of Galactic fountains - II. Evolution of multiple fountains

The ejection of gas out of the disc in late-type galaxies is related to star formation and is mainly due to the explosion of Type II supernovae (SN II). In a previous paper, we considered the evolution of a single Galactic fountain, that is, a fountain powered by a single SN cluster. Using three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations, we studied in detail the fountain flow and its dependence with several factors, such as the Galactic rotation, the distance to the Galactic centre and the presence of a hot gaseous halo. As a natural followup, this paper investigates the dynamical evolution of multiple generations of fountains generated by similar to 100 OB associations. We have considered the observed size-frequency distribution of young stellar clusters within the Galaxy in order to appropriately fuel the multiple fountains in our simulations. Most of the results of the previous paper have been confirmed, like for example the formation of intermediate velocity clouds above the disc by the multiple fountains. Also, this work confirms the localized nature of the fountain flows: the freshly ejected metals tend to fall back close to the same Galactocentric region where they are delivered. Therefore, the fountains do not change significantly the radial profile of the disc chemical abundance. The multiple fountain simulations also allowed us to consistently calculate the feedback of the star formation on the halo gas. We found that the hot gas gains about 10 per cent of all the SN II energy produced in the disc. Thus, the SN feedback more than compensate for the halo radiative losses and allow for a quasi steady-state disc-halo circulation to exist. Finally, we have also considered the possibility of mass infall from the intergalactic medium and its interaction with the clouds that are formed by the fountains. Though our simulations are not suitable to reproduce the slow rotational pattern that is typically observed in the haloes around the disc galaxies, they indicate that the presence of an external gas infall may help to slow down the rotation of the gas in the clouds and thus the amount of angular momentum that they transfer to the coronal gas, as previously suggested in the literature.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

Nutrition in Transition: Dietary Patterns of Rural Amazonian Women During a Period of Economic Change

Objectives: The goal of this study was to understand the relationship between economic change (wage labor, retirement, and the Bolsa Familia program) and dietary patterns in the rural Amazon and to determine the extent to which these changes followed the pattern of the nutrition transition. Methods: The study was longitudinal. The weighed-inventory method and economic interviews were used to collect data on dietary intake and household economics in a sample of 30 and 52 women in 2002 and 2009, respectively. Twenty of the women participated in both years and make-up the longitudinal sub-sample. Comparative statistics were used to identify changes in dietary patterns over time and multiple linear regressions were used to explore the relationship between economics, subsistence strategies, and diet. Results: There was a significant decline in kcal (P < 0.01) and carbohydrate (P < 0.01) but no change in protein intake over time in both the larger and smaller, longitudinal subsample. The percent of energy, carbohydrate, protein, and fat purchased increased in the larger and longitudinal samples (P <= 0.02) and there was an increase in refined carbohydrate and processed, fatty-meat consumption over time. The abandonment of manioc gardens was associated with increased dependence on purchased food (P = 0.03) while receipt of the Bolsa Familia was associated with increased protein intake and adequacy (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The dietary changes observed are only in partial agreement with predictions of the nutrition transition literature. The relationship between the economic and diet changes was shaped by the local context which should be considered when implementing CCT programs, like the Bolsa Familia. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 23:458-469, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Multiple camera people detection and tracking using support integration

This paper proposes a method to locate and track people by combining evidence from multiple cameras using the homography constraint. The proposed method use foreground pixels from simple background subtraction to compute evidence of the location of people on a reference ground plane. The algorithm computes the amount of support that basically corresponds to the ""foreground mass"" above each pixel. Therefore, pixels that correspond to ground points have more support. The support is normalized to compensate for perspective effects and accumulated on the reference plane for all camera views. The detection of people on the reference plane becomes a search for regions of local maxima in the accumulator. Many false positives are filtered by checking the visibility consistency of the detected candidates against all camera views. The remaining candidates are tracked using Kalman filters and appearance models. Experimental results using challenging data from PETS`06 show good performance of the method in the presence of severe occlusion. Ground truth data also confirms the robustness of the method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Instability of equilibrium points of some Lagrangian systems

In this work we show that, if L is a natural Lagrangian system such that the k-jet of the potential energy ensures it does not have a minimum at the equilibrium and such that its Hessian has rank at least n - 2, then there is an asymptotic trajectory to the associated equilibrium point and so the equilibrium is unstable. This applies, in particular, to analytic potentials with a saddle point and a Hessian with at most 2 null eigenvalues. The result is proven for Lagrangians in a specific form, and we show that the class of Lagrangians we are interested can be taken into this specific form by a subtle change of spatial coordinates. We also consider the extension of this results to systems subjected to gyroscopic forces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.