Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

FibroTest is an independent predictor of virologic response in chronic hepatitis C patients retreated with pegylated interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin in the EPIC(3) program

Background & Aims: EPIC-3 is a prospective, international study that has demonstrated the efficacy of PEG-IFN alfa-2b plus weight-based ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C and significant fibrosis who previously failed any interferon-alfa/ribavirin therapy. The aim of the present study was to assess FibroTest (FT), a validated non-invasive marker of fibrosis in treatment-naive patients, as a possible alternative to biopsy as the baseline predictor of subsequent early virologic (EVR) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in previously treated patients. Methods: Of 2312 patients enrolled, 1459 had an available baseline FT, biopsy, and complete data. Uni- (UV) and multi-variable (MV) analyses were performed using FT and biopsy. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar as in the overall population; METAVIR stage: 28% F2, 29% F3, and 43% F4, previous relapsers 29%, previous PEG-IFN regimen 41%, high baseline viral load (BVL) 64%. 506 patients (35%) had undetectable HCV-RNA at TW12 (TW12neg), with 58% achieving SVR. The accuracy of FT was similar to that in naive patients: AUROC curve for the diagnosis of F4 vs F2 = 0.80 (p<0.00001). Five baseline factors were associated (p<0.001) with SVR in UV and MV analyses (odds ratio: UV/MV): fibrosis stage estimated using FT (4.5/5.9) or biopsy (1.5/1.6), genotype 2/3 (4.5/5.1), BVL (1.5/1.3), prior relapse (1.6/1.6), previous treatment with non-PEG-IFN (2.6/2.0). These same factors were associated (p <= 0.001) with EVR. Among patients TW12neg, two independent factors remained highly predictive of SVR by MV analysis (p <= 0.001): genotype 2/3 (odds ratio = 2.9), fibrosis estimated with FT (4.3) or by biopsy (1.5). Conclusions: FibroTest at baseline is a possible non-invasive alternative to biopsy for the prediction of EVR at 12 weeks and SVR, in patients with previous failures and advanced fibrosis, retreated with PEG-IFN alfa-2b and ribavirin. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

Slower rescue of ER homeostasis by the unfolded protein response pathway associated with common variable immunodeficiency

Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia and recurrent infections. Herein we addressed the role of unfolded protein response (UPR) in the pathogenesis of the disease. Augmented unspliced X-box binding protein 1 (XBP-1) mRNA concurrent with co-localization of IgM and BiP/GRP78 were found in one CVID patient. At confocal microscopy analysis this patient`s cells were enlarged and failed to present the typical surface distribution of IgM, which accumulated within an abnormally expanded endoplasmic reticulum. Sequencing did not reveal any mutation on XBP-1, neither on IRE-1 alpha that could potentially prevent the splicing to occur. Analysis of spliced XBP-1, IRE-1 alpha and BiP messages after LPS or Brefeldin A treatment showed that, unlike healthy controls that respond to these endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stressors by presenting waves of transcription of these three genes, this patient`s cells presented lower rates of transcription, not reaching the same level of response of healthy subjects even after 48 h of ER stress. Treatment with DMSO rescued IgM and IgG secretion as well as the expression of spliced XBP-1. Our findings associate diminished splicing of XBP-1 mRNA with accumulation of IgM within the ER and lower rates of chaperone transcription, therefore providing a mechanism to explain the observed hypogammaglobulinemia. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of the Enzymatic Interesterification of Milk Fat and Canola Oil Blends Using Immobilized Rhizopus oryzae Lipase by Response Surface Methodology

Blends of milk fat and canola oil (MF:CNO) were enzymatically interesterified (EIE) by Rhizopus oryzne lipase immobilized on polysiloxane-polyvinyl alcohol (SiO(2)-PVA) composite, in a solvent-free system. A central composite design (CCD) was used to optimize the reaction, considering the effects of different mass fractions of binary blends of MF:CNO (50:50, 65:35 and 80:20) and temperatures (45, 55 and 65 degrees C) on the composition and texture properties of the interesterified products, taking the interesterification degree (ID) and consistency (at 10 degrees C) as response variables. For the ID variable both mass fraction of milk fat in the blend and temperature were found to be significant, while for the consistency only mass fraction of milk fat was significant. Empiric models for ID and consistency were obtained that allowed establishing the best interesterification conditions: blend with 65 % of milk fat and 35 %, of canola oil, and temperature of 45 degrees C. Under these conditions, the ID was 19.77 %) and the consistency at 10 degrees C was 56 290 Pa. The potential of this eco-friendly process demonstrated that a product could be obtained with the desirable milk fat flavour and better spreadability under refrigerated conditions.

Analysis of the effects of conical indentation variables on the indentation response of elastic-plastic materials through factorial design of experiment

In this work, the effects of conical indentation variables on the load-depth indentation curves were analyzed using finite element modeling and dimensional analysis. A factorial design 2(6) was used with the aim of quantifying the effects of the mechanical properties of the indented material and of the indenter geometry. Analysis was based on the input variables Y/E, R/h(max), n, theta, E, and h(max). The dimensional variables E and h(max) were used such that each value of dimensionless Y/E was obtained with two different values of E and each value of dimensionless R/h(max) was obtained with two different h(max) values. A set of dimensionless functions was defined to analyze the effect of the input variables: Pi(1) = P(1)/Eh(2), Pi(2) = h(c)/h, Pi(3) = H/Y, Pi(4) = S/Eh(max), Pi(6) = h(max)/h(f) and Pi(7) = W(P)/W(T). These six functions were found to depend only on the dimensionless variables studied (Y/E, R/h(max), n, theta). Another dimension less function, Pi(5) = beta, was not well defined for most of the dimensionless variables and the only variable that provided a significant effect on beta was theta. However, beta showed a strong dependence on the fraction of the data selected to fit the unloading curve, which means that beta is especially Susceptible to the error in the Calculation of the initial unloading slope.

Transcriptional profiling reveals the expression of novel genes in response to various stimuli in the human dermatophyte Trichophyton rubrum

Background: Cutaneous mycoses are common human infections among healthy and immunocompromised hosts, and the anthropophilic fungus Trichophyton rubrum is the most prevalent microorganism isolated from such clinical cases worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the transcriptional profile of T. rubrum exposed to various stimuli in order to obtain insights into the responses of this pathogen to different environmental challenges. Therefore, we generated an expressed sequence tag (EST) collection by constructing one cDNA library and nine suppression subtractive hybridization libraries. Results: The 1388 unigenes identified in this study were functionally classified based on the Munich Information Center for Protein Sequences (MIPS) categories. The identified proteins were involved in transcriptional regulation, cellular defense and stress, protein degradation, signaling, transport, and secretion, among other functions. Analysis of these unigenes revealed 575 T. rubrum sequences that had not been previously deposited in public databases. Conclusion: In this study, we identified novel T. rubrum genes that will be useful for ORF prediction in genome sequencing and facilitating functional genome analysis. Annotation of these expressed genes revealed metabolic adaptations of T. rubrum to carbon sources, ambient pH shifts, and various antifungal drugs used in medical practice. Furthermore, challenging T. rubrum with cytotoxic drugs and ambient pH shifts extended our understanding of the molecular events possibly involved in the infectious process and resistance to antifungal drugs.

Response surface methodology as an approach to determine optimal activities of lipase entrapped in sol-gel matrix using different vegetable oils

The conditions for maximization of the enzymatic activity of lipase entrapped in sol-gel matrix were determined for different vegetable oils using an experimental design. The effects of pH, temperature, and biocatalyst loading on lipase activity were verified using a central composite experimental design leading to a set of 13 assays and the surface response analysis. For canola oil and entrapped lipase, statistical analyses showed significant effects for pH and temperature and also the interactions between pH and temperature and temperature and biocatalyst loading. For the olive oil and entrapped lipase, it was verified that the pH was the only variable statistically significant. This study demonstrated that response surface analysis is a methodology appropriate for the maximization of the percentage of hydrolysis, as a function of pH, temperature, and lipase loading.

On the compressive strength prediction for concrete masonry prisms

The results of a combined experimental program and numerical modeling program to evaluate the behavior of ungrouted hollow concrete blocks prisms under uniaxial compression are addressed. In the numerical program, three distinct approaches have been considered using a continuum model with a smeared approach, namely plane-stress, plane-strain and three-dimensional conditions. The response of the numerical simulations is compared with experimental data of masonry prisms using concrete blocks specifically designed for this purpose. The elastic and inelastic parameters were acquired from laboratory tests on concrete and mortar samples that constitute the blocks and the bed joint of the prisms. The results from the numerical simulations are discussed with respect to the ability to reproduce the global response of the experimental tests, and with respect to the failure behavior obtained. Good agreement between experimental and numerical results was found for the peak load and for the failure mode using the three-dimensional model, on four different sets of block/mortar types. Less good agreement was found for plain stress and plain strain models.

Test procedure for variable rate fertilizer on coffee

The objective was to develop and test a procedure for applying variable rates of fertilizers and evaluate yield response in coffee (Coffea arabica L.) with regard to the application of phosphorus and potassium. The work was conducted during the 2004 season in a 6.4 ha field located in central Sao Paulo state. Two treatments were applied with alternating strips of fixed and variable rates during the whole season: one following the fertilizing procedures recommended locally, and the other based on a grid soil sampling. A prototype pneumatic fertilizer applicator was used, carrying two conveyor belts, one for each row. Harvesting was done with a commercial harvester equipped with a customized volumetric yield monitor, separating the two treatments. Data were analyzed based on geostatistics, correlations and regressions. The procedure showed to be feasible and effective. The area that received fertilizer applications at a variable rate showed a 34% yield increase compared to the area that received a fixed rate. The variable rate fertilizer resulted in a savings of 23% in phosphate fertilizer and a 13% increase in potassium fertilizer, when compared to fixed rate fertilizer. Yield in 2005, the year after the variable rate treatments, still presented residual effect from treatments carried out during the previous cycle.

Allergic asthma in patients with common variable immunodeficiency

P>Background: Many patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) have a clinical history suggestive of allergic respiratory disease. However, in such individuals, the prevalence of asthma and the role of atopy have not been well established. The objective of this study was to evaluate pulmonary function and identify asthma in patients with CVID. We also investigated the role of IgE as a trigger of asthma in these patients. Methods: Sixty-two patients diagnosed with CVID underwent spirometry, as well as skin prick testing and in vitro determination of serum-specific IgE levels for aeroallergens, together with bronchial provocation with histamine and allergen. Results: The most common alteration identified through spirometry was obstructive lung disease, which was observed in 29 (47.5%) of the 62 patients evaluated. Eighteen (29.0%) of the 62 patients had a clinical history suggestive of allergic asthma. By the end of the study, asthma had been diagnosed in nine (14.5%) patients and atopy had been identified in six (9.7%). In addition, allergic asthma had been diagnosed in four patients (6.5% of the sample as a whole; 22.2% of the 18 patients with a clinical history suggestive of the diagnosis). Conclusion: In this study, CVID patients testing negative for specific IgE antibodies and suspected of having allergic asthma presented a positive response to bronchial provocation tests with allergens. To our knowledge, this is the first such study. When CVID patients with a history suggestive of allergic asthma test negative on traditional tests, additional tests designed to identify allergic asthma might be conducted.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The need for effective radiosentitizing agents: experience in patients with complete pathological response

Chemoradiation therapy is now considered the preferred initial treatment strategy for distal rectal cancer because of the observation of better local disease control and significant tumor downstaging. Downstaging has become an important clinical outcome as patients with complete pathological response are associated with improved survival. Even though radiation alone may result in low local recurrence rates, the use of additional radiosensitizing agents may provide an increase in local disease control in addition to improved tumor regression rates. Several compounds have been investigated in the setting of neoadjuvant multimodality treatment of rectal cancer with variable rates of treatment-related toxicity and complete pathological response. The balance between complete pathological response and toxicity should aid in the management decision for the use of radiosensitizing agents in the neoadjuvant setting for the treatment of rectal cancer. Anti-Cancer Drugs 22: 308-310 (C) 2011 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

The impact of trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder on the treatment response of patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Few case series studies have addressed the issue of treatment response in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and comorbid post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and there are no prospective studies addressing response to conventional treatment in OCD patients with a history of trauma (HT). The present study aimed to investigate, prospectively, the impact of HT or PTSD on two systematic, first-line treatments for OCD. Two hundred and nineteen non-treatment-resistant OCD outpatients were treated with either group cognitive-behavioral therapy (GCBT n = 147) or monotherapy with a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI n = 72). Presence of HT and PTSD were assessed at intake, as part of a broader clinical and demographical baseline characterization of the sample. Severity and types of OCD symptoms were assessed with the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (YBOCS) and the Dimensional YBOCS (DYBOCS), respectively. Depression and anxiety symptoms were measured with the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI). Both treatments had 12-week duration. Treatment response was considered as a categorical [35% or greater reduction in baseline YBOCS scores plus a Clinical Global Impression-Improvement rating of better (2) or much better (1)] and continuous variable (absolute number reduction in baseline YBOCS scores). Treatment response was compared between the OCD + HT group versus the OCD without HT group and between the OCD + PTSD group versus the OCD without PTSD group. Parametric and non-parametric tests were used when indicated. Data on HT and PTSD were available for 215 subjects. Thirty-eight subjects (17.67% of the whole sample) had a positive HT (OCD + HT group) and 22 subjects (57.89% of the OCD + HT group and 10.23% of the whole sample) met full DSM-IV criteria for PTSD. The OCD + HT and OCD without HT groups presented similar response to GCBT (60% of responders in the first group and 63% of responders in the second group, p = 1.00). Regarding SSRI treatment, the difference between the response of the OCD + HT (47.4%) and OCD without HT (22.2%) groups was marginally significant (p = 0.07). In addition, the OCD + PTSD group presented a greater treatment response than the OCD without PTSD group when treatment response was considered as a continuous variable (p = 0.01). The age when the first trauma occurred had no impact on treatment response. In terms of specific OCD symptom dimensions, as measured by the DYBOCS, OCD treatment fostered greater reductions for the OCD + PTSD group than for the OCD without PTSD group in the scores of contamination obsessions and cleaning compulsions, collecting and hoarding and miscellaneous obsessions and related compulsions (including illness concerns and mental rituals, among others). The OCD + PTSD group also presented a greater reduction in anxiety scores than the OCD without PTSD group (p = 0.003). The presence of HT or PTSD was not related to a poorer treatment response in this sample of non-treatment-resistant OCD patients. Unexpectedly, OCD patients with PTSD presented a greater magnitude of response when compared with OCD without PTSD patients in specific OCD symptom dimensions. Future studies are needed to clarify if trauma and PTSD have a more significant impact on the onset and clinical expression of OCD than on the conventional treatment for this condition, and whether OCD stemming from trauma would constitute a subtype of OCD with a distinct response to conventional treatment.

The prednisolone suppression test in depression: Dose-response and changes with antidepressant treatment

Depressed patients have reduced glucocorticoid receptor (GR) function, as demonstrated by resistance to the suppressive effects of the synthetic glucocorticoid hormone, and GR agonist, dexamethasone. We have developed a suppressive test with prednisolone, a synthetic glucocorticoid that is similar to cortisol in its pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics, and binds to both the GR and the mineralocorticoid receptor (MR). We have found that depressed patients suppress normally to prednisolone, unless they are particularly non-responsive to treatment. In the present study, we evaluated 28 inpatients with treatment-resistant depression (TRD), and compared salivary cortisol secretion (at 0900 h, 1200 h and 1700 h) after placebo or after prednisolone (5 mg), before and after an inpatient treatment admission. Half of the patients (n = 14) reached treatment response. When comparing the assessment between admission and discharge, cortisol output after placebo fell (-26% of area under the curve; p = 0.024) while the output after prednisolone did not change. Moreover, there was no change in the response to prednisolone (percentage suppression) between admission at discharge, and this was not influenced by treatment response. Finally, we could confirm and extend our previously published data with prednisolone (5 mg), showing that depressed patients (n = 12) and controls (n = 12) suppressed equally to both 5 and 10 mg doses of prednisolone. This study suggests that the response to prednisolone is similar in depressed patients and controls at different doses of prednisolone, and does not change with symptomatic improvement. This is in contrast with findings, from us and others, using other measures of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function, such as basal cortisol levels or the response to dexamethasone. Thus, we propose that the prednisolone suppression test may offer specific biological and clinical information, related to its action at both the GR and the MR. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.