Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

Coronary Artery Stenoses: Accuracy of 64-Detector Row CT Angiography in Segments with Mild, Moderate, or Severe Calcification-A Subanalysis of the CORE-64 Trial

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of cross-sectional arc calcification on the diagnostic accuracy of computed tomography (CT) angiography compared with conventional coronary angiography for the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and Methods: Institutional Review Board approval and written informed consent were obtained from all centers and participants for this HIPAA-compliant study. Overall, 4511 segments from 371 symptomatic patients (279 men, 92 women; median age, 61 years [interquartile range, 53-67 years]) with clinical suspicion of CAD from the CORE-64 multi-center study were included in the analysis. Two independent blinded observers evaluated the percentage of diameter stenosis and the circumferential extent of calcium (arc calcium). The accuracy of quantitative multidetector CT angiography to depict substantial (>50%) stenoses was assessed by using quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). Cross-sectional arc calcium was rated on a segment level as follows: noncalcified or mild (<90 degrees), moderate (90 degrees-180 degrees), or severe (>180 degrees) calcification. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression, receiver operation characteristic curve, and clustering methods were used for statistical analyses. Results: A total of 1099 segments had mild calcification, 503 had moderate calcification, 338 had severe calcification, and 2571 segments were noncalcified. Calcified segments were highly associated (P < .001) with disagreement between CTA and QCA in multivariable analysis after controlling for sex, age, heart rate, and image quality. The prevalence of CAD was 5.4% in noncalcified segments, 15.0% in mildly calcified segments, 27.0% in moderately calcified segments, and 43.0% in severely calcified segments. A significant difference was found in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (noncalcified: 0.86, mildly calcified: 0.85, moderately calcified: 0.82, severely calcified: 0.81; P < .05). Conclusion: In a symptomatic patient population, segment-based coronary artery calcification significantly decreased agreement between multidetector CT angiography and QCA to detect a coronary stenosis of at least 50%.

Common mental disorders during pregnancy and adverse obstetric outcomes

Methods. A prospective cohort study was conducted with 831 pregnant women from antenatal clinics in primary healthcare in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The clinical interview schedule-revised and demographic questionnaires were administered between the 20th and 30th weeks of gestation. Information on infant weight and gestational age at birth were obtained from hospital records. Univariate analyses were used to examine the association between the main exposure and main outcomes. Statistical associations were examined with chimultivariable logistic regression model. Results. The prevalence of CMD during gestation was 33.6 (95% CI: 30.4-36.9). The follow-up rate was 99.5%. Sixty three (7.6%) newborns were classified as LBW and 56 (6.9%) were classified as PTB. CMD during pregnancy was not associated with risk of PTB (adjusted OR:1.03, 95% CI: 0.57-1.88) or LBW (adjusted OR:1.09, 95% CI: 0.62-1.91). Conclusions. CMD prevalence is high among low-income and low-risk pregnant women attended by public health services in a middle-income country, but not confer an increased risk for adverse obstetric outcome.

Residuals for log-Burr XII regression models in survival analysis

In this paper, we compare three residuals to assess departures from the error assumptions as well as to detect outlying observations in log-Burr XII regression models with censored observations. These residuals can also be used for the log-logistic regression model, which is a special case of the log-Burr XII regression model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to the modified martingale-type residual in log-Burr XII regression models with censored data.

Association between ADAMTS13 polymorphisms and risk of cardiovascular events in chronic coronary disease

Introduction: Association between ADAMTS13 levels and cardiovascular events has been described recently. However, no genetic study of ADAMTS13 in coronary patients has been described. Materials and Methods: Based on related populations frequencies and functional studies, we tested three ADAMTS13 polymorphisms: C1342G (Q448E), C1852G (P618A) and C2699T (A900V) in a group of 560 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function. The incidence of the 5-year end-points of death and death from cardiac causes, myocardial infarction, refractory angina requiring revascularization and cerebrovascular accident was determined for each polymorphim`s allele, genotype and haplotype. Risk was assessed with the use of logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazards model and multivariable adjustment was employed for possible confounders. Results: Clinical characteristics and received treatment of each genotype group were similar at baseline. In an adjusted model for cardiovascular risk variables, we were able to observe a significant association between ADAMTS13 900V variant and an increased risk of death (OR: 1,92 CI: 1,14-3,23, p = 0,015) or death from cardiac cause (OR: 2,67, CI: 1,59-4,49, p = 0,0009). No association between events and ADAMTS13 Q448E or P618A was observed. Conclusions: This first report studying the association between ADAMTS13 genotypes and cardiovascular events provides evidence for the association between ADAMTS13 900V variant and an increased risk of death in a population with multi-vessel CAD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Factors for Positive Surgical Margins and Their Locations After Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Positive surgical margin (PSM) after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been shown to be an independent predictive factor for cancer recurrence. Several investigations have correlated clinical and histopathologic findings with surgical margin status after open RP. However, few studies have addressed the predictive factors for PSM after robot-assisted laparoscopic RP (RARP). Objective: We sought to identify predictive factors for PSMs and their locations after RARP. Design, setting, and participants: We prospectively analyzed 876 consecutive patients who underwent RARP from January 2008 to May 2009. Intervention: All patients underwent RARP performed by a single surgeon with previous experience of > 1500 cases. Measurements: Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify potential predictive factors for PSM. Three logistic regression models were built: (1) one using preoperative variables only, (2) another using all variables (preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative) combined, and (3) one created to identify potential predictive factors for PSM location. Preoperative variables entered into the models included age, body mass index (BMI), prostate-specific antigen, clinical stage, number of positive cores, percentage of positive cores, and American Urological Association symptom score. Intra-and postoperative variables analyzed were type of nerve sparing, presence of median lobe, percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen, gland size, histopathologic findings, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason grade. Results and limitations: In the multivariable analysis including preoperative variables, clinical stage was the only independent predictive factor for PSM, with a higher PSM rate for T3 versus T1c (odds ratio [OR]: 10.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-43.8) and for T2 versus T1c (OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6). Considering pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined, percentage of tumor, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason score were associated with increased risk of PSM in the univariable analysis (p < 0.001 for all variables). However, in the multivariable analysis, pathologic stage (pT2 vs pT1; OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6) and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen (OR: 8.7; 95% CI, 2.2-34.5; p = 0.0022) were the only independent predictive factors for PSM. Finally, BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor(OR: 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; p = 0.0119) for apical PSMs, with increasing BMI predicting higher incidence of apex location. Because most of our patients were referred from other centers, the biopsy technique and the number of cores were not standardized in our series. Conclusions: Clinical stage was the only preoperative variable independently associated with PSM after RARP. Pathologic stage and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen were identified as independent predictive factors for PSMs when analyzing pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined. BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor for apical PSMs. (C) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Pentafecta: A New Concept for Reporting Outcomes of Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Widespread use of prostate-specific antigen screening has resulted in younger and healthier men being diagnosed with prostate cancer. Their demands and expectations of surgical intervention are much higher and cannot be adequately addressed with the classic trifecta outcome measures. Objective: A new and more comprehensive method for reporting outcomes after radical prostatectomy, the pentafecta, is proposed. Design, setting, and participants: From January 2008 through September 2009, details of 1111 consecutive patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy performed by a single surgeon were retrospectively analyzed. Of 626 potent men, 332 who underwent bilateral nerve sparing and who had 1 yr of follow-up were included in the study group. Measurements: In addition to the traditional trifecta outcomes, two perioperative variables were included in the pentafecta: no postoperative complications and negative surgical margins. Patients who attained the trifecta and concurrently the two additional outcomes were considered as having achieved the pentafecta. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate independent factors for achieving the pentafecta. Results and limitations: Continence, potency, biochemical recurrence-free survival, and trifecta rates at 12 mo were 96.4%, 89.8%, 96.4%, and 83.1%, respectively. With regard to the perioperative outcomes, 93.4% had no postoperative complication and 90.7% had negative surgical margins. The pentafecta rate at 12 mo was 70.8%. On multivariable analysis, patient age (p = 0.001) was confirmed as the only factor independently associated with the pentafecta. Conclusions: A more comprehensive approach for reporting prostate surgery outcomes, the pentafecta, is being proposed. We believe that pentafecta outcomes more accurately represent patients` expectations after minimally invasive surgery for prostate cancer. This approach may be beneficial and may be used when counseling patients with clinically localized disease. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Presence of MRI-detected joint effusion and synovitis increases the risk of cartilage loss in knees without osteoarthritis at 30-month follow-up: the MOST study

Objective To evaluate if two different measures of synovial activation, baseline Hoffa synovitis and effusion synovitis, assessed by MRI, predict cartilage loss in the tibiofemoral joint at 30 months follow-up in subjects with neither cartilage damage nor tibiofemoral radiographic osteoarthritis of the knee. Methods Non-contrast-enhanced MRI was performed using proton density-weighted fat-suppressed sequences in the axial and sagittal planes and a short tau inversion recovery sequence in the coronal plane. Hoffa synovitis, effusion synovitis and cartilage status were assessed semiquantitatively according to the WORMS scoring system. Included were knees that had neither radiographic osteoarthritis nor MRI-detected tibiofemoral cartilage damage at the baseline visit. The presence of Hoffa synovitis was defined as any grade = 2 (range 0-3) and effusion synovitis as any grade = 2 (range 0-3). Logistic regression was performed to examine the relation of the presence of either measure to the risk of cartilage loss at 30 months adjusting for other potential confounders. Results Of 514 knees included in the analysis, the prevalence of Hoffa synovitis and effusion synovitis at the baseline visit was 8.4% and 10.3%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, baseline effusion synovitis was associated with an increased risk of cartilage loss. No such association was observed for baseline Hoffa synovitis. Conclusions Baseline effusion synovitis, but not Hoffa synovitis, predicted cartilage loss. The findings suggest that effusion synovitis, a reflection of inflammatory activity including joint effusion and synovitic thickening, may play a role in the future development of cartilage lesions in knees without osteoarthritis.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking patterns related to the prevalence of anterior open bite in primary dentition

OBJECTIVE: Nutritional, immunological and psychological benefts of exclusive breastfeeding for the frst 6 months of life are unequivocally recognized. However, mothers should also be aware of the importance of breastfeeding for promoting adequate oral development. This study evaluated the association between breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking patterns and the prevalence of anterior open bite in primary dentition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Infant feeding and non-nutritive sucking were investigated in a 3-6 year-old sample of 1,377 children, from São Paulo city, Brazil. Children were grouped according to breastfeeding duration: G1 - non-breastfed, G2 - shorter than 6 months, G3 - interruption between 6 and 12 months, and G4 - longer than 12 months. Three calibrated dentists performed clinical examinations and classifed overbite into 3 categories: normal, anterior open bite and deep bite. Chi-square tests (p<0.05) with odds ratio (OR) calculation were used for intergroup comparisons. The impact of breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking on the prevalence of anterior open bite was analyzed using binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates of anterior open bite were: 31.9% (G1), 26.1% (G2), 22.1% (G3), and 6.2% (G4). G1 would have signifcantly more chances of having anterior open bite compared with G4; in the total sample (OR=7.1) and in the subgroup without history of non-nutritive sucking (OR=9.3). Prolonging breastfeeding for 12 months was associated with a 3.7 times lower chance of having anterior open bite. In each year of persistence with non-nutritive sucking habits, the chance of developing this malocclusion increased in 2.38 times. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking durations demonstrated opposite effects on the prediction of anterior open bite. Non-breastfed children presented signifcantly greater chances of having anterior open bite compared with those who were breastfed for periods longer than 12 months, demonstrating the benefcial infuence of breastfeeding on dental occlusion.

Self-perception and malocclusion and their relation to oral appearance and function

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between malocclusion and self-perception of oral appearance/function, in 12/15-year-old Brazilian adolescents. The cluster sample consisted of 717 teenagers attending 24 urban public (n=611) and 5 rural public (n=107) schools in Maringá/PR. Malocclusion was measured using the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI), in accordance with WHO recommendations. A parental questionnaire was applied to collect information on esthetic perception level and oral variables related to oral health. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. Multiple logistic regression confirmed that for 12-year-old, missing teeth (OR=2.865) and presence of openbite (open occlusal relationship) (OR=2.865) were risk indicators for speech capability. With regard to 15-year-old, presence of mandibular overjet (horizontal overlap) (OR=4.016) was a risk indicator for speech capability and molar relationship (OR=1.661) was a risk indicator for chewing capability. The impact of malocclusion on adolescents' life was confirmed in this study. Speech and chewing capability were associated with orthodontic deviations, which should be taken into consideration in oral health planning, to identify risk groups and improve community health services.

Diagnostic and clinical factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain

A retrospective survey was designed to identify diagnostic subgroups and clinical factors associated with odontogenic pain and discomfort in dental urgency patients. A consecutive sample of 1,765 patients seeking treatment for dental pain at the Urgency Service of the Dental School of the Federal University of Goiás, Brazil, was selected. Inclusion criteria were pulpal or periapical pain that occurred before dental treatment (minimum 6 months after the last dental appointment), and the exclusion criteria were teeth with odontogenic developmental anomalies and missing information or incomplete records. Clinical and radiographic examinations were performed to assess clinical presentation of pain complaints including origin, duration, frequency and location of pain, palpation, percussion and vitality tests, radiographic features, endodontic diagnosis and characteristics of teeth. Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze association between pulpal and periapical pain and independent variables. The most frequent endodontic diagnosis of pulpal pain were symptomatic pulpitis (28.3%) and hyperreactive pulpalgia (14.4%), and the most frequent periapical pain was symptomatic apical periodontitis of infectious origin (26.4%). Regression analysis revealed that closed pulp chamber and caries were highly associated with pulpal pain and, conversely, open pulp chamber was associated with periapical pain (p<0.001). Endodontic diagnosis and local factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain suggest that the important clinical factor of pulpal pain was closed pulp chamber and caries, and of periapical pain was open pulp chamber.

Hábitos de sucção não nutritiva em crianças pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Verificar a prevalência e os fatores associados aos hábitos de sucção não nutritiva em crianças pré-escolares matriculadas em creches e pré-escolas de Natal (RN). MÉTODOS: Foi conduzido um estudo transversal com 1.190 crianças de ambos os sexos na faixa etária de 3 a 5 anos, matriculadas em creches e pré-escolas de Natal. Não foram incluídas no estudo crianças com fendas labiopalatinas, desordens temporomandibulares, ou aquelas submetidas a tratamento ortodôntico e/ou ortopédico; também não fizeram parte da amostra instituições de ensino especializadas em crianças portadoras de deficiência. Utilizou-se um questionário estruturado, respondido pelos pais ou responsável, com dados sobre a instituição, sexo e idade das crianças, escolaridade dos pais e questões relacionadas aos hábitos. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do teste do qui-quadrado e a regressão logística. RESULTADOS: Obteve-se prevalência de 40,2% de hábitos de sucção não nutritiva, dos quais 27,7% eram de sucção de chupeta e 12,5% de dedo. Os hábitos de sucção apresentaram maior percentual para o sexo feminino, destacando-se a sucção de dedo (p = 0,02); em crianças com menos idade destacou-se a sucção de chupeta (p = 0,0006). Observou-se maior frequência de sucção de chupeta e de dedo, respectivamente, para o nível superior (p < 0,05) e fundamental (p < 0,05) de escolaridade dos pais. A regressão logística demonstrou que a menor idade dos indivíduos (p = 0,033) e o nível médio de escolaridade dos pais (p = 0,035) são fatores independentes para a persistência dos hábitos. CONCLUSÃO: Verificou-se uma alta prevalência de realização dos hábitos de sucção não nutritiva, apresentando como fatores de destaque a menor idade das crianças e o nível médio de escolaridade dos pais.

Bottle feeding, increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship: is there any association?

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between bottle feeding and prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship. The sample consisted of 911 children (461 boys, 450 girls) aged 3 (13.9%), 4 (40.8%), 5 (34%) and 6 (11.3%) years, with complete primary dentition. Information about nutritive and nonnutritive (pacifier and/or digit) sucking habits was collected through questionnaires. Three calibrated dentists (κ: 0.9-1.0 and Rs > 0.90) performed the clinical assessments. The children were divided into four groups: G1 - not bottle-fed; G2 - exclusively bottle-fed; G3 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased before 3 years of age; and G4 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased between 3 and 4 years of age. Associations between nutritive and nonnutritive sucking behaviors and the malocclusions studied were analyzed by multiple binary logistic regression (α= 0.05). The frequencies of increased overjet were: 25.3% (G1), 38.8% (G2), 39.2% (G3) and 47.8% (G4). The percentages of Class 2 canine relationship were: 27.9% (G1), 48.8% (G2), 43.4% (G3) and 43% (G4). No significant effect of bottle feeding was found. The chances of diagnosing increased overjet (O.R. = 4.42, p < 0.001) and Class 2 canine relationship (O.R. = 4.02, p < 0.001) were greater for children with pacifier and/or digit-sucking habits, compared to those without a history of nonnutritive sucking behavior. It may be suggested that bottle feeding alone is not directly associated with higher prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 canine relationship in the primary dentition.

Wives of pathological gamblers: personality traits, depressive symptoms and social adjustment

Objective: Wives of pathological gamblers tend to endure long marriages despite financial and emotional burden. Difficulties in social adjustment, personality psychopathology, and comorbidity with psychiatric disorders are pointed as reasons for remaining on such overwhelming relationships. The goal was to examine the social adjustment, personality and negative emotionality of wives of pathological gamblers. Method: The sample consisted of 25 wives of pathological gamblers, mean age 40.6, SD = 9.1 from a Gambling Outpatient Unit and at GAM-ANON, and 25 wives of non-gamblers, mean age 40.8, SD = 9.1, who answered advertisements placed at the Universidade de São Paulo hospital and medical school complex. They were selected in order to approximately match demographic characteristics of the wives of pathological gamblers. Subjects were assessed by the Social Adjustment Scale, Temperament and Character Inventory, Beck Depression Inventory and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Results: Three variables remained in the final Multiple Logistic Regression model, wives of pathological gamblers presented greater dissatisfaction with their marital bond, and higher scores on Reward Dependence and Persistence temperament factors. Both, Wives of pathological gamblers and wives of non-gamblers presented well-structured character factors excluding personality disorders. Conclusion: This personality profile may explain wives of pathological gamblers emotional resilience and their marriage longevity. Co-dependence and other labels previously used to describe them may work as a double edged sword, legitimating wives of pathological gamblers problems, while stigmatizing them as inapt and needy.