Inferential Implications of Over-Parametrization: A Case Study in Incomplete Categorical Data

P>In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over-parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior-dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over-parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior-dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over-parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.Resume Que ce soit dans un cadre Bayesien ou classique, il est bien connu que la surparametrisation, dans les modeles pour donnees categorielles incompletes, peut conduire a des conclusions erronees. Cependant, certains auteurs persistent a negliger les problemes lies a la presence de parametres non identifies. Nous passons en revue la litterature dans ce domaine, et considerons quelques exemples surparametres simples dans lesquels les elements subjectifs influencent de facon non negligeable les resultats, independamment de la taille des echantillons. Plus precisement, nous montrons comment des a priori consideres comme peu ou non-informatifs peuvent se reveler extremement informatifs en ce qui concerne les parametres non identifies, et que le recours a des modeles surparametres peut avoir sur les conclusions finales un impact considerable. Ceci suggere un examen tres attentif de l`impact potentiel des a priori.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

Categorization skills and recall in brain damaged children: a multiple case study

During development, children become capable of categorically associating stimuli and of using these relationships for memory recall. Brain damage in childhood can interfere with this development. This study investigated categorical association of stimuli and recall in four children with brain damages. The etiology, topography and timing of the lesions were diverse. Tasks included naming and immediate recall of 30 perceptually and semantically related figures, free sorting, delayed recall, and cued recall of the same material. Traditional neuropsychological tests were also employed. Two children with brain damage sustained in middle childhood relied on perceptual rather than on categorical associations in making associations between figures and showed deficits in delayed or cued recall, in contrast to those with perinatal lesions. One child exhibited normal performance in recall despite categorical association deficits. The present results suggest that brain damaged children show deficits in categorization and recall that are not usually identified in traditional neuropsychological tests.

Saúde e capacidade para o trabalho de eletricitários do Estado de São Paulo

Apesar dos elevados riscos à saúde e capacidade para o trabalho dos eletricitários, há carência de estudos sobre o tema no Brasil. O objetivo desse estudo é identificar o perfil de saúde e capacidade para o trabalho de eletricitários de São Paulo. Foi feito um estudo transversal junto a 475 trabalhadores de uma empresa do setor eletricitário. A coleta de dados foi por meio de questionários sobre capacidade para o trabalho, estado de saúde, estresse no trabalho, atividade física, dependência ao tabaco e ao álcool. A consistência interna das escalas foi avaliada usando o coeficiente alfa de Cronbach. Foi feita análise descritiva por meio das médias, desvios-padrão, valores mínimos e máximos dos escores e proporções para as variáveis qualitativas. O estado de saúde dos trabalhadores apresentou pontuação elevada nas dimensões analisadas, com médias entre 72,8 a 91,2 (escore de 0,0 a 100,0 pontos). A capacidade para o trabalho teve pontuação elevada, com média de 41,8 (escore de 7,0 a 49,0 pontos). Concluiu-se que os trabalhadores da população de estudo apresentaram elevados padrões do estado de saúde e da capacidade para o trabalho. Sugere-se o desenvolvimento de estudos longitudinais para avaliar relações causais e a existência de efeito do trabalhador sadio.

Reflexão bioética sobre a priorização e o racionamento de cuidados de saúde: entre a utilidade social e a eqüidade

Sendo as necessidades de saúde mais amplas que os recursos disponíveis, escolhas têm de ser feitas. Disto resulta ser preciso que se estabeleçam limites, critérios e parâmetros para priorizar o que vai ser ofertado e a quem os serviços e os cuidados de saúde serão oferecidos. Discute-se alternativas éticas para a priorização e racionamento de cuidados de saúde, enfocando os princípios da eqüidade e da utilidade social.

Acupuntura: motivações de médicos para a procura de especialização

Este estudo quanti-qualitativo objetivou identificar concepções sobre Medicina Convencional e Acu puntura que contribuem para entender os motivos que levam médicos a procurarem conhecer ou se especializar em Acupuntura. Foram pesquisados 175 médicos do Curso de Desenvolvimento em Me dicina Chinesa − Acupuntura, do Center-AO − Centro de Pesquisa e Estudo da Medicina Chinesa e Universidade Federal de São Paulo − Escola Paulista de Medicina (Unifesp - EPM), com questio nário composto por perguntas abertas e fechadas. Os dados obtidos foram analisados estatisticamente, e as respostas foram analisadas com a técnica de análise de conteúdo, buscando desvelar unidades de significado. A partir disso, foram estabelecidas categorias gerais e específicas, que passaram a dar significado aos discursos. Dessa forma, foram obtidos três grupos categoriais: "aprimoramento profis sional", "ampliar seu próprio horizonte de vida" e "compreender o paciente em uma dimensão mais abrangente". Nossos dados revelaram que os médicos desejam exercer a Acupuntura de forma inte grada à Medicina Convencional, no bojo da qual a Acupuntura vem se firmando como especialidade médica.

Perfil de pacientes que evoluem para óbito por tuberculose no município de São Paulo, 2002

OBJETIVO: Descrever o perfil de pacientes adultos residentes no município de São Paulo que evoluíram para óbito associado à tuberculose, segundo fatores biológicos, ambientais e institucionais. MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo, abrangendo todos os óbitos por tuberculose (N=416) ocorridos em 2002, entre maiores de 15 anos. Os dados analisados foram obtidos do Sistema Municipal de Informações de Mortalidade, prontuários hospitalares, Serviço de Verificação de Óbitos e Sistema de Vigilância de Tuberculose. Os cálculos dos riscos relativos e intervalos de confiança de 95 por cento (IC 95 por cento) tiveram como referência o sexo feminino, grupo de 15 a 29 anos, e os naturais do Estado de São Paulo. A análise comparativa usou o teste do qui-quadrado de Pearson e o exato de Fisher para variáveis categóricas e o teste Kruskal-Wallis para variáveis contínuas. RESULTADOS: Do total de óbitos, 78 por cento apresentavam a forma pulmonar; o diagnóstico foi efetuado após a morte em 30 por cento e em unidades de atendimento primário em 14 por cento dos casos; 44 por cento não iniciaram tratamento; 49 por cento não foram notificados; 76 por cento eram homens e a mediana da idade foi de 51 anos; 52 por cento tinham até quatro anos de estudo, 4 por cento eram prováveis moradores de rua. As taxas de mortalidade aumentavam com a idade, sendo de 5,0/100.000 no município, variando de zero a 35, conforme o distrito. Para 82 de 232 pacientes com registro de tratamento, havia referência de tratamento anterior, e desses, 41 o haviam abandonado. Constatou-se presença de diabetes (16 por cento), doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (19 por cento), HIV (11 por cento), tabagismo (71 por cento) e alcoolismo (64 por cento) nos pacientes. CONCLUSÕES: Homens acima de 50 anos, migrantes e residentes em distritos com baixo Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano apresentam maiores riscos de óbito. )A pouca escolaridade e apresentar co-morbidades são características importante Observou-se baixa participação das unidades básicas de saúde no diagnóstico e a elevada sub-notificação

ESPECTRA: Searching the Bipolar Spectrum in Eating Disorder patients

Background: Bipolar Disorder (BD) is a chronic, recurrent and highly prevalent illness. Despite the need for correct diagnosis to allow proper treatment, studies have shown that reaching a diagnosis can take up to ten years due to the lack of recognition of the broader presentations of BD. Frequent comorbidities with other psychiatric disorders are a major cause of misdiagnosis and warrant thorough evaluation. Methods/Design: ESPECTRA (Occurrence of Bipolar Spectrum Disorders in Eating Disorder Patients) is a single-site cross-sectional study involving a comparison group, designed to evaluate the prevalence of bipolar spectrum in an eating disorder sample. Women aged 18-45 years will be evaluated using the SCID-P and Zurich criteria for diagnosis and the HAM-D, YOUNG, SCI-MOODS, HCL-32, BIS-11, BSQ, WHOQoL and EAS instruments for rating symptoms and measuring clinical correlates. Discussion: The classificatory systems in psychiatry are based on categorical models that have been criticized for simplifying the diagnosis and leading to an increase in comorbidities. Some dimensional approaches have been proposed aimed at improving the validity and reliability of psychiatric disorder assessments, especially in conditions with high rates of comorbidity such as BD and Eating Disorder (ED). The Bipolar Spectrum (BS) remains under-recognized in clinical practice and its definition is not well established in current diagnostic guidelines. Broader evaluation of psychiatric disorders combining categorical and dimensional views could contribute to a more realistic understanding of comorbidities and help toward establishing a prognosis.

Detection of polymorphisms of the mtDNA control region of Caretta caretta (Testudines: Cheloniidae) by PCR-SSCP

Marine turtles are increasingly being threatened worldwide by anthropogenic activities. Better understanding of their life cycle, behavior and population structure is imperative for the design of adequate conservation strategies. The mtDNA control region is a fast-evolving matrilineal marker that has been employed in the study of marine turtle populations. We developed and tested a simple molecular tracing system for Caretta caretta mtDNA haplotypes by polymerase chain reaction-single strand conformation polymorphism (PCR-SSCP). Using this technique, we were able to distinguish the SSCP patterns of 18 individuals of the haplotypes CC-A4, CC-A24 and CCxLO, which are commonly found in turtles sampled on the Brazilian coast. When we analyzed 15 turtles with previously unknown sequences, we detected two other haplotypes, in addition to the other four. Based on DNA sequencing, they were identified as the CC-A17 and CC-A1 haplotypes. Further analyses were made with the sea turtles, Chelonia mydas (N = 8), Lepidochelys olivacea (N = 3) and Eretmochelys imbricata (N = 1), demonstrating that the PCR-SSCP technique is able to distinguish intra-and interspecific variation in the family Cheloniidae. We found that this technique can be useful for identifying sea turtle mtDNA haplotypes, reducing the need for sequencing.

Incidence of injuries to the lower limbs joints in kung fu athletes

Background and Study Aim: This study evaluated the influence of competitive practice and training aspects on incidence of injuries to the lower limbs joints in formalized (taolu) and combat (sanshou) kung fu athletes. Material/Methods: One hundred and twenty-seven kung fu athletes (taolu, n=82; sanshou, n=45) were interviewed about kung fu practice (practice time, competition time and competition level), training volume (days of training per week and hours per training session) and injury profiles (incidence and type). Continuous variables were compared by non-parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (disciplines and competition levels as grouping variables). The effects of categorical variables (kung fu practice) on injury profiles were analyzed using the Pearson`s chi-square test. The level of significance was set at p<0.05. Results: Our data exhibited large frequency of injury reports (70.1%) and significantly differences on injury profiles between disciplines and competition levels. Taolu athletes, despite the lower practice/competition time (-51.5 and -41.8%, respectively), presented frequency of injury reports twofold greater, longer daily training volume (23.3%) and higher incidence of lower limbs joints injuries than sanshou athletes (35.4% and 11.8%, respectively). Conclusions: Our results suggest a link between injury profiles (incidence and type) and specific characteristics of kung fu disciplines.

Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposal of a High-Level Language for Writing Self Modifying Programs

This paper proposes a simple high-level programming language, endowed with resources that help encoding self-modifying programs. With this purpose, a conventional imperative language syntax (not explicitly stated in this paper) is incremented with special commands and statements forming an adaptive layer specially designed with focus on the dynamical changes to be applied to the code at run-time. The resulting language allows programmers to easily specify dynamic changes to their own program`s code. Such a language succeeds to allow programmers to effortless describe the dynamic logic of their adaptive applications. In this paper, we describe the most important aspects of the design and implementation of such a language. A small example is finally presented for illustration purposes.

Characterization of the electrocardiographic pattern of individuals with cerebral palsy

Background: Dentists of Lar Sao Francisco observed during dental treatment that children with cerebral palsy (CP) had increased heart rate (HR) and lower production of saliva. Despite the high prevalence of CP found in the literature (2.08-3.6/1000 individuals), little is known about the electrocardiographic (ECG) characteristics, especially HR, of individuals with CP. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the hypothesis that individuals with CP have a higher HR and to define other ECG characteristics of this population. Methods: Ninety children with CP underwent clinical examination and 12-lead rest ECG. Electrocardiographic data on rhythm, HR, PR interval, QRS duration, P/QRS/T axis, and QT, QTc and T(peak-end) intervals (minimum, mean, maximum, and dispersion) were measured and analyzed then compared with data from a control group with 35 normal children. Fisher and Mann-Whitney U tests were used, respectively, to compare categorical and continuous data. Results: Groups cerebral palsy and control did not significantly differ in age (9 +/- 3 x 9 +/- 4 years) and male gender (65% x 49%). Children with CP had a higher HR (104.0 +/- 20.6 x 84.2 +/- 13.3 beats per minute; P < .0001), shorter PR interval (128.8 +/- 15.0 x 138.1 +/- 15.1 milliseconds; P = .0018), shorter QRS duration (77.4 +/- 8.6 x 82.0 +/- 8.7 milliseconds; P = .0180), QRS axis (46.0 degrees +/- 26.3 degrees x 59.7 degrees +/- 24.8 degrees; P = .0024) and T-wave axis (34.3 degrees +/- 28.9 degrees x 42.9 degrees +/- 17.1 degrees; P = .034) more horizontally positioned, and greater mean QTc (418.1 +/- 18.4 x 408.5 +/- 19.4 milliseconds; P = .0110). All the electrocardiogram variables were within the reference range for the age group including those with significant differences. Conclusion: Children with CP showed increased HR and other abnormal ECG findings in the setting of this investigation. Further studies are needed to explain our findings and to correlate the increased HR with situations such as dehydration, stress, and autonomic nervous disorders. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

How Much Older Do You Get When a Wrinkle Appears on Your Face? Modifying Age Estimates by Number of Wrinkles

The present study investigated the influence of wrinkles on facial age judgments. In Experiment 1, preadolescents, young adults, and middle-aged adults made categorical age judgments for male and female faces. The qualitative (type of wrinkle) and quantitative (density of wrinkles and depth of furrows) contributions of wrinkles were analyzed. Results indicated that the greater the number of wrinkles and the depth of furrows, the older a face was rated. The roles of the gender of the face and the age of the participants were discussed. In Experiment 2, participants performed relative age judgments by comparing pairs of faces. Results revealed that the number of wrinkles had more influence on the perceived facial age than the type of wrinkle. A MDS analysis showed the main dimensions on which participants based their judgments, namely, the number of wrinkles and the depth of furrows. We conclude that the quantitative component is more likely to increase perceived facial age. Nevertheless, other variables, such as the gender of the face and the age of the participants, also seem to be involved in the age estimation process.