Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Evaluating the use of an urban consolidation centre and electric vehicles in central London

The paper focuses on the role that can be played by urban consolidation centres (UCCs) in reducing freight traffic and its environmental impacts in towns and cities. It is based on the before and after evaluation of a trial led by a major stationery and office supplies company in which urban freight deliveries in central London made from a depot in the suburbs using diesel vehicles were replaced with the use of an urban micro-consolidation centre located in the delivery area together with the use of electrically-assisted cargo tricycles and electric vans. The results show that the total distance travelled and the CO2eq emissions per parcel delivered fell by 20% and 54% respectively as a result of this delivery system. However, the evaluation has also indicated that the distance travelled per parcel rose substantially in the City of London delivery area as a result of the electric vehicles having far smaller load limits in both weight and volume compared with diesel vans. But, at the same time, the trial system was able to virtually eliminate CO2eq emissions per parcel delivered in the City of London. The trial proved successful from the company's perspective in transport, environmental and financial terms. The company therefore decided to continue the operation beyond the end of the trial with it being officially launched during 2010.

Starting antidepressant use: a qualitative synthesis of UK and Australian data

Objective To explore people's experiences of starting antidepressant treatment. Design Qualitative interpretive approach combining thematic analysis with constant comparison. Relevant coding reports from the original studies (generated using NVivo) relating to initial experiences of antidepressants were explored in further detail, focusing on the ways in which participants discussed their experiences of taking or being prescribed an antidepressant for the first time. Participants 108 men and women aged 22–84 who had taken antidepressants for depression. Setting Respondents recruited throughout the UK during 2003–2004 and 2008 and 2012–2013 and in Australia during 2010–2011. Results People expressed a wide range of feelings about initiating antidepressant use. People's attitudes towards starting antidepressant use were shaped by stereotypes and stigmas related to perceived drug dependency and potentially extreme side effects. Anxieties were expressed about starting use, and about how long the antidepressant might begin to take effect, how much it might help or hinder them, and about what to expect in the initial weeks. People worried about the possibility of experiencing adverse effects and implications for their senses of self. Where people felt they had not been given sufficient time during their consultation information or support to take the medicines, the uncertainty could be particularly unsettling and impact on their ongoing views on and use of antidepressants as a viable treatment option. Conclusions Our paper is the first to explore in-depth patient existential concerns about start of antidepressant use using multicountry data. People need additional support when they make decisions about starting antidepressants. Health professionals can use our findings to better understand and explore with patients’ their concerns before their patients start antidepressants. These insights are key to supporting patients, many of whom feel intimidated by the prospect of taking antidepressants, especially during the uncertain first few weeks of treatment.

How women use and experience western herbal practice for distress: implications for health care and self-management approaches.

Introduction: In the UK, common mental health disorders account for one in five of all work days lost, and cost employers £25bn each year. Herbal medicine has been shown to potentially be of use for mental distress, including conditions like anxiety. In 2008, 35% of British adults surveyed claimed to have used herbal medicine at some stage, the majority of whom were women. However, there is little research into how the users of western herbal medicine (WHM) experience the practice of herbal medicine, or how these experiences may change over time. Our research is studying women in the south-east of the UK who are suffering from distress (either as a primary complaint, or associated with another condition) who are seeking the services of a herbalist who practices WHM. Aim: To investigate the experiences of western herbal practice by women who are suffering with distress. Methods: The study is using semi-structured interviews of around thirty women, to elicit patient narratives at two time points. Thematic analysis is being used to consider how distressed women perceive and experience their distress, their reasons for using WHM, what contribution the women perceive the consultation and treatment with WHM may or may not make to their wellbeing, and whether their experiences change over time. Currently, sixteen women have been interviewed, and a preliminary thematic analysis has commenced. Results: Preliminary finding suggest that not only do women internalise their distress, but that they are surprisingly isolated in how they deal with it, whilst some also express social embarrassment about their experiences. The women perceived that their distress is not always considered seriously from their medical practitioners’ point of view. These women are drawn to herbalists not only in a search for effective treatment, but also to be given time to have their story heard, to form a collaborative relationship, and to attempt to regain some control of their life. The herbal treatment is valued due to its perceived naturalness, and reduced risk of adverse side effects. Nevertheless, WHM is just one of a number of self-care strategies that women utilise to help manage their distress. Discussion: Effective treatment is not only dependent upon the herbs, but also upon an effective therapeutic relationship. Feeling that the herbalist hears their story, provides a treatment plan that is individually tailored to the patient, and is available (even outside of the consultation) are all important in helping to establish this relationship.