Adulteration and Poor Quality of Ginkgo biloba Supplements

Adulteration of Ginkgo products sold as unregistered supplements within the very large market of Ginkgo products (reputedly £650 million annually) through the post-extraction addition of cheaper (e.g. buckwheat derived) rutin is suspected to allow sub-standard products to appear satisfactory to third parties, e.g. secondary buyers along the value chain or any regulatory authorities. This study was therefore carried out to identify products that did not conform to their label specification and may have been actively adulterated to enable access to the global markets. 500 MHz Bruker NMR spectroscopy instrumentation combined with Topspin version 3.2 and a CAMAG HPTLC system (HPTLC Association for the analysis of Ginkgo biloba leaf) were used to generate NMR spectra (focusing on the 6–8 ppm region for analysis) and chromatograms, respectively. Out of the 35 samples of Ginkgo biloba analysed, 33 were found to contain elevated levels of rutin and/or quercetin, or low levels of Ginkgo metabolites when compared with the reference samples. Samples with disproportional levels of rutin or quercetin compared with other gingko metabolites are likely to be adulterated, either by accident or intentionally, and those samples with low or non-existent gingko metabolite content may have been produced using poor extraction techniques. Only two of the investigated samples were found to match with the High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC) fingerprint of the selected reference material. All others deviated significantly. One product contained a 5-hydroxytryptophan derivative, which is not a natural constituent of Ginkgo biloba. Overall, these examples either suggest a poor extraction technique or deliberate adulteration along the value chain. Investigating the ratio of different flavonoids e.g. quercetin and kaempferol using NMR spectroscopy and HPTLC will provide further evidence as to the degree and kind of adulteration of Gingko supplements. From a consumer perspective the equivalence in identity and overall quality of the products needs to be guaranteed for supplements too and not only for products produced according to a quality standard or pharmacopoeial monograph.

Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.

Residential heat pump installations: the role of vocational education and training

Meeting European emissions targets is reliant on innovative renewable technologies, particularly ‘renewable heat’ from heat pumps. Heat pump performance is driven by Carnot efficiency and optimum performance requires the lowest possible space heating flow temperatures leading to greater sensitivity to poor design, installation and operation. Does sufficient training and installer capacity exist for this technology? This paper situates the results of heat pump field trial performance in a socio-technical context, identifying how far installer competence requirements are met within the current vocational education and training (VET) system and considers possible futures. Few UK installers have formal heat pump qualifications at National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) level 3 and heat pump VET is generally through short-course provision where the structure of training is largely unregulated with no strict adherence to a common syllabus or a detailed training centre specification. Prerequisites for short-course trainees, specifically the demand for heating system knowledge based on metric design criteria, is limited and proof of ‘experience’ is an accepted alternative to formal educational qualifications. The lack of broader educational content and deficiencies in engineering knowledge will have profound negative impacts on both the performance and market acceptance of heat pumps. Possible futures to address this problem are identified.