A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.

The attractive female body weight and female body dissatisfaction in 26 countries across 10 world regions: results of the International Body Project I

This study reports results from the first International Body Project (IBP-I), which surveyed 7,434 individuals in 10 major world regions about body weight ideals and body dissatisfaction. Participants completed the female Contour Drawing Figure Rating Scale (CDFRS) and self-reported their exposure to Western and local media. Results indicated there were significant cross-regional differences in the ideal female figure and body dissatisfaction, but effect sizes were small across high-socioeconomic-status (SES) sites. Within cultures, heavier bodies were preferred in low-SES sites compared to high-SES sites in Malaysia and South Africa (ds = 1.94-2.49) but not in Austria. Participant age, body mass index (BMI), and Western media exposure predicted body weight ideals. BMI and Western media exposure predicted body dissatisfaction among women. Our results show that body dissatisfaction and desire for thinness is commonplace in high-SES settings across world regions, highlighting the need for international attention to this problem.

The river solofrana bicycle network: a project of green mobility

The article presents the “LungoSolofrana” project, carried out during the course “Urban and Mobility” in the academic year 2009/2010, held during the bachelor in Environmental Engineering at the University of Naples “Federico II”. The work has also been chosen as a finalist at the “UrbanPromo 2010” contest, the urban and territorial marketing event sponsored by the National Institute of Urban Planning and Urbit which was held in Venice in 2010. The project consists in a green mobility proposal, developed with an approach based on the integration of the environmental redevelopment of a portion of river Solofrana, located in the Salerno Province, and of the renewal of seven local stations of the railway line Mercato San Severino – Nocera Inferiore, including the realization of a cycle-path network for the natural environment fruition. Furthermore the work drew attention to the local and regional administration. The main intent of the project is to integrate sustainable mobility themes with the environment recovery in a territory affected by high environmental troubles. The area includes the municipalities of Nocera Inferiore, Nocera Superiore, Mercato San Severino, Castel San Giorgio and Roccapiemonte, situated in Salerno’s province, with a total population about 114.000 (font Demo ISTAT 2010). The area extension is about 84,30 sqkm and it is crossed by river Solofrana that is the central point of the project idea. The intervention strategy is defined in two kinds of actions: internal and external rail station interventions. The external rail station interventions regard the construction of pedestrian-cycle paths with the scope of increasing the spaces dedicated to cyclists and to pedestrians along the river Solofrana sides and to connect the urban areas with the railway station. In this way, it’s also possible to achieve an urban requalification of the interested area. On the other side, the interventions inside the station , according to Transit Oriented Development principles, aim at redeveloping common spaces with the insertion of new activities and at realizing new automatic cycle parks covered by photovoltaic panels. The project proposal consists of the urban regeneration of small railway stations along the route-Nocera-Codola Mercato San Severino in the province of Salerno, through interventions aimed at improving pedestrian accessibility. The project involves in particular the construction of pedestrian paths protected access to the station and connecting with neighboring towns and installation of innovative bike parking stations in elevation, covering surfaces coated with solar panels and spaces information. The project is aimed to propose a new model of sustainable transport for small and medium shifts as an alternative to private transportation

To what extent has research conducted by the GaWC Research Network aided our understanding of large EU law firm geography?

This thesis explores whether a specific group of large EU law firms exhibited multiple common behaviours regarding their EU geographies between 1998 and 2009. These potentially common behaviours included their preferences for trading in certain EU locations, their usage of law firm alliances, and the specific reasons why they opened or closed EU branch offices. If my hypothesis is confirmed, this may indicate that certain aspects of large law firm geography are predictable – a finding potentially of interest to various stakeholders globally, including legal regulators, academics and law firms. In testing my hypothesis, I have drawn on research conducted by the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) Research Network to assist me. Between 1999 and 2010, the GaWC published seven research papers exploring the geographies of large US and UK law firms. Several of the GaWC’s observations arising from these studies were evidence-based; others were speculative – including a novel approach for explaining legal practice branch office change, not adopted in research conducted previously or subsequently. By distilling the GaWC’s key observations these papers into a series of “sub-hypotheses”, I been able to test whether the geographical behaviours of my novel cohort of large EU law firms reflect those suggested by the GaWC. The more the GaWC’s suggested behaviours are observed among my cohort, the more my hypothesis will be supported. In conducting this exercise, I will additionally evaluate the extent to which the GaWC’s research has aided our understanding of large EU law firm geography. Ultimately, my findings broadly support most of the GaWC’s observations, notwithstanding our cohort differences and the speculative nature of several of the GaWC’s propositions. My investigation has also allowed me to refine several of the GaWC’s observations regarding commonly-observable large law firm geographical behaviours, while also addressing a key omission from the group’s research output.

Extended urbanization in small and medium-sized cities: the case of Cirebon Indonesia

Although urbanization in smaller cities is arguably not imperative, the future of urban living is no longer expected to be principally in mega-cities. People increasingly live in intermediate and smaller cities, in line with the proportion of people residing in urban areas, which is also gradually rising. Smaller cities in Indonesia, like other smaller cities in the developing world, are relatively densely populated, and many of them are experiencing extended urbanization, thereby exceeding their administrative boundaries. This paper seeks to explore the factors triggering urban development in these smaller cities, for a case in Indonesia. Urban change in Cirebon Region has accelerated in recent years, very much in line with the decentralization policy in Indonesia. This paper shows how urban change is in!uenced by economic restructuring, which encourages people to live closer to the core of the region, representing a new link between the core and new emerging urban areas in the region. This paper reveals these attributes to identify the characteristics of smaller urban centres, thereby contributing a more nuanced image of small cities in general.

Immersive Learning Research Network

Computer games have now been around for over three decades and the term serious games has been attributed to the use of computer games that are thought to have educational value. Game-based learning (GBL) has been applied in a number of different fields such as medicine, languages and software engineering. Furthermore, serious games can be a very effective as an instructional tool and can assist learning by providing an alternative way of presenting instructions and content on a supplementary level, and can promote student motivation and interest in subject matter resulting in enhanced learning effectiveness. REVLAW (Real and Virtual Reality Law) is a research project that the departments of Law and Computer Science of Westminster University have proposed as a new framework in which law students can explore a real case scenario using Virtual Reality (VR) technology to discover important pieces of evidence from a real-given scenario and make up their mind over the crime case if this is a murder or not. REVLAW integrates the immersion into VR as the perception of being physically present in a non-physical world. The paper presents the prototype framework and the mechanics used to make students focus on the crime case and make the best use of this immersive learning approach.

‘Never Let Me Down Again’1: Loyal customer attitudes towards ticket distribution channels for live music events: a netnographic exploration of the US leg of the Depeche Mode 2005–2006 World Tour

Ticket distribution channels for live music events have been revolutionised through the increased take-up of internet technologies, and the music supply-chain has evolved into a multi-channel value network. The assumption that this creates increased consumer autonomy and improved service quality is explored here through a case-study of the ticket pre-sale for the US leg of the Depeche Mode 2005–06 World Tour, which utilises an innovative virtual channel strategy, promoted as a service to loyal fans. A multi-method analysis, adopting Kozinets' (2002) Kozinets, R. V. 2002. The field behind the screen: using netnography for marketing research in online communities. Journal of Marketing Research, 39: 61–72. [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] netnography methodology, is employed to map responses of the band's serious fan base on an internet message board (IMB) throughout the tour pre-sale. The analysis focuses on concerns of pricing, ethics, scope of the offer, use of technology, service quality and perceived brand performance fit of channel partners. Findings indicate that fans behaviour is unpredictable in response to channel partners' performance, and that such offers need careful management to avoid alienation of loyal consumers.