An investigation of container train service provision and load factors in Great Britain

The continued growth in the volume of international trade poses considerable economic and sustainability challenges, particularly as transport routes become more congested and concern grows about the role of transport movements in accelerating climate change. Rail freight plays a major role in the inland transport of containers passing through the main British container ports, and potentially could play a more significant role in the future. However, there is little detailed understanding of the nature of this particular rail market, especially in terms its current operating efficiency. This paper examines container train service provision to/from the four main ports, based on analysis of a representative survey of more than 500 container trains between February and August 2007. The extent to which the existing capacity is utilised is presented, and scenarios by which the number of containers carried could be increased without requiring additional train service provision are modelled, to identify the theoretical potential for greater rail volumes. Finally, the paper identifies the challenges involved in achieving higher load factors, emphasising the importance both of wider supply chain considerations and government policy decision-making.

Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Distributed Agent-Based Load Balancer for Cloud Computing

In this paper we present a concept of an agent-based strategy to allocate services on a Cloud system without overloading nodes and maintaining the system stability with minimum cost. To provide a base for our research we specify an abstract model of cloud resources utilization, including multiple types of resources as well as considerations for the service migration costs. We also present an early version of simulation environment and a prototype of agent-based load balancer implemented in functional language Scala and Akka framework.

Volatility and VaR Forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange

This paper provides an empirical study to assess the forecasting performance of a wide range of models for predicting volatility and VaR in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The models performance was measured by using different loss functions and criteria. The results show that FIAPARCH processes capture and forecast more accurately the dynamics of IBEX-35 returns volatility. It is also observed that assuming a heavy-tailed distribution does not improve models ability for predicting volatility. However, when the aim is forecasting VaR, we find evidence of that the Student’s t FIAPARCH outperforms the models it nests the lower the target quantile.

A Meta-Heuristic Load Balancer for Cloud Computing Systems

This paper introduces a strategy to allocate services on a cloud system without overloading the nodes and maintaining the system stability with minimum cost. We specify an abstract model of cloud resources utilization, including multiple types of resources as well as considerations for the service migration costs. A prototype meta-heuristic load balancer is demonstrated and experimental results are presented and discussed. We also propose a novel genetic algorithm, where population is seeded with the outputs of other meta-heuristic algorithms.