New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions of different supply chains: a comparison of French, UK and Belgian cases

Freight transportation system is critical to economic activity but it carries significant environmental costs, notably GHG emissions and climate change : energy use and corresponding CO2 emissions is increasing faster in freight transport than in other sectors and this increase is primarily the result of increased trade. This paper compares the transport activities, associated energy consumption and CO2 emissions of different supply chains for a range of products in three countries: Belgium, France and United Kingdom. Among the products considered are furniture and ‘fruits & vegetables’. For each of these products, different supply chains, involving more or less transport activity and associated energy consumption are analysed in each country. The comparison highlights some of the main factors that influence GHG emissions for different supply chains and illustrates how they vary according to product and country of final distribution. In more detail, the paper addresses the main differences between the supply chains of these products namely, the origin of their sourcing, the logistical organisation between production and retail and different types of retail outlet. The origin of the sourcing impact is mainly related to distance. The impact of the logistical organisation between raw material and retail on GHG emissions is linked to the mode and vehicle choice and to the load factor. As for retail, the consumer trip emissions, between his home and the retail outlet, are also an important part of the whole supply chain emissions. It is worthwhile to notice that our goal in this project is to consider the whole supply chain, from production to consumption. Therefore a particular focus is put on the mobility behaviours of consumers purchasing the studied products during their shopping and dropping back home activities related to these products. Especially a web based survey has been conducted and the gathered results offer an opportunity for drawing a more detailed picture of the associated CO2 emissions. This paper uses the results of an ongoing research on supply chain energy efficiency, funded by ADEME (the French Energy Agency) through the French program on transport research (PREDIT). This research is based on a comprehensive review of the various approaches to quantifying the environmental impacts of supply chains together with data collection from a range of organisations including manufacturers, retailers and transport companies. We will first present the developed methodologies, then the results corresponding to each studied product will be described. A discussion of the potential application of the research approach to the wider debate about the environmental impact of freight transport and the scope for GHG emissions reduction targets to be achieved will be included.

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions of different supply chains: a comparison of French, UK and Belgian cases

Freight transportation system is critical to economic activity but it carries significant environmental costs, notably GHG emissions and climate change : energy use and corresponding CO2 emissions is increasing faster in freight transport than in other sectors and this increase is primarily the result of increased trade. This paper compares the transport activities, associated energy consumption and CO2 emissions of different supply chains for a range of products in three countries: Belgium, France and United Kingdom. Among the products considered are furniture and fruits & vegetables. For each of these products, different supply chains, involving more or less transport activity and associated energy consumption are analysed in each country. The comparison highlights some of the main factors that influence GHG emissions for different supply chains and illustrates how they vary according to product and country of final distribution. In more detail, the paper addresses the main differences between the supply chains of these products namely, the origin of their sourcing, the logistical organisation between production and retail and different types of retail outlet. The origin of the sourcing impact is mainly related to distance. The impact of the logistical organisation between raw material and retail on GHG emissions is linked to the mode and vehicle choice and to the load factor. As for retail, the consumer trip emissions, between his home and the retail outlet, are also an important part of the whole supply chain emissions. It is worthwhile to notice that our goal in this project is to consider the whole supply chain, from production to consumption. Therefore a particular focus is put on the mobility behaviours of consumers purchasing the studied products during their shopping and dropping back home activities related to these products. Especially a web based survey has been conducted and the gathered results offer an opportunity for drawing a more detailed picture of the associated CO2 emissions. This paper uses the results of an ongoing research on supply chain energy efficiency, funded by ADEME (the French Energy Agency) through the French program on transport research (PREDIT). This research is based on a comprehensive review of the various approaches to quantifying the environmental impacts of supply chains together with data collection from a range of organisations including manufacturers, retailers and transport companies. We will first present the developed methodologies, then the results corresponding to each studied product will be described. A discussion of the potential application of the research approach to the wider debate about the environmental impact of freight transport and the scope for GHG emissions reduction targets to be achieved will be included.

Business Models for Cloud Computing: Experiences from Developing Modeling & Simulation as a Service Applications in Industry

The potential of cloud computing is gaining significant interest in Modeling & Simulation (M&S). The underlying concept of using computing power as a utility is very attractive to users that can access state-of-the-art hardware and software without capital investment. Moreover, the cloud computing characteristics of rapid elasticity and the ability to scale up or down according to workload make it very attractive to numerous applications including M&S. Research and development work typically focuses on the implementation of cloud-based systems supporting M&S as a Service (MSaaS). Such systems are typically composed of a supply chain of technology services. How is the payment collected from the end-user and distributed to the stakeholders in the supply chain? We discuss the business aspects of developing a cloud platform for various M&S applications. Business models from the perspectives of the stakeholders involved in providing and using MSaaS and cloud computing are investigated and presented.