Applying complexity science to air traffic management

Complexity science is the multidisciplinary study of complex systems. Its marked network orientation lends itself well to transport contexts. Key features of complexity science are introduced and defined, with a specific focus on the application to air traffic management. An overview of complex network theory is presented, with examples of its corresponding metrics and multiple scales. Complexity science is starting to make important contributions to performance assessment and system design: selected, applied air traffic management case studies are explored. The important contexts of uncertainty, resilience and emergent behaviour are discussed, with future research priorities summarised.

En Route Speed Reduction Concept for Absorbing Air Traffic Flow Management Delays

This paper proposes an en route speed reduction to complement current ground delay practices in air traffic flow management. Given a nominal cruise speed, there exists a bounded range of speeds that allows aircraft to fly slower with the same or lower fuel consumption than the nominal flight. Therefore, flight times are increased and delay can be partially performed in the air, at no extra fuel cost for the operator. This concept has been analyzed in an initial feasibility study, computing the maximum amount of delay that can be performed in the air in some representative flights. The impact on fuel consumption has been analyzed, and two scenarios are proposed: the flight fuel remains the same as in the nominal flight, and some extra fuel allowance is permitted in order to face uncertainties. Results show significant values of airborne delay that may be useful in many situations, with the exception of short hauls where airborne delay may be too short. If cruise altitude is changed, the amount of airborne delay increases, since changes in cruise speed modify the optimal flight altitudes. From the analyzed flights, a linear dependency is found relating the airborne delay with the amount of extra fuel allowance.

A psychosocial approach to understanding pilot and controller acceptance of change in ATM, based on three CDA case studies

Next generation ATM systems cannot be implemented in a technological vacuum. The further ahead we look, the greater the likely impact of societal factors on such changes, and how they are prioritised and promoted. The equitable sustainability of travel behaviour is rising on the political agenda in Europe in an unprecedented manner. This paper examines pilot and controller attitudes towards Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs). It aims to promote a better understanding of acceptance of change in ATM. The focus is on the psychosocial context and the relationships between perceived societal and system benefits. Behavioural change appeared more correlated with such benefit perceptions in the case of the pilots. For the first time in the study of ATM implementation, and acceptance of change, this paper incorporates the Seven Stages of Change model, based on the constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. It employs a principal components (factor) analysis, and further explores the intercorrelations of benefit perceptions, known in psychology as the ‘halo effect’. Disbenefit perceptions may break down this effect, it appears. For implementers of change, this evidence suggests an approach in terms of reinforcing the dominant benefit(s) perceived, for sub-groups within which a halo effect is evident. In the absence of such an effect, perceived disbenefits, such as with respect to workload and capacity, should be off-set against specific, perceived benefits of the change, as far as possible. This methodology could be equally applied to other stakeholders, from strategic planners to the public. The set of three case studies will be extended beyond CDA trials. A set of concise guidelines will be published with a strong focus on practical advice, in addition to continued work enabling a better understanding of the expected, increasing psychosocial contributions to successful and unsuccessful efforts at ATM innovation and change.