BESTUFS policy and research recommendations IV: environmental zones in European cities, accommodating the needs of passenger and freight transport in cities, and BESTUFS Project recommendations

Recommendations report produced as part of the EC-funded BESTUFS project on urban freight transport.

Can the European low-cost airline boom continue? Implications for regional airports

At a time when the traditional major airlines have struggled to remain viable, the low-cost carriers have become the major success story of the European airline industry. This paper looks behind the headlines to show that although low-cost airlines have achieved much, they too have potential weaknesses and face a number of challenges in the years ahead. The secondary and regional airports that have benefited from low-cost carrier expansion are shown to be vulnerable to future changes in airline economics, government policy and patterns of air service. An analysis of routes from London demonstrates that the low-cost airlines have been more successful in some markets than others. To attractive and historically under-served leisure destinations in Southern Europe they have stimulated dramatic growth and achieved a dominant position. To major hub cities however they typically remain marginal players and to secondary points in Northern Europe their traffic has been largely diverted from existing operators. There is also evidence that the UK market is becoming saturated and new low-cost services are poaching traffic from other low-cost routes. Passenger compensation legislation and possible environmental taxes will hit the low-cost airline industry disproportionately hard. The high elasticities of demand to price in certain markets that these airlines have exploited will operate in reverse. One of the major elements of the low-cost business model involves the use of smaller uncongested airports. These offer faster turn-arounds and lower airport charges. In many cases, local and regional government has been willing to subsidise expansion of air services to assist with economic development or tourism objectives. However, recent court cases against Ryanair now threaten these financial arrangements. The paper also examines the catchment areas for airports with low-cost service. It is shown that as well as stimulating local demand, much traffic is captured from larger markets nearby through the differential in fare levels. This has implications for surface transport, as access to these regional airports often involves long journeys by private car. Consideration is then given to the feasibility of low-cost airlines expanding into the long-haul market or to regional operations with small aircraft. Many of the cost advantages are more muted on intercontinental services.

Dynamic cost indexing

This paper describes the development of a generic tool for dynamic cost indexing (DCI), which encompasses the ability to manage flight delay costs on a dynamic basis, trading accelerated fuel burn against ‘cost of time’. Many airlines have significant barriers to identifying which costs should be included in ‘cost of time’ calculations and how to quantify them. The need is highlighted to integrate historical passenger delay and policy data with real-time passenger connections data. The absence of industry standards for defining and interfacing necessary tools is recognised. Delay recovery decision windows and ATC cooperation are key constraints. DCI tools could also be used in the pre-departure phase, and may offer environmental decision support functionality: which could be used as a differentiating technology required for access to designated, future ‘green’ airspace. Short-term opportunities for saving fuel and/or reducing emissions are also identified.

Review of UK urban freight studies

Report produced as part of the Green Logistics project (EPSRC and Department for Transport funded). This report is based on a review of UK studies in which data has been collected to obtain an understanding of road-based urban freight transport activities and patterns of operation. Urban freight remains relatively under researched by comparison with passenger transport both in the UK and worldwide. However, in the UK there have been a number of studies that have attempted to investigate road-based freight operations since the 1960s. But no attempt has been made to draw together the results of these various studies and compare them. This is what is presented in this report. The report has studied the results of 30 UK urban freight studies carried out in the last decade in order to attempt to provide insight into urban freight activities in our towns and cities. It presents this current knowledge about urban freight transport activities in the UK from these studies, and compares the similarities and differences between study findings.

Old conflicts, new rivals? Airline competition in the European market

Christoph Franz of Lufthansa recently identified Ryanair, easyJet, Air Berlin and Emirates as the company’s main competitors – gone are the days when it could benchmark itself against BA or Air France-KLM! This paper probes behind the headlines to assess the extent to which different airlines are in competition, using evidence from the UK and mainland European markets. The issue of route versus network competition is addressed. Many regulators have put an emphasis on the former whereas the latter, although less obvious, can be more relevant. For example, BA and American will cease to compete between London and Dallas Fort Worth if their alliance obtains anti-trust immunity but 80% of the passengers on this route are connecting at one or both ends and hence arguably belong to different markets (e.g. London-San Francisco, Zurich-Dallas, Edinburgh-New Orleans) which may be highly contested. The remaining 20% of local traffic is actually insufficient to support a single point to point service in its own right. Estimates are made of the seat capacity major airlines are offering to the local market as distinct from feeding other routes. On a sector such as Manchester–Amsterdam, 60% of KLM’s passengers are transferring at Schiphol as against only 1% of bmibaby’s. Thus although KLM operates 5 flights and 630 seats per day against bmibaby’s 2 flights and 298 seats, in the point to point market bmibaby offers more seats than KLM. The growth of the Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) means that competition increasingly needs to be viewed on city pair markets (e.g. London-Rome) rather than airport pair markets (e.g. Heathrow-Fiumicino). As the stronger LCCs drive out weaker rivals and mainline carriers retrench to their major hubs, some markets now have fewer direct options than existed prior to the low cost boom. Timings and frequencies are considered, in particular the extent to which services are a true alternative especially for business travellers. LCCs typically offer lower frequencies and more unsociable timings (e.g. late evening arrivals at remote airports) as they are more focused on providing the cheapest service rather than the most convenient schedule. Interesting findings on ‘monopoly’ services are presented (including alliances) - certain airlines have many more of these than others. Lufthansa has a significant number of sectors to itself whereas at the other extreme British Airways has direct competition on almost every route in its network. Ryanair and flybe have a higher proportion of monopoly routes than easyJet or Air Berlin. In the domestic US market it has become apparent since deregulation that better financial returns can come from dominating a large number of smaller markets rather than being heavily exposed in the major markets - which are hotly fought over. Regional niches that appear too thin for Ryanair to serve (with its all 189 seat 737-800 fleet) are identified. Fare comparisons in contrasting markets provide some insights to marketing and pricing strategies. Data sources used include OAG (schedules and capacity), AEA (traditional European airlines traffic by region), the UK CAA (airport, airline and route traffic plus survey information of passenger types) and ICAO (international route traffic and capacity by carrier). It is concluded that airlines often have different competitors depending on the context but in surprisingly many cases there are actually few or no direct substitutes. The competitive process set in train by deregulation of European air services in the 1990s is leading back to one of natural monopolies and oblique alternatives. It is the names of the main participants that have changed however!

Considering the relationship between freight transport and urban form

There has been much discussion since the mid-1980s about the relationship between transport and urban form. However, all of this body of research has concerned itself with passenger transport (i.e. the movement of people). This report is intended as an initial investigation into the relationship between road freight transport and urban form. Important trends in road freight transport and logistics and the land use associated with these activities are discussed. Data about road freight transport activity by heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) in Britain that has been disaggregated from a UK government survey is analysed to investigate the nature of urban freight operations in sixteen selected urban areas. This includes analysis of the efficiency and transport intensity of these operations on journeys to, from and within each urban area. Scenarios concerning urban freight operations based on reductions in length of haul, and improvements in vehicle lading factors, vehicle carrying capacities and empty running are constructed in order to investigate the potential effect of such changes on the vehicle kilometres performed on journeys to, from and within the sixteen urban areas.

The challenge of managing airline delay costs

Estimates of airline delay costs as a function of delay magnitude are combined with fuel and (future) emissions charges to make cost-benefit trade-offs in the pre-departure and airborne phases. Hypothetical scenarios for the distribution of flow management slots are explored in terms of their cost and target-setting implications. The general superiority of passenger-centric metrics is of significance for delay measurement, although flight delays are still the only commonly-reported type of metric in both the US and Europe. There is a particular need for further research into reactionary (network) effects, especially with regard to passenger metrics and flow management delay.

Modelling the airline costs of delay propagation

Reactionary delays constitute nearly half of all delay minutes in Europe. A capped, multi-component model is presented for estimating reactionary delay costs, as a non-linear function of primary delay duration. Maximum Take-Off Weights, historically established as a charging mechanism, may be used to model delay costs. Current industry reporting on delay is flight-centric. Passenger-centric metrics are needed to better understand delay propagation. In ATM, it is important to take account of contrasting flight- and passenger-centric effects, caused by cancellations, for example. Costs to airlines and passenger disutility will both continue to be driven by delay relative to the original schedule.

River Sediment Sampling and Environment Quality Standards: A Case Study of the Ravensbourne River

Sediment is a major sink for heavy metals in river, and poses significant risks not only to river quality but also to aquatic and benthic organisms. At present in the UK, there are no mandatory sediment quality standards. This is partly due to insufficient toxicity data but also due to problems with identification of appropriate sediment monitoring and analytical techniques. The aim of this research was to examine the sampling different river sediment compartments in order to monitor compliance with any future UK sediment environmental quality standards (EQS). The significance of sediment physical and chemical characteristics on sampling and analysis was also determined. The Ravensbourne River, a tributary of the River Thames located in the highly urbanised South Eastern area of London was used for this study. Sediment was collected from the bed using the Van Veer grab, the bank using hand trowel, and from the water column (suspended sediment) using the time integrated suspended tube sampler between the period of July 2010 and December, 2011. The result for the total metal extraction carried out using aqua regia found that there were no significant differences in the metal concentrations retained in the different compartments by the <63μm sediment fraction but there were differences between the 63μm-2mm fractions of the bed and bank. The metal concentration in the bed, bank and suspended sediment exceeded the draft UK sediment quality guidelines. Sequential extraction was also carried out to determine metal speciation in each sediment compartment using the Maiz et al. (1997) and Tessier et al. (1979) methods. The Maiz et al. (1997) found over 80% of the metals in each sediment compartment were not bioavailable, while Tessier et al. (1979) method found most of the metals to be associated with the Fe/Mn and the residual phase. The bed sediment compartment and the <2mm (<63μm + 63μm-2mm) fraction appears to be the most suitable sediment sample for sediment monitoring from this study.

ADR in aviation: European and national perspectives

The air transport sector generates the largest share of cross-border consumer complaints, as a proportion of complaints received by the ECC-Net. Since the foundation of the ECC-Net in 2005, air passenger claims have made up around one fifth of the total caseload most years. A pan-European framework of bodies that handle consumer to business disputes will be implemented through the consumer ADR directive.4 Taking these developments into consideration, the aviation industry is an interesting sector to study. This paper looks at dispute resolution for air passengers in the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany, as well as at European level.