Volatility and VaR Forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange

This paper provides an empirical study to assess the forecasting performance of a wide range of models for predicting volatility and VaR in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The models performance was measured by using different loss functions and criteria. The results show that FIAPARCH processes capture and forecast more accurately the dynamics of IBEX-35 returns volatility. It is also observed that assuming a heavy-tailed distribution does not improve models ability for predicting volatility. However, when the aim is forecasting VaR, we find evidence of that the Student’s t FIAPARCH outperforms the models it nests the lower the target quantile.

Influence of LAR and VAR on Para-Aminopyridine Antimalarials Targetting Haematin in Chloroquine-Resistance

Antimalarial chloroquine (CQ) prevents haematin detoxication when CQ-base concentrates in the acidic digestive vacuole through protonation of its p-aminopyridine (pAP) basic aro- matic nitrogen and sidechain diethyl-N. CQ export through the variant vacuolar membrane export channel, PFCRT, causes CQ-resistance in Plasmodium falciparum but 3-methyl CQ (sontochin SC), des-ethyl amodiaquine (DAQ) and bis 4-aminoquinoline piperaquine (PQ) are still active. This is determined by changes in drug accumulation ratios in parasite lipid (LAR) and in vacuolar water (VAR). Higher LAR may facilitate drug binding to and blocking PFCRT and also aid haematin in lipid to bind drug. LAR for CQ is only 8.3; VAR is 143,482. More hydrophobic SC has LAR 143; VAR remains 68,523. Similarly DAQ with a phenol sub- stituent has LAR of 40.8, with VAR 89,366. In PQ, basicity of each pAP is reduced by distal piperazine N, allowing very high LAR of 973,492, retaining VAR of 104,378. In another bis quinoline, dichlorquinazine (DCQ), also active but clinically unsatisfactory, each pAP retains basicity, being insulated by a 2-carbon chain from a proximal nitrogen of the single linking piperazine. While LAR of 15,488 is still high, the lowest estimate of VAR approaches 4.9 million. DCQ may be expected to be very highly lysosomotropic and therefore potentially hepatotoxic. In 11 pAP antimalarials a quadratic relationship between logLAR and logRe- sistance Index (RI) was confirmed, while log (LAR/VAR) vs logRI for 12 was linear. Both might be used to predict the utility of structural modifications.