A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.

Performance Evaluation of a Statistical and a Neural Network Model for Nonrigid Shape-Based Registration

Shape-based registration methods frequently encounters in the domains of computer vision, image processing and medical imaging. The registration problem is to find an optimal transformation/mapping between sets of rigid or nonrigid objects and to automatically solve for correspondences. In this paper we present a comparison of two different probabilistic methods, the entropy and the growing neural gas network (GNG), as general feature-based registration algorithms. Using entropy shape modelling is performed by connecting the point sets with the highest probability of curvature information, while with GNG the points sets are connected using nearest-neighbour relationships derived from competitive hebbian learning. In order to compare performances we use different levels of shape deformation starting with a simple shape 2D MRI brain ventricles and moving to more complicated shapes like hands. Results both quantitatively and qualitatively are given for both sets.