Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Struggles for Citizenship in South Africa

South Africa’s first democratic constitution of 1996, which defines the content and scope of citizenship, emerged out of what the country’s Constitutional Court accurately described as ‘a deeply divided society characterized by strife, conflict, untold suffering and injustice which generated gross violations of human rights, the transgression of humanitarian principles in violent conflicts and a legacy of hatred, fear, guilt and revenge’ (cited in Jagwanth, 2003: 7). The constitution was internationally noteworthy for its expressed protection of women’s and sexual minority rights and its extension of rights of citizenship to socio-economic rights, such as rights of adequate healthcare, housing and education (SAGI, 1996). During South Africa’s first two decades of democracy, the Constitutional Court has proven its independence by advancing citizenship rights on a number of occasions (O’Regan, 2012). The struggle for citizenship was at the heart of the liberation struggle against the apartheid regime and within the complex dynamics of the anti-apartheid movement, increasingly sophisticated and intersectional demands for citizenship were made. South Africa’s constitutional rights for citizenship are not always matched in practice. The country’s high rates of sexual violence, ongoing poverty and inequality and public attitudes towards the rights of sexual minorities and immigrants lag well behind the spirit and letter of the constitution. Nevertheless, the achievement of formal citizenship rights in South Africa was the result of a prolonged and complex liberation struggle and analysis of South Africa demonstrates Werbner’s claim that ‘struggles over citizenship are thus struggles over the very meaning of politics and membership in a community’ (1999: 221). This chapter will begin with a contextual and historical overview before moving onto analyzing the development of non-racialism as a basis for citizenship, non-sexism and gendered citizenship, contestations of white, militarized citizenship and the achievement of sexual citizenship by the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) rights movement. As shall be made clear, all these citizenship demands emerged during the decades of the country’s liberation struggle.

Big Money is Moving in, Docklands Community Poster Project and posters from the East London Health Project

The exhibition took as its departure the rediscovery of the experience of the working photographer from 1920-1930, and the new intellectual context that emerged subsequent to 1968, that was marked by a new form of urban resistance.

Towards an Asynchronous Cinema: how can the asynchronous use of sound in artists' moving image underpin the creation of dialectic tension between the audio, the visual and the audience?

This PhD by publication examines selected practice-based audio-visual works made by the author over a ten-year period, placing them in a critical context. Central to the publications, and the focus of the thesis, is an exploration of the role of sound in the creation of dialectic tension between the audio, the visual and the audience. By first analysing a number of texts (films/videos and key writings) the thesis locates the principal issues and debates around the use of audio in artists’ moving image practice. From this it is argued that asynchronism, first advocated in 1929 by Pudovkin as a response to the advent of synchronised sound, can be used to articulate audio-visual relationships. Central to asynchronism’s application in this paper is a recognition of the propensity for sound and image to adhere, and in visual music for there to be a literal equation of audio with the visual, often married with a quest for the synaesthetic. These elements can either be used in an illusionist fashion, or employed as part of an anti-illusionist strategy for realising dialectic. Using this as a theoretical basis, the paper examines how the publications implement asynchronism, including digital mapping to facilitate innovative reciprocal sound and image combinations, and the asynchronous use of ‘found sound’ from a range of online sources to reframe the moving image. The synthesis of publications and practice demonstrates that asynchronism can both underpin the creation of dialectic, and be an integral component in an audio-visual anti-illusionist methodology.