Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Big Money is Moving in, Docklands Community Poster Project and posters from the East London Health Project

The exhibition took as its departure the rediscovery of the experience of the working photographer from 1920-1930, and the new intellectual context that emerged subsequent to 1968, that was marked by a new form of urban resistance.

Towards an Asynchronous Cinema: how can the asynchronous use of sound in artists' moving image underpin the creation of dialectic tension between the audio, the visual and the audience?

This PhD by publication examines selected practice-based audio-visual works made by the author over a ten-year period, placing them in a critical context. Central to the publications, and the focus of the thesis, is an exploration of the role of sound in the creation of dialectic tension between the audio, the visual and the audience. By first analysing a number of texts (films/videos and key writings) the thesis locates the principal issues and debates around the use of audio in artists’ moving image practice. From this it is argued that asynchronism, first advocated in 1929 by Pudovkin as a response to the advent of synchronised sound, can be used to articulate audio-visual relationships. Central to asynchronism’s application in this paper is a recognition of the propensity for sound and image to adhere, and in visual music for there to be a literal equation of audio with the visual, often married with a quest for the synaesthetic. These elements can either be used in an illusionist fashion, or employed as part of an anti-illusionist strategy for realising dialectic. Using this as a theoretical basis, the paper examines how the publications implement asynchronism, including digital mapping to facilitate innovative reciprocal sound and image combinations, and the asynchronous use of ‘found sound’ from a range of online sources to reframe the moving image. The synthesis of publications and practice demonstrates that asynchronism can both underpin the creation of dialectic, and be an integral component in an audio-visual anti-illusionist methodology.