Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.

Perceptual user interface framework for immersive information retrieval environments (An experimental framework for testing and rapid iteration)

The use of perceptual inputs is an emerging area within HCI that suggests a developing Perceptual User Interface (PUI) that may prove advantageous for those involved in mobile serious games and immersive social network environments. Since there are a large variety of input devices, software platforms, possible interactions, and myriad ways to combine all of the above elements in pursuit of a PUI, we propose in this paper a basic experimental framework that will be able to standardize study of the wide range of interactive applications for testing efficacy in learning or information retrieval and also suggest improvements to emerging PUIs by enabling quick iteration. This rapid iteration will start to define a targeted range of interactions that will be intuitive and comfortable as perceptual inputs, and enhance learning and information retention in comparison to traditional GUI systems. The work focuses on the planning of the technical development of two scenarios, and the first steps in developing a framework to evaluate these and other PUIs for efficacy and pedagogy.