Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Business Models for Cloud Computing: Experiences from Developing Modeling & Simulation as a Service Applications in Industry

The potential of cloud computing is gaining significant interest in Modeling & Simulation (M&S). The underlying concept of using computing power as a utility is very attractive to users that can access state-of-the-art hardware and software without capital investment. Moreover, the cloud computing characteristics of rapid elasticity and the ability to scale up or down according to workload make it very attractive to numerous applications including M&S. Research and development work typically focuses on the implementation of cloud-based systems supporting M&S as a Service (MSaaS). Such systems are typically composed of a supply chain of technology services. How is the payment collected from the end-user and distributed to the stakeholders in the supply chain? We discuss the business aspects of developing a cloud platform for various M&S applications. Business models from the perspectives of the stakeholders involved in providing and using MSaaS and cloud computing are investigated and presented.