Governing through community? A comparative study of changing management practices in mixed tenure housing development

An important feature of UK housing policy has been the promotion of consortia between local authorities, private developers and housing associations in order to develop mixed tenure estates to meet a wide range of housing needs. Central to this approach has been a focus on the management of neighbourhoods, based on the assumption that high densities and the inter-mixing of tenure exacerbates the potential for incivility and anti-social behaviour and exerts a disproportionate impact on residents' quality of life. Landlord strategies are therefore based on a need to address such issues at an early stage in the development. In some cases community-based, third sector organisations are established in order to manage community assets and to provide a community development service to residents. In others, a common response is to appoint caretakers and wardens to tackle social and environmental problems before they escalate and undermine residents’ quality of life. A number of innovative developments have promoted such neighbourhood governance approaches to housing practice by applying community development methods to address potential management problems. In the process, there is an increasing trend towards strategies that shape behaviour, govern ethical conduct, promote aesthetic standards and determine resident and landlord expectations. These processes can be related to the wider concept of governmentality whereby residents are encouraged to become actively engaged in managing their own environments, based on the assumption that this produces more cohesive, integrated communities and projects positive images. Evidence is emerging from a number of countries that increasingly integrated and mutually supportive roles and relationships between public, private and third sector agencies are transforming neighbourhood governance in similar ways. This paper will review the evidence for this trend towards community governance in mixed housing developments by drawing on a series of UK case studies prepared for two national agencies in 2007. It will review in particular the contractual arrangements with different tenures, identify codes and guidelines promoting 'good neighbour' behaviour and discuss the role of community development trusts and other neighbourhood organisations in providing facilities and services, designed to generate a well integrated community. The second part of the paper will review evidence from the USA and Australia to see how far there is a convergence in this respect in advanced economies. The paper will conclude by discussing the extent to which housing management practice is changing, particularly in areas of mixed development, whether there is a convergence in practice between different countries and how far these trends are supported by theories of governmentality.

Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Housing and neighbourhood development plans: an initial assessment of opportunities and impact of the Localism Act 2011 in England

The Localism Act 2011 created an opportunity for local communities to form Neighbourhood Forums and to prepare their own Neighbourhood Development Plans in urban and rural areas in England. Initial reactions suggested that, rather than leading to the development of more housing, these initiatives would confirm all the stereotypes of local residents blocking unwanted development in their defined neighbourhoods. However, neighbourhood plans need to be in general conformity with the Core Strategies of higher-tier plans and have to undergo an examination by an independent person appointed by government. This paper discusses the role and purpose of neighbourhood plans and the evidence base on which they are founded. It then reviews the ways in which housing strategies and evidence of need are reflected in a sample of plans which have been adopted to date. It concludes with an assessment of the broader impact of neighbourhood plans on the planning process.

Housing at the neighbourhood level: a review of the initial approaches to neighbourhood development plans under the Localism Act 2011 in England

The Localism Act 2011 created an opportunity for local communities to form neighbourhood forums and to prepare their own neighbourhood development plans in urban and rural areas in England. Initial reactions suggested that, rather than leading to the development of more housing, these initiatives would confirm all the stereotypes of local residents blocking unwanted development in their defined neighbourhoods. However, neighbourhood plans need to be in general conformity with the core strategies of higher-tier plans and often make provision for more new homes than planned before 2011. This article discusses the role and purpose of neighbourhood plans, the evidence base on which they are founded and some of the legal challenges which have helped clarify procedures. It then identifies two types of plan based on the ways housing strategies and evidence of need are reflected in a sample of 10 plans which have been made to date. It concludes that the voluntary nature of localism to date tends to favour more rural and affluent areas and ends with an assessment of the impact of neighbourhood plans on the planning process. It suggests that the implications for spatial planning may be far-reaching.

The Big Society and the conjunction of crises: Justifying welfare reform and undermining social housing

This article considers the idea of the ‘Big Society’ as part of a long-standing debate about the regulation of housing. Situating the concept within governance theory, the article considers how the idea of the Big Society was used by the UK coalition government to justify a radical restructuring of welfare provision. The fundamental rationale for this transformation was that the UK was forced to respond to a conjunction of crises in morality, the state, ideology and economics. Representing a fundamental departure from earlier attempts at welfare reform, the government has undertaken a reform programme which has had a severe effect on the social housing sector. The article argues that the result has been a combination of libertarianism and authoritarianism, alongside an intentionally more destructive combination of stigmatization and fatalism. The consequence is to undermine the principle of social housing which will not only prove detrimental for residents but raises significant dilemmas for those working in the housing sector.

Volatility and VaR Forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange

This paper provides an empirical study to assess the forecasting performance of a wide range of models for predicting volatility and VaR in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The models performance was measured by using different loss functions and criteria. The results show that FIAPARCH processes capture and forecast more accurately the dynamics of IBEX-35 returns volatility. It is also observed that assuming a heavy-tailed distribution does not improve models ability for predicting volatility. However, when the aim is forecasting VaR, we find evidence of that the Student’s t FIAPARCH outperforms the models it nests the lower the target quantile.

‘The Party’s Over’: Critical Junctures, Crises and the Politics of Housing Policy

The key argument set out in this article is that historical and comparative forms of investigation are necessary if we are to better understand the ambitions and scope of contemporary housing interventions. To demonstrate the veracity of our claim we have set out an analysis of UK housing polices enacted in the mid 1970s as a basis for comparison with those pursued forty years later. The article begins with a critical summary of some of the methodological approaches adopted by researchers used to interpret housing policy. In the main section we present our critical analysis of housing policy reforms (implemented by the Labour government between 1974 and 1979) noting both their achievements and limitations. In the concluding section, we use our interpretation of this period as a basis to judge contemporary housing policy and reflect on the methodological issues that arise from our analysis.

Housing market trend and rail transport investments in the city of Naples

Rail transport investments can influence housing market trends, as demonstrated in the literature. However many empirical researches highlight that different results can derive from different urban context applications and that each case should be threaten separately. It is for this reason that this paper is focused on the single case of the city of Naples, where many rail transport investments have been carried out in the last decades. The aim of this study is to give an interpretation of the housing values changes due to the opening of new metro stations. This study applies GIS tools in order to show the spatial distribution and the intensity of rail impacts in different areas of the urban system from 1994 to 2004. This study shows that the extent of the impacts varies from place to place and the effects intensity requires the presence of several complementary factors such as central location of the new stations and the presence of urban planning policies in the transit corridors. This again testifies how housing market is strictly related to the infrastructures investments planning and urban design.