Reality Effects: The Historical Novel and the Crisis of Fictionality in the First Decade of the Twenty-first Century

This chapter looks at the assumptions made about the 'fictionality' of prose fiction implicit in the contemporary historical novel. In particular it argues that the recent historical novel has developed a set of 'reality effects' which appear to look back to modernist writing, but in fact work to secure a disguised referentiality in the face of a loss of faith in the fictional.

At the end of the day: Macmillan's account of the Cuban missile crisis

Pre-publicity for the final volume of Harold Macmillan’s memoirs, At the End of the Day, stressed that it would provide the British side of the Cuban missile crisis for the first time. The Churchillian model chosen, changes required by the Cabinet Office and Macmillan’s desire to rebuke those political opponents who claimed that the crisis demonstrated a lack of British influence in Washington, however ensured a focus on his personal relationship with President Kennedy. His larding the text with contemporary observations from his diaries also skewed Macmillan’s account and, in particular, underplayed the significance of British moves at the United Nations in New York to secure a credible United Nations inspection regime and a US guarantee of the inviolability of Cuba. Careful reconstruction of Macmillan’s real-time experience of the Cuban missile crisis demonstrates the limitations of his own account of this event

Unnoticed apocalypse: the science fiction politics of urban crisis

The slogan ‘capitalism is crisis’ is one that has recently circulated swiftly around the global Occupy movement. From Schumpeter to Marx himself, the notion that the economic cycles instituted by capitalism require periodic crises as a condition of renewed capital accumulation is a commonplace. However, in a number of recent texts, this conception of crisis as constituting the very form of urban capitalist development itself has taken on a more explicitly apocalyptic tone, exemplified by the Invisible Committee's influential 2007 book The Coming Insurrection, and its account of what it calls simply ‘the metropolis’. ‘It is useless to wait’, write the text's anonymous authors, ‘for a breakthrough, for the revolution, the nuclear apocalypse or a social movement.… The catastrophe is not coming, it is here.’ In considering such an apocalyptic tone, this paper thus situates and interrogates the text in terms both of its vision of the metropolis as a terrain of total urbanization and its effective spatialization of the present as itself a kind of ‘unnoticed’ apocalypse: the catastrophe which is already here. It does so by approaching this not only apropos its place within contemporary debates surrounding leftist politics and crisis theory but also via its imaginative intersection with certain post-1960s science fiction apocalyptic motifs. What, the paper asks, does it mean to think apocalypse as the ongoing condition of the urban present itself, as well as the opening up of political and cultural opportunity for some speculative exit from its supposedly endless terrain?

Modifying “a very dangerous message": Britain, the non-aligned and the UN during the Cuban missile crisis

This chapter analyses the unfolding of the Cuban missile crisis in the context of the 17th General Assembly of the UN and shows that, contrary to earlier accounts, U Thant was responding to pressures from the non-aligned and the British in his attempts to handle the crisis.

Prime Minister and President: Harold Macmillan’s accounts of the Cuban missile crisis

This chapter analyses the successive ways in which Macmillan re-wrote his experiences of the Cuban missile crisis and in the process sought to re-configure the memory of the event in Britain.

Urban design, central London and the ‘crisis’ 2007-2013: business as usual?

London is changing, to a breath-taking extent. Beneath this fast paced activity, new patterns are forming and divisions that had been relatively unremarked before are now becoming increasingly visible. The ‘square mile’ of the City of London, which is now identified by some dramatically tall buildings, forms a contrast to the traditional urbanism of the City of Westminster, the majority of which is covered by conservation area legislation. This paper will consider this contrast from the perspective of urban design, examining both the wider development context for these changes and the separate design policies of these two historic organisations of local government. One of the key questions to be investigated is how these changes have impacted on the character of central London as a place. Moving on from the well-rehearsed debates about London’s skyline, the paper considers the significance of urban design in the context of a global urban spatial economy. It suggests that central London faces severe dilemmas about its future if the growth scenario continues.

Impact of the financial crisis on cross-border mergers and acquisitions and concentration in the global banking industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging-market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging-market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets.

Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.