Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Respiratory and non-respiratory sinus arrhythmia: implications for heart rate variability

The quantity of blood arriving at the left side of the heart oscillates throughout the breathing cycle due to the mechanics of breathing. Neurally regulated fluctuations in the length of the heart period act to dampen oscillations of the left ventricular stroke volume entering the aorta. We have reported that stroke volume oscillations but not spectral frequency variability stroke volume measures can be used to estimate the breathing frequency. This study investigated with the same recordings whether heart period oscillations or spectral heart rate variability measures could function as estimators of breathing frequency. Continuous 270 s cardiovascular recordings were obtained from 22 healthy adult volunteers in the supine and upright postures. Breathing was recorded simultaneously. Breathing frequency and heart period oscillation frequency were calculated manually, while heart rate variability spectral maximums were obtained using heart rate variability software. These estimates were compared to the breathing frequency using the Bland–Altman agreement procedure. Estimates were required to be \±10% (95% levels of agreement). The 95% levels of agreement measures for the heart period oscillation frequency (supine: -27.7 to 52.0%, upright: -37.8 to 45.9%) and the heart rate variability spectral maximum estimates (supine: -48.7 to 26.5% and -56.4 to 62.7%, upright: -37.8 to 39.3%) exceeded 10%. Multiple heart period oscillations were observed to occur during breathing cycles. Both respiratory and non-respiratory sinus arrhythmia was observed amongst healthy adults. This observation at least partly explains why heart period parameters and heart rate variability parameters are not reliable estimators of breathing frequency. In determining the validity of spectral heart rate variability measurements we suggest that it is the position of the spectral peaks and not the breathing