A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.

A multi-agent-based evolution model of innovation networks in dynamic environments

An innovation network can be considered as a complex adaptive system with evolution affected by dynamic environments. This paper establishes a multi-agent-based evolution model of innovation networks under dynamic settings through computational and logical modeling, and a multi-agent system paradigm. This evolution model is composed of several sub-models of agents' knowledge production by independent innovations in dynamic situations, knowledge learning by cooperative innovations covering agents' heterogeneities, decision-making for innovation selections, and knowledge update considering decay factors. On the basis of above-mentioned sub-models, an evolution rule for multi-agent based innovation network system is given. The proposed evolution model can be utilized to simulate and analyze different scenarios of innovation networks in various dynamic environments and support decision-making for innovation network optimization.

Dynamic Network Mechanisms of Relational Integration

A prominent hypothesis states that specialized neural modules within the human lateral frontopolar cortices (LFPCs) support “relational integration” (RI), the solving of complex problems using inter-related rules. However, it has been proposed that LFPC activity during RI could reflect the recruitment of additional “domain-general” resources when processing more difficult problems in general as opposed to RI specifi- cally. Moreover, theoretical research with computational models has demonstrated that RI may be supported by dynamic processes that occur throughout distributed networks of brain regions as opposed to within a discrete computational module. Here, we present fMRI findings from a novel deductive reasoning paradigm that controls for general difficulty while manipulating RI demands. In accordance with the domain- general perspective, we observe an increase in frontoparietal activation during challenging problems in general as opposed to RI specifically. Nonetheless, when examining frontoparietal activity using analyses of phase synchrony and psychophysiological interactions, we observe increased network connectivity during RI alone. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling with Bayesian model selection identifies the LFPC as the effective connectivity source. Based on these results, we propose that during RI an increase in network connectivity and a decrease in network metastability allows rules that are coded throughout working memory systems to be dynamically bound. This change in connectivity state is top-down propagated via a hierarchical system of domain-general networks with the LFPC at the apex. In this manner, the functional network perspective reconciles key propositions of the globalist, modular, and computational accounts of RI within a single unified framework.

Methods, Models & Systems for Dealing with Some Business, Management & Engineering Problems

This keynote presentation will report some of our research work and experience on the development and applications of relevant methods, models, systems and simulation techniques in support of different types and various levels of decision making for business, management and engineering. In particular, the following topics will be covered. Modelling, multi-agent-based simulation and analysis of the allocation management of carbon dioxide emission permits in China (Nanfeng Liu & Shuliang Li Agent-based simulation of the dynamic evolution of enterprise carbon assets (Yin Zeng & Shuliang Li) A framework & system for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps: a big data perspective (Jin Xu, Zheng Li, Shuliang Li & Yanyan Zhang) Open innovation: intelligent model, social media & complex adaptive system simulation (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A framework, model and software prototype for modelling and simulation for deshopping behaviour and how companies respond (Shawkat Rahman & Shuliang Li) Integrating multiple agents, simulation, knowledge bases and fuzzy logic for international marketing decision making (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A Web-based hybrid intelligent system for combined conventional, digital, mobile, social media and mobile marketing strategy formulation (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A hybrid intelligent model for Web & social media dynamics, and evolutionary and adaptive branding (Shuliang Li) A hybrid paradigm for modelling, simulation and analysis of brand virality in social media (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) Network configuration management: attack paradigms and architectures for computer network survivability (Tero Karvinen & Shuliang Li)