Places and preferences: a longitudinal analysis of self-selection and contextual effects

Contextual theories of political behaviour assert that the contexts in which people live influence their political beliefs and vote choices. Most studies of political assimilation, however, rely on cross-sectional data and fail to distinguish contextual influence from self-selection of individuals into areas. This paper advances understanding of this longstanding controversy by tracking thousands of individuals over an 18-year period in England. We observe individual-level left-right position and party identification before and after residential moves across areas with different political orientations. We find evidence of both non-random selection into areas and assimilation of new entrants to the majority political orientation. However, these effects are contingent on the type of area an individual moves to and, moreover, contextual effects are weak and dominated by the larger effect of self-selection into areas.

Risk Modelling Framework for Emergency Hospital Readmission, Using Hospital Episode Statistics Inpatient Data

The objective of this study was to develop, test and benchmark a framework and a predictive risk model for hospital emergency readmission within 12 months. We performed the development using routinely collected Hospital Episode Statistics data covering inpatient hospital admissions in England. Three different timeframes were used for training, testing and benchmarking: 1999 to 2004, 2000 to 2005 and 2004 to 2009 financial years. Each timeframe includes 20% of all inpatients admitted within the trigger year. The comparisons were made using positive predictive value, sensitivity and specificity for different risk cut-offs, risk bands and top risk segments, together with the receiver operating characteristic curve. The constructed Bayes Point Machine using this feature selection framework produces a risk probability for each admitted patient, and it was validated for different timeframes, sub-populations and cut-off points. At risk cut-off of 50%, the positive predictive value was 69.3% to 73.7%, the specificity was 88.0% to 88.9% and sensitivity was 44.5% to 46.3% across different timeframes. Also, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 73.0% to 74.3%. The developed framework and model performed considerably better than existing modelling approaches with high precision and moderate sensitivity.

Partner selection for reverse logistics centres in green supply chains: a fuzzy artificial immune optimization approach

The design of reverse logistics networks has now emerged as a major issue for manufacturers, not only in developed countries where legislation and societal pressures are strong, but also in developing countries where the adoption of reverse logistics practices may offer a competitive advantage. This paper presents a new model for partner selection for reverse logistic centres in green supply chains. The model offers three advantages. Firstly, it enables economic, environment, and social factors to be considered simultaneously. Secondly, by integrating fuzzy set theory and artificial immune optimization technology, it enables both quantitative and qualitative criteria to be considered simultaneously throughout the whole decision-making process. Thirdly, it extends the flat criteria structure for partner selection evaluation for reverse logistics centres to the more suitable hierarchy structure. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by means of an empirical application based on data from a Chinese electronic equipment and instruments manufacturing company.