3 resultados para Church statistics

em WestminsterResearch - UK


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David Peace’s novel Nineteen Seventy-seven concludes with the hack journalist Jack Whitehead being granted a terrifying apocalyptic vision, seconds before he is trepanned with a Phillips screwdriver by the sinister Reverend Martin Laws. Included in this vision is a curious reference to the wreck of the White Ship, a maritime disaster in 1120 that drowned William Atheling, heir to the English throne, and ultimately doomed England to years of civil war. This article explores Peace’s strange use of the shipwreck in his “Red Riding Quartet,” particularly the way he links it—in the quartet’s final volume, Nineteen Eighty Three—to a revisionist account of the aftermath of the crucifixion that leads a wounded Christ to a tragic death in the cold waters of the English Channel.

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The objective of this study was to develop, test and benchmark a framework and a predictive risk model for hospital emergency readmission within 12 months. We performed the development using routinely collected Hospital Episode Statistics data covering inpatient hospital admissions in England. Three different timeframes were used for training, testing and benchmarking: 1999 to 2004, 2000 to 2005 and 2004 to 2009 financial years. Each timeframe includes 20% of all inpatients admitted within the trigger year. The comparisons were made using positive predictive value, sensitivity and specificity for different risk cut-offs, risk bands and top risk segments, together with the receiver operating characteristic curve. The constructed Bayes Point Machine using this feature selection framework produces a risk probability for each admitted patient, and it was validated for different timeframes, sub-populations and cut-off points. At risk cut-off of 50%, the positive predictive value was 69.3% to 73.7%, the specificity was 88.0% to 88.9% and sensitivity was 44.5% to 46.3% across different timeframes. Also, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 73.0% to 74.3%. The developed framework and model performed considerably better than existing modelling approaches with high precision and moderate sensitivity.