Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Visual Approaches to Property Law Pedagogy

Purpose - To consider a more visual approach to property law teaching practices. This will be achieved by exploring the existence of ‘visual learners’ as a student body, evaluating the use of more visual teaching techniques in academic practice, recognising the historic dominance of text in legal education, and examining the potential for heightening visual teaching practices in the teaching of property law. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews and analyses some of the available literature on visual pedagogy, and visual approaches to legal education, but also introduces an amount of academic practitioner analysis. Findings – This paper evidences that, rather than focusing on the categorisation of ‘visual learner’, the modern academic practitioner should employ the customary use of more visual stimuli; consequently becoming a more ‘visual teacher’. This paper demonstrates that these practices, if performed effectively, can impact upon the information literacy of the whole student body: It also proffers a number of suggestions as to how this could be achieved within property law teaching practices. Practical implications – The paper will provide support for early-career academic practitioners, who are entering a teaching profession in a period of accelerated and continual change, by presenting an overview of pedagogic practices in the area. It will also provide a stimulus for those currently teaching on property law modules and support their transition to a more visual form of teaching practice. Originality/value – This paper provides a comprehensive overview of visual pedagogy in legal education, and specifically within that of property law, which has not been conducted elsewhere.