The onset of lactase persistence in Europe

The genomic region containing the lactase (LCT) gene shows one of the strongest signals of positive selection in Europeans, detectable using a range of approaches including haplotype length, linked microsatellite variation and population-differentiation-based tests. Lactase is the enzyme that carries out the digestion of the milk sugar lactose. Its expression decreases at some point after the weaning period is over in most mammals and in around 68% of all living adult humans. However, in some humans, particularly those from populations with a history of dairying, lactase is expressed throughout adulthood. This trait is called lactase persistence (LP), and in people of European ancestry, it is associated with a single mutation (-13910*T). Evidence from the detection of dairy fat residues in potsherds, and allele frequencies in ancient DNA samples suggest that LP arose after dairying practices had developed. However, the reasons why LP may have been advantageous are still debated, and the respective contribution of demography and natural selection remains to be disentangled. This paper discusses various studies, from archaeology to population genetics, that have shed some light on the subject by investigating the evolution of LP in Europe.

Evaluating monthly volatility forecasts using proxies at different frequencies

This paper analyses the forecastability of stock returns monthly volatility. The forecast obtained from GARCH and AGARCH models with Normal and Student's t errors are evaluated with respect to proxies for the unobserved volatility obtained through sampling at different frequencies. It is found that aggregation of daily multi-step ahead GARCH-type forecasts provide rather accurate predictions of monthly volatility.

Impact of selection and demography on the diffusion of lactase persistence.

The lactase enzyme allows lactose digestion in fresh milk. Its activity strongly decreases after the weaning phase in most humans, but persists at a high frequency in Europe and some nomadic populations. Two hypotheses are usually proposed to explain the particular distribution of the lactase persistence phenotype. The gene-culture coevolution hypothesis supposes a nutritional advantage of lactose digestion in pastoral populations. The calcium assimilation hypothesis suggests that carriers of the lactase persistence allele(s) (LCT*P) are favoured in high-latitude regions, where sunshine is insufficient to allow accurate vitamin-D synthesis. In this work, we test the validity of these two hypotheses on a large worldwide dataset of lactase persistence frequencies by using several complementary approaches. Methodology We first analyse the distribution of lactase persistence in various continents in relation to geographic variation, pastoralism levels, and the genetic patterns observed for other independent polymorphisms. Then we use computer simulations and a large database of archaeological dates for the introduction of domestication to explore the evolution of these frequencies in Europe according to different demographic scenarios and selection intensities. Conclusions Our results show that gene-culture coevolution is a likely hypothesis in Africa as high LCT*P frequencies are preferentially found in pastoral populations. In Europe, we show that population history played an important role in the diffusion of lactase persistence over the continent. Moreover, selection pressure on lactase persistence has been very high in the North-western part of the continent, by contrast to the South-eastern part where genetic drift alone can explain the observed frequencies. This selection pressure increasing with latitude is highly compatible with the calcium assimilation hypothesis while the gene-culture coevolution hypothesis cannot be ruled out if a positively selected lactase gene was carried at the front of the expansion wave during the Neolithic transition in Europe.