Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR approach

A growing literature considers the impact of uncertainty using SVAR models that include proxies for uncertainty shocks as endogenous variables. In this paper we consider the impact of measurement error in these proxies on the estimated impulse responses. We show via a Monte-Carlo experiment that measurement error can result in attenuation bias in impulse responses. In contrast, the proxy SVAR that uses the uncertainty shock proxy as an instrument does not su¤er from this bias. Applying this latter method to the Bloom (2009) data-set results in impulse responses to uncertainty shocks that are larger in magnitude and more persistent than those obtained from a recursive SVAR.

Post-Transcriptional Regulation of BCL2 mRNA by the RNA-Binding Protein ZFP36L1 in Malignant B Cells

The human ZFP36 zinc finger protein family consists of ZFP36, ZFP36L1, and ZFP36L2. These proteins regulate various cellular processes, including cell apoptosis, by binding to adenine uridine rich elements in the 3′ untranslated regions of sets of target mRNAs to promote their degradation. The pro-apoptotic and other functions of ZFP36 family members have been implicated in the pathogenesis of lymphoid malignancies. To identify candidate mRNAs that are targeted in the pro-apoptotic response by ZFP36L1, we reverse-engineered a gene regulatory network for all three ZFP36 family members using the ‘maximum information coefficient’ (MIC) for target gene inference on a large microarray gene expression dataset representing cells of diverse histological origin. Of the three inferred ZFP36L1 mRNA targets that were identified, we focussed on experimental validation of mRNA for the pro-survival protein, BCL2, as a target for ZFP36L1. RNA electrophoretic mobility shift assay experiments revealed that ZFP36L1 interacted with the BCL2 adenine uridine rich element. In murine BCL1 leukemia cells stably transduced with a ZFP36L1 ShRNA lentiviral construct, BCL2 mRNA degradation was significantly delayed compared to control lentiviral expressing cells and ZFP36L1 knockdown in different cell types (BCL1, ACHN, Ramos), resulted in increased levels of BCL2 mRNA levels compared to control cells. 3′ untranslated region luciferase reporter assays in HEK293T cells showed that wild type but not zinc finger mutant ZFP36L1 protein was able to downregulate a BCL2 construct containing the BCL2 adenine uridine rich element and removal of the adenine uridine rich core from the BCL2 3′ untranslated region in the reporter construct significantly reduced the ability of ZFP36L1 to mediate this effect. Taken together, our data are consistent with ZFP36L1 interacting with and mediating degradation of BCL2 mRNA as an important target through which ZFP36L1 mediates its pro-apoptotic effects in malignant B-cells.

Network mechanisms of intentional learning

The ability to learn new tasks rapidly is a prominent characteristic of human behaviour. This ability relies on flex- ible cognitive systems that adapt in order to encode temporary programs for processing non-automated tasks. Previous functional imaging studies have revealed distinct roles for the lateral frontal cortices (LFCs) and the ven- tral striatum in intentional learning processes. However, the human LFCs are complex; they house multiple dis- tinct sub-regions, each of which co-activates with a different functional network. It remains unclear how these LFC networks differ in their functions and how they coordinate with each other, and the ventral striatum, to support intentional learning. Here, we apply a suite of fMRI connectivity methods to determine how LFC networks activate and interact at different stages of two novel tasks, in which arbitrary stimulus-response rules are learnt either from explicit instruction or by trial-and-error. We report that the networks activate en masse and in synchrony when novel rules are being learnt from instruction. However, these networks are not homogeneous in their functions; instead, the directed connectivities between them vary asymmetrically across the learning timecourse and they disengage from the task sequentially along a rostro-caudal axis. Furthermore, when negative feedback indicates the need to switch to alternative stimulus–response rules, there is additional input to the LFC networks from the ventral striatum. These results support the hypotheses that LFC networks interact as a hierarchical system during intentional learning and that signals from the ventral striatum have a driving influence on this system when the internal program for processing the task is updated.