New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

The complexities of tourism and regeneration: the case of the 2012 Olympic Games

Regeneration proposals typically seek to use a range of physical, economic and social initiatives to tackle inequality and improve areas. Often they attempt to change the image of places, making them more attractive to tourists, investors, and residents. The role of tourism in these regeneration processes is complex and contested. Tourism elements are often not well understood by decision-makers and sometimes create tensions with wider social regeneration aspirations. Using concepts from complexity theory, this paper interrogates the relationship between tourism and wider regeneration aspirations connected with the 2012 Olympic Games. It uses complexity theory to explore the context within which policies are developed, and the relationships between different policy initiatives. Both are highly complex, constantly evolving and sometimes ambiguous. It argues complexity concepts might be used to help to develop deeper understanding of the relationships between tourism and regeneration.