New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

The signalling effect of eco-labels in modern coastal tourism

As the demand for environmentally sustainable tourism grows, eco-labels are becoming increasingly popular as a signal of environmental quality. However, the existence of a causal link between awarding a seaside eco-label and the increase in tourism flows is still under discussion in the literature. In this article, we gauge the signalling impact of a specific eco-label, the Blue Flag award, using detailed data on tourism flows to seaside Italian destinations during the period 2008-2012. We adopt a recent econometric modelling strategy - the synthetic control method - in shaping estimation results and testing the sensitivity and robustness of our results. We find that being awarded the Blue Flag increases the flow of domestic tourists for up to three seasons after assignment. However, we find no effect for the flow of international tourists. Investigating the mechanisms driving the results, we find that the award of a Blue Flag only positively affects the flow of domestic tourists when it is used as a driver of organisation, coordination and integrated management of the tourism supply.