Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Consumer confidence indices and stock markets’ meltdowns

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries’ economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000–2002 and the 2007–2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets’ investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann 1990); however, we find that the CCI–stock market relationship is not universally positive.We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.

The Finometer can function as a standalone instrument in blood pressure variability studies and does not require support equipment to determine breathing frequency

Objective: The Finometer (FMS, Finapres Measurement Systems, Amsterdam) records the beat-to-beat finger pulse contour and has been recommended for research studies assessing shortterm changes of blood pressure and its variability. Variability measured in the frequency domain using spectral analysis requires that the impact of breathing be restricted to high frequency spectra (> 0.15 Hz) so data from participants needs to be excluded when the breathing impact occurs in the low frequency spectra (0.04 - 0.15 Hz). This study tested whether breathing frequency can be estimated from standard Finometer recordings using either stroke volume oscillation frequency or spectral stroke volume variability maximum scores. Methods: 22 healthy volunteers were tested for 270s in the supine and upright positions. Finometer recorded the finger pulse contour and a respiratory transducer recorded breathing. Stoke volume oscillation frequency was calculated manually while the stroke volume spectral maximums were obtained using the software Cardiovascular Parameter Analysis (Nevrokard Kiauta, Izola, Slovenia). These estimates were compared to the breathing frequency using the Bland-Altman procedures. Results: Stroke volume oscillation frequency estimated breathing frequency to <±10% 95% levels of agreement in both supine (-7.7 to 7.0%) and upright (-6.7 to 5.4%) postures. Stroke volume variability maximum scores did not accurately estimate breathing frequency. Conclusions: Breathing frequency can be accurately derived from standard Finometer recordings using stroke volume oscillations for healthy individuals in both supine and upright postures. The Finometer can function as a standalone instrument in blood pressure variability studies and does not require support equipment to determine breathing frequency.