Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

The continuing popularity of the neighbourhood and neighbourhood governance in the transition from the 'big state' to the 'big society' paradigm

The neighbourhood in both the UK and Europe continues to dominate thinking about the quality of life in local communities, representation and empowerment, and how local services can be delivered most effectively. For several decades a series of centrally funded programmes in neighbour- hood governance have targeted localities suffering deprivation and social exclusion in England. From these much can be learnt about the strengths and limitations of a local approach to achieving multiple objectives.We review the findings of a case study of neighbourhood governance in the City of Westminster and draw on evaluations of two national programmes. In the conclusions we discuss the problems arising from multiple objectives and examine the prospects for neighbourhood governance as the national paradigm moves away from `big state' solutions towards the less-well-defined `big society' approach and the reinvention of `localism'. While the rationale for neighbourhood governance may change, the `neighbourhood' as a site for service delivery and planning remains as important now as in the past.

Internalising the external costs of light goods vehicle transport in Britain

To what extent do the taxes paid by the light goods vehicles (LGVs) users in Britain cover their allocated infrastructural, environmental and congestion costs? This report is a continuation of a study on the internalisation of the external costs of heavy goods vehicle activity. Research undertaken jointly by the Transport Studies Group at University of Westminster and Logistics Research Centre at Heriot-Watt University has attempted to answer this question using official government transport statistics and monetary valuations for the external costs.

How does globalization affect the tax burden on labour income, capital income and consumption in different welfare regimes? The case of Western and Eastern EU Member States

This article analyzes the effects of globalization on implicit tax rates (ITRs) on labor income, capital income, and consumption in the EU15 and Central and Eastern European New Member States (CEE NMS). We find supportive evidence for an increase in the ITR on labor income in the EU15, but no effect on the ITR on capital income. There is evidence of convergence in terms of the ITR on consumption, as countries with higher than average ITR on consumption respond to globalization by decreasing their tax rates. There are important differences among the welfare regimes within the EU15. Social-democratic countries have decreased the tax burden on capital, but increased that on labor due to globalization. Globalization exerts a pressure to increase taxes on labor income in the conservative and liberal regimes as well. Taxes on consumption decrease in response to globalization in the conservative and social-democratic regimes. In the CEE NMS, there is no effect of globalization on the ITR on labor and capital income, but we find a negative impact on the ITR on consumption in the CEE NMS with higher than average ITR on consumption. (JEL H23, H24, H25, F19, F21)

Financialisation, income distribution and aggregate demand in the USA

This paper investigates the effects of financialisation and functional income distribution on aggregate demand in the USA by estimating the effects of the increase in rentier income (dividends and interest payments) and housing and financial wealth on consumption and investment. The redistribution of income in favour of profits suppresses consumption, whereas the increase in the rentier income and wealth has positive effects. A higher rentier income decreases investment. Without the wealth effects, the overall effect of the changes in distribution on aggregate demand would have been negative. Thus a pro-capital income distribution leads to a slightly negative effect on growth, i.e. the USA economy is moderately wage-led.