Impact of the financial crisis on cross-border mergers and acquisitions and concentration in the global banking industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging-market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging-market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets.

Long-term performance of mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN countries

The study looks at mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in ASEAN countries and examines the post-M&A performance using data from 2001 to 2012. The industry-adjusted operating performance tends to decline in the 3 years following an M&A. Yet, the results suggest that M&As completed during the financial crisis are more profitable than those implemented before and/or after the crisis. We argue that this is mainly due to the synergies created between the firms’ resources during the crisis which augur well for firms’ economic performance. We find that, during the crisis, certain characteristics of the firms like the relative size of the target, cross-border nature of deals, acquirer's cash reserves and friendly nature of deals are important determinants of long-term post-M&A operating performance. However, for M&As during the crisis, there appears to be no relationship between performance and firms’ characteristics linked to M&A activity such as payment method, industry relatedness and percentage of target's share acquired.

The motives and performance of cross-border acquirers from emerging economies: Comparison between Chinese and Indian firms

During the recent decade, the world has witnessed the rapid growth of MNEs from emerging economies. Their increasing participation in cross-border mergers and acquisitions has raised great attention in the extant literature. This study evaluates the value creation from these cross-border transactions from two representative emerging countries, namely China and India, and determines factors that result in the different performance of these international acquisition activities. Cross-border acquisitions conducted by these countries’ companies indeed lead to significant shareholder wealth creation. Furthermore, Indian shareholders are more likely to benefit from deals in small cultural distance countries, while Chinese investors gain from the cross-border expansion of manufacturing companies. Location also affects the performance of cross-border acquisitions, with acquisitions into developed countries generating higher returns to shareholders. Our sample consists of 203 Indian and 63 Chinese cross-border deals over the period 2000–2010 and our results hold after controlling for various deal-level and firm-level characteristics.

Multivariate Moments Expansion Density: Application of the Dynamic Equicorrelation Model

In this study, we propose a new semi-nonparametric (SNP) density model for describing the density of portfolio returns. This distribution, which we refer to as the multivariate moments expansion (MME), admits any non-Gaussian (multivariate) distribution as its basis because it is specified directly in terms of the basis density’s moments. To obtain the expansion of the Gaussian density, the MME is a reformulation of the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC), but the MME is much simpler and tractable than the MGC when positive transformations are used to produce well-defined densities. As an empirical application, we extend the dynamic conditional equicorrelation (DECO) model to an SNP framework using the MME. The resulting model is parameterized in a feasible manner to admit two-stage consistent estimation and it represents the DECO as well as the salient non-Gaussian features of portfolio return distributions. The in- and out-of-sample performance of a MME-DECO model of a portfolio of 10 assets demonstrate that it can be a useful tool for risk management purposes.

Evaluating monthly volatility forecasts using proxies at different frequencies

This paper analyses the forecastability of stock returns monthly volatility. The forecast obtained from GARCH and AGARCH models with Normal and Student's t errors are evaluated with respect to proxies for the unobserved volatility obtained through sampling at different frequencies. It is found that aggregation of daily multi-step ahead GARCH-type forecasts provide rather accurate predictions of monthly volatility.

Should I stay or should I go? Sibling effects in household formation

This paper analyzes peer effects among siblings in the decision to leave parental home. Estimating peer effects is challenging because of problems of refection, endogenous group formation, and correlated unobservables. We overcome these issues using the exogenous variation in siblings' household formation implied by the eligibility rules for a Spanish rental subsidy. Our results show that sibling effects are negative and that these effects can be explained by the presence of old or ill parents. Sibling effects turn positive from older to younger close-in-age siblings, when imitation is more likely to prevail. Our findings indicate that policy makers who aim at fostering household formation should target the household rather than the individual and combine policies for young adults with policies for the elderly.

Should cash transfer be conditional? Condition, preventive care, and health outcomes

We study a Conditional Cash Transfer program in which the cash transfers to the mother only depends on the fulfillment of the national preventive visit schedule by her children born before she registered in the program. We estimate that preventive visits of children born after the mother registered in the program are 50% lower because they are excluded from the conditionality requirement. Using the same variation, we also show that attendance to preventive care improves children's health.

Board attributes that increase firm risk - evidence from the UK

Purpose – The aim of the paper is to identify the board attributes that significantly increase firm risk. The study aims to find if board size, percentage of non-executive directors, women on the board, a powerful CEO, equity ownership amongst executive board directors and institutional investor ownership, are associated with firm risk. This is the first study that examines which board attributes increase firm risk using a UK based sample. Design/methodology/approach – This empirical study collected secondary data from Bloomberg and Morningstar databases. The data sample is an unbalanced panel of 260 companies’ secondary data on FTSE 350 index in the UK, from 2005 to 2010. The data was statistically analysed using STATA. Findings – The study establishes the board attributes that were significantly related to firm risk. The results show that a board which can increase firm risk is one that is small in size,has high equity ownership amongst executive board directors and has high institutional investor ownership. Research limitations/implications – The governance culture and regulatory system in the UK is different from other countries. Since the data is a UK based sample, the results can lack generalisability. Practical implications – The results are useful for investors who invest in large firms, to have the knowledge about the board attributes that can increase firm risk. Regulators can also use the results to strengthen regulatory guidelines. Originality/value – This study fills the gap in knowledge in UK governance literature on the board attributes that can increase firm risk.

Do financial distress and liquidity crises affect value and size premiums?

This study investigates the impact of liquidity crises on the relationship between stock (value and size) premiums and default risk in the US market. It first examines whether financial distress can explain value and size premiums, and then, subsequently, aims to determine whether liquidity crises increase the risk of value and size premium investment strategies. The study employs a time-varying approach and a sample of US stock returns for the period between January 1982 and March 2011, a period which includes the current liquidity crisis, so as to examine the relationship between default risk, liquidity crises and value and size premiums. The findings indicate that the default premium has explanatory power for value and size and premiums, which affect firms with different characteristics. We also find that liquidity crises may actually increase the risks related to size and value premium strategies.

Private school quality in Italy

Private school enrolment may lead to worse subsequent performance in further education or in the labour market. If students differ in their ability not only to pay but to take advantage of educational opportunities (“talent” for short), private schools attract a worse pool of students when publicly funded schools are better suited to foster progress by more talented students. In the data we analyze, the impact of observable talent proxies on educational and labour market outcomes is indeed more positive for students who (endogenously) choose to attend public schools than for those who choose to pay for private education.

Volatility and VaR Forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange

This paper provides an empirical study to assess the forecasting performance of a wide range of models for predicting volatility and VaR in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The models performance was measured by using different loss functions and criteria. The results show that FIAPARCH processes capture and forecast more accurately the dynamics of IBEX-35 returns volatility. It is also observed that assuming a heavy-tailed distribution does not improve models ability for predicting volatility. However, when the aim is forecasting VaR, we find evidence of that the Student’s t FIAPARCH outperforms the models it nests the lower the target quantile.